MT-AARP: Tester+7......but AARP is bad at disclosing its not only people over 50 (user search)
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  MT-AARP: Tester+7......but AARP is bad at disclosing its not only people over 50 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MT-AARP: Tester+7......but AARP is bad at disclosing its not only people over 50  (Read 2934 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: September 28, 2018, 04:51:47 PM »

I assume that they mean gun owners over 50 in Garfield County, right?

Gun-owning male Republicans over 50 in Garfield and Petroleum County, yeah. Hard to believe that he’s only ahead by 7, though.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2018, 05:34:25 PM »

It’s obvious that Tester is leading in this race, but I wouldn’t draw too many conclusions from polls of only one demographic, and we certainly can’t infer from this poll that Tester is ahead by double digits. Older voters in MT (and the Dakotas, for that matter) are definitely not as Republican-leaning as their counterparts in other Republican states which don’t have the same long Democratic tradition that Montana has. Unfortunately, there’s basically no exit poll data available for MT, but I’m pretty sure that they were Quist's second-best demographic group, actually.

It’s still not a good poll for Republicans by any means since these people are pretty reliable voters.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2018, 10:02:24 AM »

Whoops, seems like this is actually the real top. Well, that means two things.

1. AARP sucks at disclosing what the poll is actually about

2. The MT house seat is a tossup, and the senate seat is lean D

I shall edit the top for that, but I will keep the name

Well, it sure means that if you blindly trust one poll.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2018, 01:44:42 PM »

I mean, its this, or Gravis, and I would rather put my stock here, you know.

Worth noting that the CEO of the group that conducted this poll (Joel Benenson) was the chief strategist of Clinton's presidential campaign and also worked for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Just a minor detail.
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