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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AL Research Consultants: Ivey +20
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Author Topic: AL Research Consultants: Ivey +20  (Read 1106 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: September 28, 2018, 03:46:22 am »
« edited: September 28, 2018, 03:52:42 am by TheRocketRaccoon »

http://www.aldailynews.com/new-poll-shows-republicans-winning-six-weeks-out/

Ivey 56, Maddox 36

SC Chief Justice: Parker (R) 53, Vance (D) 39
AG: Marshall (R) 56, Siegelman (D) 39
LTGOV: Ainsworth (R) 51, Boyd (D) 36
SOS: Merrill (R-inc) 51, Milam (D) 39
Auditor: Zeigler (R-inc) 54, Miranda (D) 37
SC Justice 1: Mitchell (R) 55, Smalley (D) 37
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westroopnerd
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2018, 04:16:36 am »

About what I'd expect. Safe R, of course.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2018, 04:50:48 am »


SC Chief Justice: Parker (R) 53, Vance (D) 39

Ugh, I thought that at least Alabamians would reject Roy Moore's Mini-Me.
But I guess that R next to his name is all that matters.
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Ishan
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2018, 07:12:34 am »

#Iveyunder60

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President Biden
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2018, 08:05:22 am »
« Edited: September 28, 2018, 08:19:02 am by Dems for DeSantis »

more likely to flip than oklahoma imo imo

I like Maddox, but obviously Ivey is safe.

Edit: SoS actually seems a lot closer than I would expect.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2018, 08:06:20 am »

Looks about right
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2018, 08:17:39 am »

Sue Bell Cobb could've won.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2018, 08:56:03 am »


No. The only way a Republican loses in AL is being Roy Moore. Even that will only make it a tossup.
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#Joemala2020
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2018, 09:13:38 am »

She’s trash. No she wouldn’t have.
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Beto/Biden/Allred voter 4 Cornyn's NUT maps
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2018, 09:42:43 am »

Pretty hilarious given that this state elected a relatively liberal Democratic Senator last year. Anyway, Likely R.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2018, 01:58:59 pm »


SC Chief Justice: Parker (R) 53, Vance (D) 39

Ugh, I thought that at least Alabamians would reject Roy Moore's Mini-Me.
But I guess that R next to his name is all that matters.

I mean, they barely rejected the real Roy Moore who was a literal pedophile. So is it really surprising they wouldn't reject his mini me who presumably is not a literal pedophile?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2018, 02:01:45 pm »

Pretty hilarious given that this state elected a relatively liberal Democratic Senator last year. Anyway, Likely R.

Against a pedophile.

Jones is finished against a non pedophile.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2018, 02:02:37 pm »

Pretty hilarious given that this state elected a relatively liberal Democratic Senator last year. Anyway, Likely R.


If Luther Strange was the GOP nominee in AL last year , Jones would have lost by double digits
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2018, 02:06:34 pm »

Pretty hilarious given that this state elected a relatively liberal Democratic Senator last year. Anyway, Likely R.


If Luther Strange was the GOP nominee in AL last year , Jones would have lost by double digits

Not this nonsense again.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2018, 04:35:17 pm »

Pretty hilarious given that this state elected a relatively liberal Democratic Senator last year. Anyway, Likely R.


If Luther Strange was the GOP nominee in AL last year , Jones would have lost by double digits

Not this nonsense again.

I guess we'll have to hear this myth for many years to come, just like the one that without Perot's candidacy Poppy Bush would have won.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2018, 05:39:22 pm »
« Edited: September 29, 2018, 05:43:30 pm by Paulite Hick »

Pretty hilarious given that this state elected a relatively liberal Democratic Senator last year. Anyway, Likely R.


If Luther Strange was the GOP nominee in AL last year , Jones would have lost by double digits

Not this nonsense again.

I guess we'll have to hear this myth for many years to come, just like the one that without Perot's candidacy Poppy Bush would have won.

It's not a myth. There is absolutely nothing special about Doug Jones; he was just another sacrificial lamb plucked off the street who lucked out by having the good fortune to run against an accused pedophile. He would've been blown out, probably in the neighborhood of 60-40, by literally anyone else.
This is Alabama. An uninspiring and lackluster generic R is about to crush an A-list democratic recruit in the governor's race, do we really think that Jones won the senate race on his own merits? The idea is laughable; all it amounts to is an attempt to hoist a Democratic folk hero higher up on his pedestal.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2018, 05:41:11 pm »

Pretty hilarious given that this state elected a relatively liberal Democratic Senator last year. Anyway, Likely R.


If Luther Strange was the GOP nominee in AL last year , Jones would have lost by double digits

Not this nonsense again.

I guess we'll have to hear this myth for many years to come, just like the one that without Perot's candidacy Poppy Bush would have won.

It's not a myth. There is absolutely nothing special about Doug Jones; he was just another sacrificial lamb plucked off the street who lucked out by having the good fortune to run against an accused pedophile. He would've been blown out, probably in the neighborhood of 60-40, by literally anyone else.

This is why fielding candidate everywhere, even sacrificial lambs, is important.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2018, 05:54:08 pm »

Pretty hilarious given that this state elected a relatively liberal Democratic Senator last year. Anyway, Likely R.


If Luther Strange was the GOP nominee in AL last year , Jones would have lost by double digits

Not this nonsense again.

I guess we'll have to hear this myth for many years to come, just like the one that without Perot's candidacy Poppy Bush would have won.

It's not a myth. There is absolutely nothing special about Doug Jones; he was just another sacrificial lamb plucked off the street who lucked out by having the good fortune to run against an accused pedophile. He would've been blown out, probably in the neighborhood of 60-40, by literally anyone else.
This is Alabama. An uninspiring and lackluster generic R is about to crush an A-list democratic recruit in the governor's race, do we really think that Jones won the senate race on his own merits? The idea is laughable; all it amounts to is an attempt to hoist a Democratic folk hero higher up on his pedestal.

I mostly agree with this. But considering the Dem overperformance in special elections and the controversy surrounding Strange I think it's possible Jones could've done better than expected, as in "only" lose by 10-15 points.
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Suburbron Biden - Perdue - Lieberman Voter
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2018, 06:00:09 pm »

Do we really think black and low-propensity white rural Democrats were disproportionately convinced to storm the polls because the Republican was a pedophile? That might explain why some GOP voters stayed home, but those who came out to vote clearly backed Moore by the usual margins...and it certainly doesn't explain why Democrats managed to pull presidential turnout figures. Take it from a Democrat: we're always morally outraged. It's not a recipe for high turnout and engagement; merely the status quo.

AL was made competitive more than anything by the millions infused into it and the massive ground-game that national Democrats and volunteers were willing to provide. Yeah, the whole "pedophile" thing provided the conditions for that infusion, but it would have been competitive - and would be in just about any other situation in a special or midterm - if Democrats put this kind of effort in every time. Unfortunately, they don't (and/or can't, given limited resources in regularly-scheduled elections).
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2018, 07:21:35 pm »

Pretty hilarious given that this state elected a relatively liberal Democratic Senator last year. Anyway, Likely R.


If Luther Strange was the GOP nominee in AL last year , Jones would have lost by double digits

Not this nonsense again.

I guess we'll have to hear this myth for many years to come, just like the one that without Perot's candidacy Poppy Bush would have won.

It's not a myth. There is absolutely nothing special about Doug Jones; he was just another sacrificial lamb plucked off the street who lucked out by having the good fortune to run against an accused pedophile. He would've been blown out, probably in the neighborhood of 60-40, by literally anyone else.
This is Alabama. An uninspiring and lackluster generic R is about to crush an A-list democratic recruit in the governor's race, do we really think that Jones won the senate race on his own merits? The idea is laughable; all it amounts to is an attempt to hoist a Democratic folk hero higher up on his pedestal.

Strange lost to Moore because of the corrupt bargain he made with Bentley to appoint him in the senate. He was tied with Jones, or even trailing him slightly, in hypothetical match-ups for the same reason.
He may have won at the end because corruption is more tolerable than pedophilia. But it's not like he would have curbstomped Jones by 20-30 points like you say.    
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2018, 02:18:02 pm »

The AL race got more media attention than they have give to any race outside a Presidential Race.  There hasnt been a single race this year which has got even half the attention AL 2017 Special had and that is why Dem turnout was so high.


If Luther Strange was the GOP nominee, the race probably would have gotten no attention outside election day .
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Ishan
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« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2018, 02:28:23 pm »

The AL race got more media attention than they have give to any race outside a Presidential Race.  There hasnt been a single race this year which has got even half the attention AL 2017 Special had and that is why Dem turnout was so high.


If Luther Strange was the GOP nominee, the race probably would have gotten no attention outside election day .
I disagree because of the face in Fox News Polls Jones was leading Strange
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