2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1045357470879809541

Unsurprising

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1045435913621331968
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1045431429537062912

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1045046861839695872

Nobody show RINO Tom this image.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1045436474106281984
https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1045437232205582336
https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1045437557419401222

They've tweeted more findings, but figured this is what folks here would care the most about.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Sep. 17-23, 1308 RV (change from June)

D: 51 (+3)
R: 42 (-1)

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[Florida Man for Crime]

Gallup, Sep. 17-23, 1308 RV (change from June)

D: 51 (+3)
R: 42 (-1)

Oh no. Gallup is doing generic ballot polling again??? I thought they stopped that and were never going to do it again after they realized that they could not do a remotely accurate poll and are a horrible pollster.

This is a terrible thing for anyone who cares about the accuracy of polling averages.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Sep. 17-23, 1308 RV (change from June)

D: 51 (+3)
R: 42 (-1)

Oh no. Gallup is doing generic ballot polling again??? I thought they stopped that and were never going to do it again after they realized that they could not do a remotely accurate poll and are a horrible pollster.

This is a terrible thing for anyone who cares about the accuracy of polling averages.

Speaking of the averages, the Democrats are now at 49.6 on 538, their highest so far this cycle.  The Republicans are at 40.9.

[BudgieForce]

I guess theres room for everybody.

[Virginiá]

I really wish I had some sort of example to work off of when looking at these polls, so I could make a reasonable prediction about the House PV from it. Like, what would all these NYT/Siena polls look like under an indisputable D+10 environment? And what about D+6?

Right now there are so many races where incumbents are tied or otherwise only up/down a few points -/+ that a person could reasonably predict a very wide range of gains. It's complicated further when you have incumbents like Holding and Budd tied or potentially even slightly losing, yet have a considerably more Democratic seat (relatively speaking) like VA-02 with a tainted GOP incumbent who is also either tied or leading very slightly. Or take WA-08, an open seat that Clinton and Obama won narrowly, which is also statistically tied. And don't even get me started about Latino-heavy districts which on paper should be gimmes but very much aren't this cycle, and won't be until at least 2020, a year with higher turnout.

I'm just not sure what conclusions to draw from this. All I know is that I'm getting more skeptical that >= D+10 is possible unless many of these districts see a steady and unmistakable trend away from the Republicans in the final 2-3 weeks.

[BudgieForce]

I dont know @Virginia. Best to just take any congressional district poll with a grain of salt(even if its from an A pollster like Sienna) and hope for the best. There are so many competitive districts and these polls have a pretty large MoE. Many of these polls may end up being wildly off(on both sides).

[IceSpear]

CA-22: SurveyUSA has Devin Nunes up 14 (55-41)

https://abc30.com/nunes-leads-janz-in-exclusive-action-news-poll/4355520/?sf198727219=1

So much for that pipe dream. #CandidateQualityMatters

[BudgieForce]

I was always under the impression Nunes was safe. I remember early in the circle someone had interviewed some of his constituents and they really liked how he was defending Trump.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I was always under the impression Nunes was safe. I remember early in the circle someone had interviewed some of his constituents and they really liked how he was defending Trump.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Generic Ballot Pennsylvania-

Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 36%

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/84925965295991296-f-m-poll-release-september-2018.pdf

Could the Erie based NW PA seat fall to the Dems?

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Gallup RV GCB: D+9 (51-42)

https://news.gallup.com/poll/243173/parties-voters-keyed-midterm-elections.aspx

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup RV GCB: D+9 (51-42)

https://news.gallup.com/poll/243173/parties-voters-keyed-midterm-elections.aspx

Look upward about 10 posts.

[KingSweden]

Generic Ballot Pennsylvania-

Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 36%

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/84925965295991296-f-m-poll-release-september-2018.pdf

Could the Erie based NW PA seat fall to the Dems?

Wouldn’t surprise me

[ON Progressive]

MI-06 (Public Opinion Strategies/Bishop internal):

Mike Bishop (R-inc) 45
Elissa Slotkin (D) 43

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hCVvE7VowJEon60CBTgy0RBlKfmn2tfd/view

Does he seriously think a poll showing him only up 2 and at 45% in a Romney-Trump district is a great showing? LMAO.

[IceSpear]

MI-06 (Public Opinion Strategies/Bishop internal):

Mike Bishop (R-inc) 45
Elissa Slotkin (D) 43

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hCVvE7VowJEon60CBTgy0RBlKfmn2tfd/view

Does he seriously think a poll showing him only up 2 and at 45% in a Romney-Trump district is a great showing? LMAO.

Good ol POS.

I guess it's to counter the "Bishop is DOA because he got triaged" takes. Which it does an astoundingly poor job at doing. It'll be interesting to see what the Siena poll shows.

Of course, Atlas will have no problem dismissing this poll because it's not Donna Shalala's opponent releasing it.

[Xing]

MI-06 (Public Opinion Strategies/Bishop internal):

Mike Bishop (R-inc) 45
Elissa Slotkin (D) 43

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hCVvE7VowJEon60CBTgy0RBlKfmn2tfd/view

Does he seriously think a poll showing him only up 2 and at 45% in a Romney-Trump district is a great showing? LMAO.

Good ol POS.

I guess it's to counter the "Bishop is DOA because he got triaged" takes. Which it does an astoundingly poor job at doing. It'll be interesting to see what the Siena poll shows.

Of course, Atlas will have no problem dismissing this poll because it's not Donna Shalala's opponent releasing it.

Or Dino Rossi. If his internal showed him up 2, Atlas would be calling it a Tilt R race, and saying "come on, hasn't poor Dino suffered enough? "

[IceSpear]

NH-01: Pappas +22 (55-33)
NH-02: Kuster +27 (54-27)

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/cd118/
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/cd218/

It's ARG, but these look Titanium D as expected. MT Treasurer will love these, lol. Look at that 58 point gender gap in NH-02!

[wesmoorenerd]

NH-01: Pappas +22 (55-33)
NH-02: Kuster +27 (54-27)

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/cd118/
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/cd218/

It's ARG, but these look Titanium D as expected. MT Treasurer will love these, lol. Look at that 58 point gender gap in NH-02!

Not sure if I buy those, those are some over the top numbers for nearly even districts.

[IceSpear]

Not sure if I buy those, those are some over the top numbers for nearly even districts.

Yeah, the margins definitely won't end up being so massive since the undecideds are mostly Republicans, but it's not like these seats are even being seriously contested. And New Hampshire tends to swing big in waves.

[Landslide Lyndon]

ARG is only a smidge more legit than McLaughlin.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG is only a smidge more legit than McLaughlin.

No, they're a lot more legitimate than McLaughlin.  Which tells you more about McLaughlin than ARG.