2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If this is accurate, then Handel may be in more trouble than we realize (given GA-07 fundamentally is a fair bit more GOP than GA-06).

how likely is it we see enough Handel-Abrams voters for her to win?
Is Karen Handel capable of benefiting from split ticket voting?

I'd say anywhere from 5-10% of voters will fall into this category; this part of Georgia has had some huge crossover support going all the way back to 2008 (between presidential and down-ballot, anyway). I've been assuming that Handel would win, but that if Abrams has a chance of winning statewide, she'd basically need a respectable majority from GA-06.

What would it say if Handel and Abrams somehow both won by double digits?

I think that might be a bit of a stretch (though high single digits for both is feasible). I could see perhaps a 20-point difference in the margin between the two contests if it's skewed in favor of Handel: maybe 56-44 Handel and 53-45 Abrams.

Would Handel's margin have any clues about the chances Ds have to take the district in 2020?

[Gass3268]

This chart feels important:

[Gass3268]

Not sure if this was posted, but this is a good gain for Delgado since the last time Siena polled here:

Faso 44 (-1)
Delgado 43 (+3)

Source

Faso seems too be stuck around 44-45% in all of his polling.

[wbrocks67]

I truly think no pollster truly knows how this election is going to turn out. Turnout is a complete tossup. If that NBC/WSJ chart ends up coming to fruition, with Latinos and young people being extremely motivated, that could change a LOT. And likewise, if the opposite happens.

[GeorgiaModerate]

USC/LA Times, Oct. 14-20, 2284 LV (change from Sept.)

D: 55 (nc)
R: 42 (+1)

[Person Man]

USC/LA Times, Oct. 14-20, 2284 LV (change from Sept.)

D: 55 (nc)
R: 42 (+1)

Numbers that far apart are holding this late? Either I will have my fair share of drink or crow, or both in two weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

USC/LA Times, Oct. 14-20, 2284 LV (change from Sept.)

D: 55 (nc)
R: 42 (+1)

Numbers that far apart are holding this late? Either I will have my fair share of drink or crow, or both in two weeks.

FTR, here's the history of this poll.  They're going to release two more before the election.

Jan 51/40
Jun 53/41
Aug 52/42
Sep 55/41
Oct 20 55/42
Oct 27 tbd
Nov 3 tbd

[Politician]

Not sure if this was posted, but this is a good gain for Delgado since the last time Siena polled here:

Faso 44 (-1)
Delgado 43 (+3)

Source

Faso seems too be stuck around 44-45% in all of his polling.

I was told by RRH comments section this race was Safe R, though.

[Zaybay]

Not sure if this was posted, but this is a good gain for Delgado since the last time Siena polled here:

Faso 44 (-1)
Delgado 43 (+3)

Source

Faso seems too be stuck around 44-45% in all of his polling.

Hmm, where was the last time I heard that? Oh yeah, it was with many D incumbents in 2010 who lost their races even though they lead their polling.

[Gass3268]

Not sure if this was posted, but this is a good gain for Delgado since the last time Siena polled here:

Faso 44 (-1)
Delgado 43 (+3)

Source

Faso seems too be stuck around 44-45% in all of his polling.

Hmm, where was the last time I heard that? Oh yeah, it was with many D incumbents in 2010 who lost their races even though they lead their polling.

There are a couple 3rd party candidates, one getting 5%.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

USC/LA Times, Oct. 14-20, 2284 LV (change from Sept.)

D: 55 (nc)
R: 42 (+1)

Numbers that far apart are holding this late? Either I will have my fair share of drink or crow, or both in two weeks.

Don't ask questions, just...



Whatever they are spiking their LV model with, more of that!

[Gass3268]

A Florida Quinnipiac poll coming later today. They have been generally very good in that state.




Source

[Gass3268]

Also getting a Monmouth CA-48 poll tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if the lack of funds for Rohrabacher (both internal and external) has taken effect.

[IceSpear]

This poll has the Colorado generic ballot at D+9.

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2018_colorado_political_climate_report_election_topline_10-21-18.pdf

RIP Coffman, but we already knew that. Could it be enough to put Tipton in danger though?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This poll has the Colorado generic ballot at D+9.

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2018_colorado_political_climate_report_election_topline_10-21-18.pdf

RIP Coffman, but we already knew that. Could it be enough to put Tipton in danger though?

Considering Colorado was was R+1 (with the national house margin being R+1) in 2016, this translates to a D+9 generic for the nation. Seems a bit too high.

[Brittain33]

This poll has the Colorado generic ballot at D+9.

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2018_colorado_political_climate_report_election_topline_10-21-18.pdf

RIP Coffman, but we already knew that. Could it be enough to put Tipton in danger though?

Considering Colorado was was R+1 (with the national house margin being R+1) in 2016, this translates to a D+9 generic for the nation. Seems a bit too high.

High rate of education in Colorado.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This poll has the Colorado generic ballot at D+9.

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2018_colorado_political_climate_report_election_topline_10-21-18.pdf

RIP Coffman, but we already knew that. Could it be enough to put Tipton in danger though?

Considering Colorado was was R+1 (with the national house margin being R+1) in 2016, this translates to a D+9 generic for the nation. Seems a bit too high.

High rate of education in Colorado.

If that's the case, I assume Colorado trended to the left since 2016 by about 3 points...which translates to a D+6 National percentage...not enough to take the House.

[Nyvin]

This poll has the Colorado generic ballot at D+9.

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2018_colorado_political_climate_report_election_topline_10-21-18.pdf

RIP Coffman, but we already knew that. Could it be enough to put Tipton in danger though?

Considering Colorado was was R+1 (with the national house margin being R+1) in 2016, this translates to a D+9 generic for the nation. Seems a bit too high.

Why is it too high?   Also the Colorado vote won't follow the national vote exactly.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This poll has the Colorado generic ballot at D+9.

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2018_colorado_political_climate_report_election_topline_10-21-18.pdf

RIP Coffman, but we already knew that. Could it be enough to put Tipton in danger though?

Considering Colorado was was R+1 (with the national house margin being R+1) in 2016, this translates to a D+9 generic for the nation. Seems a bit too high.

Why is it too high?   Also the Colorado vote won't follow the national vote exactly.

Yeah, I was set straight by Brittain33...this isn't a good poll for National prospects, considering Colorado is well to the left of the nation now.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Considering Colorado was was R+1 (with the national house margin being R+1) in 2016, this translates to a D+9 generic for the nation. Seems a bit too high.

Not at all... The GCB average on 538 has Dems up 8.6 points right now. So that is entirely in line with the average right now.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If that's the case, I assume Colorado trended to the left since 2016 by about 3 points...which translates to a D+6 National percentage...not enough to take the House.

If that's the case, I assume you are just making stuff up about Colorado's trend with no basis, which translates into... I don't know what, but probably not whatever you think it translates into.

[Person Man]

Considering Colorado was was R+1 (with the national house margin being R+1) in 2016, this translates to a D+9 generic for the nation. Seems a bit too high.

Not at all... The GCB average on 538 has Dems up 8.6 points right now. So that is entirely in line with the average right now.

There are those that have the GCB close and there are those who have it well in the double-digits. A 9 point GCB is definitely a possibility.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Considering Colorado was was R+1 (with the national house margin being R+1) in 2016, this translates to a D+9 generic for the nation. Seems a bit too high.

Not at all... The GCB average on 538 has Dems up 8.6 points right now. So that is entirely in line with the average right now.

There are those that have the GCB close and there are those who have it well in the double-digits. A 9 point GCB is definitely a possibility.

Looking at the most recent polls at 538, D+9 looks pretty solid:

[Gustaf]

Guys, stop feeding the troll. He literally said "this implies the Democrats winning the GCB by a lot so it can't be true" and then flipped immediately to "this implies the Democrats aren't winning the GCB by enough to take the House".

Even LimoLiberal has a more convincing act.

[Nyvin]

UNH poll of NH showing Pappas ahead by +9, and Kuster ahead by +15.

UNH is...not the best exactly.   But good news.   Probably just throw it into the mix.

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2018_fall_cong102218.pdf