What race do we have all wrong?

[MillennialModerate]

Which Senate race do you think is being totally misjudged by either posters on Atlas, the national media or even the local media in that particular state?

I think Indiana and Nevada.

Nevada I think will be an upset win for the Republicans

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

West Virginia.

[MT Treasurer]

Indiana. I think Braun will do better than most people expect, although I still think it’s a Toss-up.

[Beet]

West Virginia.

[libertpaulian]

West Virginia.

How so?  Manchin is an appropriate fit for the state, while Morrisey seems to be a dud candidate.

[Xing]

Nevada, and not because Heller's going to win, lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

West Virginia.

How so?  Manchin is an appropriate fit for the state, while Morrisey seems to be a dud candidate.

Pure Trumpism gives Morrisey the advantage.

[IceSpear]

West Virginia.

Nevada, and not because Heller's going to win, lol.

These.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ND, Byron Dorgan(liberal) won there, Heidi can too and Billie Sutton making it close in SD is proving otherwise to a GOP pickup.😁

[Politician]

North Dakota and Tennessee.

[Pericles]

Bredesen's lead has been remarkably persistent so Tennessee may be one where we have it wrong, but at the same time it's possible Blackburn pulls away at the very end or even wins very narrowly.

Montana seems ignored as a pickup opportunity for Republicans compared to other states, so maybe Atlas is overestimating Tester. Overall though I think we have a good diversity of takes on races so even if there are plenty of crappy "Scott will win" takes these are balanced out by the "Nelson has this" takes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TN,TX and IN and WV are states to watch out for as 3/4 are blue dogs and can flip both ways

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Bold prediction- Handel loses GA-6

[CatoMinor]

WV depending on how Manchin handle's the Kavanaugh vote.

[UncleSam]

Arizona.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Florida because Nelson will win by double digits.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Bold prediction- Handel loses GA-6

It is possible. I think most people overestimate the degree to which a narrow special election win suddenly makes whoever wins it invulnerable. Similar story with OH-12, AZ-08, etc.

[wesmoorenerd]

FL-SEN: Clearly no longer a tossup. It's all downhill for Scott from here. I've been saying it for months. The fundamentals of this race outweigh Scott's popularity and campaign prowess.

IL-13: No worse than a tossup for the Dems. Just a weirdly underrated opportunity.

NE-02: Lol at anyone who thinks Eastman is a good candidate. Yeah, I get it, Ashford wasn't the best and Eastman winning the primary was impressive in and of itself. However, the only two polls of the race we have so far show her behind around double digits. She's far from the favorite to say the least.

[TarHeelDem]

Texas. This forum has consistently underrated Beto.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Texas. This forum has consistently underrated Beto.

Look, it's a Liberal donating money to Beto O'Rourque... so that he can spend it on... yard signs...:

[GreatTailedGrackle]

I am going to say Texas and Florida are the most likely candidates for a surprise.  While many sources are rating both races as tossups or close to it, the conventional wisdom is that Cruz is still a favorite in Texas and Nelson in Florida.  

Various sources keep improving O'Rourke's odds, but with always lag. I don't usually believe in momentum, but things seem to keep breaking in O'Rourke's favor, and the exceptions (the revalation about his drunk driving accident and his call for banning AR-15s) do not seem to have hurt him that much. Plus, as I've said, the Kavanaugh hearings persuaded me to vote for O'Rourke.  Now, I'm a weird voter in a lot of respects, especially for Texas, but polling seems to show that more people side with the Democrats on Kavanaugh than side with the Republicans (though I don't think I have seen any polls taken after the hearing), and I am hoping that in an already close race, this makes enough of a difference to put O'Rourke over the top.

Meanwhile, Nelson has been doing surprisingly poorly in Florida.  Plus, from what I've heard, a lot of Puerto Ricans who moved to Florida after Maria are relatively conservative older voters who are grateful to Scott for how he handled things.  Since they wouldn't have voted in Florida before, I think that likely voter models are likely to underestimate the turnout from post-Maria Puerto Ricans, and if they do in fact favor Scott, that could put him over the edge.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

For the record, if the 2010 PA-12 Special to 2010 PA-12 General Election anti-incumbent swing was applied to all the Special Elections this cycle, it would flip the result in MT-01, GA-06, SC-05, AZ-08, and OH-12. I would not be surprised if some of them flipped in November.

[daveosupremo]

West Virginia.

How so?  Manchin is an appropriate fit for the state, while Morrisey seems to be a dud candidate.

Pure Trumpism gives Morrisey the advantage.

[😥]

Nevada

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Nevada because Heller will lose by Kirk 2016 style margins instead of the close race most people seem to expect.