MO MOScout/Remington: Hawley +2
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  MO MOScout/Remington: Hawley +2
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Author Topic: MO MOScout/Remington: Hawley +2  (Read 3564 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: September 29, 2018, 11:10:53 AM »

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5baf9aecec212d33699b7e51/1538235118297/MOScout+Weekly+Poll-+Statewide+9.29.pdf

Hawley 48
McCaskill 46
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Pollster
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2018, 11:17:23 AM »

Senate numbers look believable, though hard to believe McCaskill is only winning women by one point.

Auditor numbers are a headscratcher. Isn't McDowell running an inept campaign?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2018, 11:20:09 AM »

in b4 "If a GOP pollster only shows Hawley ahead by 2, the race is obviously Lean D" and this thread reaches 4 pages
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2018, 11:21:44 AM »

Definitely a Toss-Up, and we could be headed for a photo finish here.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2018, 11:22:32 AM »

Toss up as always.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2018, 11:51:42 AM »

This is identical to the last Remington poll. So we've had Marist and Fox both release polls during that period of time and all three say this is a toss up, although Remington seems to be the most bullish on Hawley.
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2018, 12:01:34 PM »

Hopefully McCaskill will end up pulling this out, but I am not sure she will.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2018, 12:03:48 PM »

This is identical to the last Remington poll. So we've had Marist and Fox both release polls during that period of time and all three say this is a toss up, although Remington seems to be the most bullish on Hawley.

They were also much more bullish on Blunt in 2016, with the highest margins of all the polls (which ended up overestimating Blunt relatively significantly)
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2018, 12:05:01 PM »

Lollington.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2018, 12:07:00 PM »

in b4 "If a GOP pollster only shows Hawley ahead by 2, the race is obviously Lean D" and this thread reaches 4 pages

It means it's at most a tossup.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2018, 12:13:06 PM »

Why does the MO Scout always switch between Remington and TJP Strategies?
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Skye
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2018, 12:15:11 PM »

Tossup as usual.
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Roblox
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2018, 12:20:33 PM »

 Yeah, I think this will be the closest senate race. Wouldn't be surprised if the result was within 1% either way, or even if it isn't called on election night.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2018, 12:26:34 PM »

This isn't Lean D it's tossup
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andjey
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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2018, 12:49:20 PM »

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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2018, 12:56:10 PM »

Why does the MO Scout always switch between Remington and TJP Strategies?

Maybe they conduct 2 polls, and release whichever one is more favorable for Republicans? Cheesy
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Zaybay
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« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2018, 01:18:30 PM »

Tossup if I ever saw one. Hawley has gained some momentum from the summer, but it seems to have entered a dead heat. It all matters on who can get the trend....
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2018, 01:25:05 PM »

She would be leading by 2 if she was voting to cofirm Kavanaugh.
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user12345
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2018, 02:06:33 PM »

Hawley is not beating McCaskill 59-35 in the Columbia area.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2018, 02:14:57 PM »

Hawley is not beating McCaskill 59-35 in the Columbia area.

I agree that this poll is trash, but citing crosstabs as evidence for a poll's overall quality is usually not a good idea.
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Rocky Rockefeller
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« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2018, 02:27:07 PM »

She would be leading by 2 if she was voting to cofirm Kavanaugh.

She'd lose by 10 if she did that
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2018, 02:39:49 PM »

She would be leading by 2 if she was voting to cofirm Kavanaugh.

She'd lose by 10 if she did that

This. It would nuke her base turnout, and there's an actual Democratic base in Missouri.
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jamestroll
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« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2018, 02:51:40 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2018, 03:29:31 PM by Jimmie »

Toss up but I would bet on Hawley here.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: September 29, 2018, 03:10:16 PM »

Auditor numbers are a headscratcher. Isn't McDowell running an inept campaign?

She has the (R).
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jamestroll
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« Reply #24 on: September 29, 2018, 03:12:39 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2018, 03:31:25 PM by Jimmie »

Auditor numbers are a headscratcher. Isn't McDowell running an inept campaign?

She has the (R).

Both races are toss ups but neither dem has lead in months. I hate to say it but it may be time to move on and triage both races if another poll shows similar results.

Hawley/McCaskill dominating the air waves will limit attention the Galloway/McDowell.. McDowell was nominated because of Right to Work was dominating the campaign and now she may win because the air waves are only McCaskill vs Hawley.

Another Democrat probably could have held the seat. But with someone as deep in unfavorables as McCaskill in such a Trumpy state in a toss up race with an "ideal candidate" shows that the climate is bad for the GOP.


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