ND-SEN: Cramer leads by 4, 48-44 (FOX)
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  ND-SEN: Cramer leads by 4, 48-44 (FOX)
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Author Topic: ND-SEN: Cramer leads by 4, 48-44 (FOX)  (Read 3704 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #25 on: September 13, 2018, 11:40:40 AM »

Funny how ND is now a R-pickup on the Atlas polling map (because there have been like 3 polls in the past half year).

And Republicans are now ahead with +1 pickup nationally ... Tongue
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Former Kentuckian
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« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2018, 12:31:24 PM »

I can't help but laugh whenever the inevitable triage comments appear in Heitkamp posts. She's behind by 4 in a poll with a 3.5 margin of error in a state Trump won by a million points in early September. She's hanging in there and making this competitive. If anything, national Dems and outside groups should look at this poll and have the opposite reaction to triaging the race.
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Badger
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« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2018, 01:15:26 PM »

Folks, while these numbers are certainly worthy of consideration, can we please all remember that this is literally the first and only poll in this state in almost two and a half months? Perhaps we should get some more data points before reacting to strongly one way or the other?
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Badger
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« Reply #28 on: September 13, 2018, 06:17:39 PM »

I thought just hit me. If the AARP had a pole recently showing voters 50 and up preferred Cramer by only three points, does it make any sense that he would be up 4 Points among all voters? Not to me.

The point is, one of those polls almost surely has to be off, so why would it be the AARP pole as opposed to this one?
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #29 on: September 13, 2018, 06:20:51 PM »

I thought just hit me. If the AARP had a pole recently showing voters 50 and up preferred Cramer by only three points, does it make any sense that he would be up 4 Points among all voters? Not to me.

The point is, one of those polls almost surely has to be off, so why would it be the AARP pole as opposed to this one?
I mean, it's not impossible. North Dakota is somewhat ancestrally Democratic, and given how a ton of younger voters in the state are in the fracking industry, it's plausible that there isn't a big age gap.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #30 on: September 14, 2018, 08:44:12 AM »

Heitkamp is pro-fracking as well...I guess Cramer is more so.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #31 on: September 14, 2018, 08:45:32 AM »

I thought just hit me. If the AARP had a pole recently showing voters 50 and up preferred Cramer by only three points, does it make any sense that he would be up 4 Points among all voters? Not to me.

The point is, one of those polls almost surely has to be off, so why would it be the AARP pole as opposed to this one?

It is not implausible for Young NDers to be more Republican than older ones.

That said I think this race is probably a bit closer to Dead even
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #32 on: September 14, 2018, 10:57:12 AM »

I thought just hit me. If the AARP had a pole recently showing voters 50 and up preferred Cramer by only three points, does it make any sense that he would be up 4 Points among all voters? Not to me.

The point is, one of those polls almost surely has to be off, so why would it be the AARP pole as opposed to this one?

It is not implausible for Young NDers to be more Republican than older ones.

That said I think this race is probably a bit closer to Dead even
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #33 on: September 14, 2018, 11:06:36 AM »

ND polls are unreliable at this point, I think and Braun is more likely to win than Cramer.
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Badger
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« Reply #34 on: September 15, 2018, 06:54:40 PM »

I thought just hit me. If the AARP had a pole recently showing voters 50 and up preferred Cramer by only three points, does it make any sense that he would be up 4 Points among all voters? Not to me.

The point is, one of those polls almost surely has to be off, so why would it be the AARP pole as opposed to this one?

It is not implausible for Young NDers to be more Republican than older ones.

That said I think this race is probably a bit closer to Dead even

But how is that particularly implausible, though? The fracking argument doesn't make it that much sense because the vast majority of such workers are relatively transient and not likely to be registered voters.

 I'm not saying it's impossible, but one must acknowledge that it would be, compared to national polling results, way way out of the national mainstream for younger voters to lean more Republican than the state as a whole, or even to be relatively split between the parties.

I appreciate the fracking suggestion, but it certainly eager for any others from people who are familiar with North Dakota demographics and politics.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #35 on: September 30, 2018, 08:47:21 PM »

Why so few polls in ND?
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #36 on: September 30, 2018, 10:06:02 PM »


Yeah, strange, isn't it?  We get a ton of Michigan and Pennsylvania polls but no North Dakota.
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Xeuma
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« Reply #37 on: September 30, 2018, 10:13:15 PM »


Yeah, strange, isn't it?  We get a ton of Michigan and Pennsylvania polls but no North Dakota.

I'm pretty sure ND has some sort of law which makes phone-based polling difficult but I forget the exact details.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #38 on: September 30, 2018, 11:00:02 PM »

We've had so few polls practically everywhere. The only swing state that gets regularly polled these days is Florida.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #39 on: September 30, 2018, 11:04:42 PM »

I thought just hit me. If the AARP had a pole recently showing voters 50 and up preferred Cramer by only three points, does it make any sense that he would be up 4 Points among all voters? Not to me.

The point is, one of those polls almost surely has to be off, so why would it be the AARP pole as opposed to this one?
I mean, it's not impossible. North Dakota is somewhat ancestrally Democratic, and given how a ton of younger voters in the state are in the fracking industry, it's plausible that there isn't a big age gap.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #40 on: September 30, 2018, 11:49:52 PM »

The thing to keep in mind about North Dakota polls is North Dakota is pretty much impossible to properly poll. That is because it DOES NOT HAVE VOTER REGISTRATION.

That difficulty of polling the electorate with any accuracy is probably one of the reasons why Heitkamp overperformed the polls in 2012.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #41 on: September 30, 2018, 11:55:36 PM »

The thing to keep in mind about North Dakota polls is North Dakota is pretty much impossible to properly poll. That is because it DOES NOT HAVE VOTER REGISTRATION.

That difficulty of polling the electorate with any accuracy is probably one of the reasons why Heitkamp overperformed the polls in 2012.
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Canis
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« Reply #42 on: October 01, 2018, 02:08:37 AM »

Funny how ND is now a R-pickup on the Atlas polling map (because there have been like 3 polls in the past half year).

And Republicans are now ahead with +1 pickup nationally ... Tongue

Now it has Rs holding Nevada Dems gain TN and AZ and Rs gain ND and MO so no change in the senate overall if the polls so far are accurate
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Badger
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« Reply #43 on: October 01, 2018, 09:02:56 AM »

The thing to keep in mind about North Dakota polls is North Dakota is pretty much impossible to properly poll. That is because it DOES NOT HAVE VOTER REGISTRATION.

That difficulty of polling the electorate with any accuracy is probably one of the reasons why Heitkamp overperformed the polls in 2012.

Polling people by self identification of party is much more accurate than by actual registration anyway.

And I thought Indiana was the state with screwy poll call prohibitions.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #44 on: October 01, 2018, 09:28:45 AM »

The thing to keep in mind about North Dakota polls is North Dakota is pretty much impossible to properly poll. That is because it DOES NOT HAVE VOTER REGISTRATION.

That difficulty of polling the electorate with any accuracy is probably one of the reasons why Heitkamp overperformed the polls in 2012.

Polling people by self identification of party is much more accurate than by actual registration anyway.

And I thought Indiana was the state with screwy poll call prohibitions.

It is not just that there is no party registration. That is the case for a lot of states.

There is literally no voter registration system at all.
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