Which Democratic senatorial candidate is running the worst campaign? (user search)
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  Which Democratic senatorial candidate is running the worst campaign? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: ?
#1
Kyrsten Sinema
 
#2
Dianne Feinsten
 
#3
Kevin de Leon
 
#4
Chris Murphy
 
#5
Tom Carper
 
#6
Bill Nelson
 
#7
Mazie Hirono
 
#8
Joe Donnelly
 
#9
Zak Ringelstein
 
#10
Ben Cardin
 
#11
Elizabeth Warren
 
#12
Debbie Stabenow
 
#13
Amy Klobuchar
 
#14
Tina Smith
 
#15
David Baria
 
#16
Mike Espy
 
#17
Claire McCaskill
 
#18
Jon Tester
 
#19
Jane Raybould
 
#20
Jacky Rosen
 
#21
Bob Menendez
 
#22
Martin Heinrich
 
#23
Kristen Gillibrand
 
#24
Heidi Heitkamp
 
#25
Sherrod Brown
 
#26
Bob Casey
 
#27
Sheldon Whitehouse
 
#28
Phil Bredesen
 
#29
Beto O'Rourke
 
#30
Jenny Wilson
 
#31
Tim Kaine
 
#32
Maria Cantwell
 
#33
Joe Manchin
 
#34
Tammy Baldwin
 
#35
Gary Trauner
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 55

Author Topic: Which Democratic senatorial candidate is running the worst campaign?  (Read 2026 times)
Pericles
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« on: September 29, 2018, 06:12:21 PM »

Not sure how reliable it is but 538's fundamentals part of their Nevada forecast has it as a tossup race, Rosen +0.5(link). This isn't a perfect indicator, but if Rosen were actually a terrible candidate and was supposed to win easily then it would probably have a much larger Rosen lead in the fundamentals(for instance Bill Nelson leads by 6.9% in the fundamentals and 1.4% in adjusted polls, a 5.5% gap). By comparison the polls-fundamentals gap for Nevada is pretty insignificant, only 0.3% as Rosen leads by 0.8% in adjusted polls(given Nevada polls are crap she may actually be outperforming the fundamentals by more). Not a perfect indicator but I found it quite interesting, and I'll have a look at the gaps for other races soon.
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