2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130974 times)
Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #775 on: October 05, 2018, 09:36:18 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on October 05, 2018, 08:01:34 AM
Quote from: Pope Michael Bolton on October 04, 2018, 09:44:56 AM
For some reason, Atlas has always underestimated Cisernos’ strength and waaaaaaay overestimated Kim’s.  I’ve expected a narrow Cisneros win here since before the primary, tbh.

It's not without reason. The two pieces of evidence were Republican strength in the primary (albeit because of a special election) and a recent poll showing Kim reverse burbstomping Cisneros.

I don’t think that the Republican strength here on primary day was so great as to warrant acting like this is a Lean R race and one poll...well...this is a great example of why it can be good to not read too much into one poll.  We don’t know which of these polls is the one that’s way off.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #776 on: October 05, 2018, 11:53:05 AM »
Quote from: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 05, 2018, 08:02:49 AM
Fitzpatrick seems to be in good shape. Same as Will Hurd. But yeah, most clinton-repubs are going down. I'm not convinced that Katko is particularly safe either.

Well, technically those seats are R by PVI... so I'm right  Tongue
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bilaps
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« Reply #777 on: October 05, 2018, 01:35:48 PM »
Sooo, Congressional Leadership Fund comes out today with a poll that has Hurd up wait for it... 25 points. I mean even for them it's too much I think.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #778 on: October 05, 2018, 02:33:23 PM »
Quote from: bilaps on October 05, 2018, 01:35:48 PM
Sooo, Congressional Leadership Fund comes out today with a poll that has Hurd up wait for it... 25 points. I mean even for them it's too much I think.
If big true
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Ebsy
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« Reply #779 on: October 05, 2018, 03:15:13 PM »


NM-02 toss up.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
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« Reply #780 on: October 05, 2018, 03:18:08 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on October 05, 2018, 03:15:13 PM


NM-02 toss up.
Blue Ripple turning back into a wave or an outlier? Stay tuned.
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Politician
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« Reply #781 on: October 05, 2018, 03:43:26 PM »
Quote from: bilaps on October 05, 2018, 01:35:48 PM
Sooo, Congressional Leadership Fund comes out today with a poll that has Hurd up wait for it... 25 points. I mean even for them it's too much I think.
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136or142
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« Reply #782 on: October 05, 2018, 03:44:17 PM »
Sooner Polls





On a related note, I'm starting up the Later polling company.  We will be conducting our first U.S House election poll on November 10, 2018.  (Ok, that was stupid, sorry.)
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #783 on: October 05, 2018, 03:45:48 PM »
Quote from: Politician on October 05, 2018, 03:43:26 PM
Quote from: bilaps on October 05, 2018, 01:35:48 PM
Sooo, Congressional Leadership Fund comes out today with a poll that has Hurd up wait for it... 25 points. I mean even for them it's too much I think.


I had an idea of a mock up of Mad Magazine "Mao Magazine" and the tag line was "What, me worry if 100 million Chinese die?"
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2016
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« Reply #784 on: October 05, 2018, 06:20:10 PM »
The Kavanaugh Vote will likely do 2 Things:

# 1 It will help Democrats even further in these Suburban Districts

HOWEVER

# 2 It will hurt Senate Democrats particularly Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester and Donnelly.

I wouldn't be surprised if a MT Poll comes out next week showing Rosendale either tied or ahead by a couple of Points over Tester.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #785 on: October 05, 2018, 06:23:21 PM »

Enough with your trolling. People are tired of listening to your trolling.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #786 on: October 05, 2018, 06:27:17 PM »
Russell +10 in OK-5 sounds about right
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #787 on: October 05, 2018, 06:29:52 PM »
Quote from: #KavanaughForPrison on October 05, 2018, 06:23:21 PM

Enough with your trolling. People are tired of listening to your trolling.

This is why I have him on Ignore.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #788 on: October 05, 2018, 06:31:35 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 05, 2018, 06:29:52 PM
Quote from: #KavanaughForPrison on October 05, 2018, 06:23:21 PM

Enough with your trolling. People are tired of listening to your trolling.

This is why I have him on Ignore.

That is a good idea actually. I just added him to my ignore list. Thank you for the idea.
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hofoid
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« Reply #789 on: October 05, 2018, 06:44:08 PM »
How exactly is stating an opinion trolling? He isn't saying anything all the Dem hacks here don't say with the names changed.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #790 on: October 05, 2018, 07:27:25 PM »
Quote from: hofoid on October 05, 2018, 06:44:08 PM
How exactly is stating an opinion trolling? He isn't saying anything all the Dem hacks here don't say with the names changed.

Actually, the absurd Dem hacks like Solid are far more unreasonable than his post was.
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aaroncd107
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« Reply #791 on: October 05, 2018, 07:36:09 PM »
Anyone see that wild CLF poll with Hurd up by 25?
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #792 on: October 05, 2018, 07:37:30 PM »
Quote from: aaroncd107 on October 05, 2018, 07:36:09 PM
Anyone see that wild CLF poll with Hurd up by 25?

Junk poll.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #793 on: October 05, 2018, 08:32:09 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on October 05, 2018, 06:20:10 PM
The Kavanaugh Vote will likely do 2 Things:

# 1 It will help Democrats even further in these Suburban Districts

HOWEVER

# 2 It will hurt Senate Democrats particularly Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester and Donnelly.

I wouldn't be surprised if a MT Poll comes out next week showing Rosendale either tied or ahead by a couple of Points over Tester.
Indiana has a large suburban population (the counties surrounding Indianapolis, as well as Lake, Porter, and LaPorte Counties near Chicago).
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ajc0918
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« Reply #794 on: October 05, 2018, 08:33:59 PM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 05, 2018, 07:29:04 AM
FL-26 DCCC/GBA Strategies: Mucarsel-Powell (D) 50, Curbelo (R-inc) 48

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/mucarsel-powell-narrowly-leads-curbelo-dccc-poll-floridas-26th-district

Note: This is separate from DMP's own recent internal showing her up 49-48.

Does anyone think Dems could win FL-26 and lose FL-27? Or were Dems just concern trolling by releasing the polls showing a close race in FL-27?
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #795 on: October 05, 2018, 08:36:08 PM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on October 05, 2018, 08:33:59 PM
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 05, 2018, 07:29:04 AM
FL-26 DCCC/GBA Strategies: Mucarsel-Powell (D) 50, Curbelo (R-inc) 48

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/mucarsel-powell-narrowly-leads-curbelo-dccc-poll-floridas-26th-district

Note: This is separate from DMP's own recent internal showing her up 49-48.

Does anyone think Dems could win FL-26 and lose FL-27? Or were Dems just concern trolling by releasing the polls showing a close race in FL-27?

Perhaps Democrats released their worst FL-27 internal because they wanted to lure Republicans into burning money there.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #796 on: October 06, 2018, 09:18:13 AM »


:thinking_emoji:
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KingSweden
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« Reply #797 on: October 06, 2018, 09:21:53 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 06, 2018, 09:18:13 AM


:thinking_emoji:

Hmm...
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #798 on: October 06, 2018, 10:02:07 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 06, 2018, 09:18:13 AM


:thinking_emoji:

KY-4?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #799 on: October 06, 2018, 10:11:22 AM »
The theory on DKe is that Wassu is referring to Marchant
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