Which Democratic senatorial candidate is running the worst campaign?
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  Which Democratic senatorial candidate is running the worst campaign?
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
Kyrsten Sinema
 
#2
Dianne Feinsten
 
#3
Kevin de Leon
 
#4
Chris Murphy
 
#5
Tom Carper
 
#6
Bill Nelson
 
#7
Mazie Hirono
 
#8
Joe Donnelly
 
#9
Zak Ringelstein
 
#10
Ben Cardin
 
#11
Elizabeth Warren
 
#12
Debbie Stabenow
 
#13
Amy Klobuchar
 
#14
Tina Smith
 
#15
David Baria
 
#16
Mike Espy
 
#17
Claire McCaskill
 
#18
Jon Tester
 
#19
Jane Raybould
 
#20
Jacky Rosen
 
#21
Bob Menendez
 
#22
Martin Heinrich
 
#23
Kristen Gillibrand
 
#24
Heidi Heitkamp
 
#25
Sherrod Brown
 
#26
Bob Casey
 
#27
Sheldon Whitehouse
 
#28
Phil Bredesen
 
#29
Beto O'Rourke
 
#30
Jenny Wilson
 
#31
Tim Kaine
 
#32
Maria Cantwell
 
#33
Joe Manchin
 
#34
Tammy Baldwin
 
#35
Gary Trauner
 
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Total Voters: 55

Author Topic: Which Democratic senatorial candidate is running the worst campaign?  (Read 2001 times)
ON Progressive
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« on: September 29, 2018, 03:48:44 PM »

Shamelessly lifted from the gubernatorial board.

I didn't Angus King and Bernie Sanders since they aren't Democratic nominees. Not a big deal for ME since there's an actual official Democratic nominee anyhow.
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Peanut
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2018, 04:06:46 PM »

Bill Nelson is picking up the pace, so not him right now.

One that has disappointed me a little (both in effect and ideas) is Sinema.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2018, 04:10:45 PM »

Menendez. The idea that he might only win by single digits in New Jersey in a Democratic wave year is downright embarrassing. Would've voted Nelson a month ago, but it seems like he's at least stopped sleepwalking.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2018, 04:17:47 PM »

One that has disappointed me a little (both in effect and ideas) is Sinema.

But she's leading in the polls! Never mind that the numbers exactly matched the generic D vs. generic R numbers. Clearly the political environment doesn't matter at all. #CandidateQualityMatters

Menendez. The idea that he might only win by single digits in New Jersey in a Democratic wave year is downright embarrassing. Would've voted Nelson a month ago, but it seems like he's at least stopped sleepwalking.

Is that really because of his campaign though? It's because of his own personal ethics issues that were an issue long before he even had an active campaign. He'd definitely be a contender, if not the obvious victor, for worst Democratic candidate though. A lot of the time a bad campaign and a bad candidate are the same thing, but not always.
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Blair
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2018, 04:20:26 PM »

Rosen- I’m becoming more and more convinced that Heller will scrap through.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2018, 04:23:03 PM »

Espy or Raybould, probably

Rosen is the Democrats' Rosendale.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2018, 04:24:04 PM »

Wacky Jacky.  She should be leading by at least 7% on average right now.  The fact that Heller even has the mirage of a chance is very telling of her campaign.
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Roblox
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2018, 04:25:40 PM »

Espy or Raybould, probably

Rosen is the Democrats' Rosendale.

The difference is that rosen is actually favored to win.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2018, 04:29:46 PM »

Espy or Raybould, probably

Rosen is the Democrats' Rosendale.

The difference is that rosen is actually favored to win.
She shouldn't be merely "favored" to win in this national environment, especially in a state that's rapidly trending D.  She should be a lock.

At this point, I'm convinced that Shelly Berkley would have run a better and more competent campaign than Wacky Jacky.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2018, 05:14:34 PM »

Sinema lol. Gallego would be ahead by more at this point. Wish we ran him instead, but at least he gets a shot in 2020
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2018, 05:25:22 PM »

I can already tell this thread is gonna be fun to read in a month when Sen-elect Rosen is giving her victory speech.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2018, 05:30:57 PM »

I really cant see Menendez winning by less than double digits. He may be sleep walking during the campaign but its still NJ during a republican midterm. The fact that we've literally had almost no polling from NJ is reinforcing the false narrative that Mendendez is weaker than he actually is.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2018, 05:31:52 PM »

Maria Cantwell. Why haven't I heard more from her?!
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Pericles
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2018, 06:12:21 PM »

Not sure how reliable it is but 538's fundamentals part of their Nevada forecast has it as a tossup race, Rosen +0.5(link). This isn't a perfect indicator, but if Rosen were actually a terrible candidate and was supposed to win easily then it would probably have a much larger Rosen lead in the fundamentals(for instance Bill Nelson leads by 6.9% in the fundamentals and 1.4% in adjusted polls, a 5.5% gap). By comparison the polls-fundamentals gap for Nevada is pretty insignificant, only 0.3% as Rosen leads by 0.8% in adjusted polls(given Nevada polls are crap she may actually be outperforming the fundamentals by more). Not a perfect indicator but I found it quite interesting, and I'll have a look at the gaps for other races soon.
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2018, 06:15:46 PM »

I can already tell this thread is gonna be fun to read in a month when Sen-elect Rosen is giving her victory speech.

What!? Rosen won by how much??? But the polls said NV was a Toss-Up! When have the polls ever been wrong about Nevada? Well, that doesn't change the fact that NV is a pure Toss-Up in 2020, and will be more Republican than MN, IA, WI, MI, PA, OH, NH, NC, FL, and maybe even GA.
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« Reply #15 on: September 30, 2018, 03:25:36 AM »

1.Bob Menendez
2.Jacky Rosen
3.Kyrsten Sinema
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Very Legal & Very Cool
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« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2018, 05:24:04 AM »

Menendez. The idea that he might only win by single digits in New Jersey in a Democratic wave year is downright embarrassing. Would've voted Nelson a month ago, but it seems like he's at least stopped sleepwalking.

Menendez isn't struggling because his campaign is weak. He simply sucks as a politician and as a human being. If we are being honest he is overperforming.

I'd say Wacky Jacky because I think she's gonna lose but Kevin De Leon is an option and he's actually awful so him.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2018, 07:12:53 AM »

Sinema. Went from my favourite 2018 candidates to "hopefully she pulls it off but eh".
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JG
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« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2018, 07:31:53 AM »

Menendez because the only campaign strategy I might have approved of would have been retiring and letting someone else run.
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« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2018, 10:40:47 AM »

Sinema. Went from my favourite 2018 candidates to "hopefully she pulls it off but eh".

I thought Sinema would be one of your favorite Democrats since you are also a moderate Democrat
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« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2018, 10:44:54 AM »

Fair point, in that case, other than obviously overrated unelectable destined to lose in a landslide even if it's a Democratic wave year joker shrill liar Rosen, I'd say that Sinema is very lucky that it's a good Democratic year and that she's running against another fake moderate who's en empty suit. The fact that she's winning is a testament that the national environment is a much stronger factor in Senate and House races than candidate quality.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2018, 10:47:55 AM »

Sinema. Went from my favourite 2018 candidates to "hopefully she pulls it off but eh".

I thought Sinema would be one of your favorite Democrats since you are also a moderate Democrat

She just ran a pretty meh campaign, and her attack on Schumer (who also happens to be my favourite Democratic Senator) was just puzzling and unnecessary. Of course, I still root for her, but considering the expectations, she disappointed me.
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #22 on: September 30, 2018, 10:49:43 AM »

It's Menendez.

Do people actually think Heller is going to win lol
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xingkerui
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« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2018, 10:59:47 AM »

Do people actually think Heller is going to win lol

I'd honestly like to hear from people making this super #bold prediction. What are they basing this off of? The one Ipsos poll showing him ahead (even when the only other recent polls show Rosen slightly ahead)? If people think Heller will win simply because that's what their "gut" tells them, fine, but at least admit it. The evidence on the whole definitely does not point to Heller winning, not at all.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #24 on: September 30, 2018, 11:03:40 AM »

Rosen.

Luckily, she seems to be in a similar position as Thom Tillis was in 2014.
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