2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

TX-31 (Hegar Internal)

Carter (R): 46%
Hegar (D): 42%

Last poll done by Hegar in July had her trailing 39-48%

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1044303317336186881

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Monmouth has a VA-07 poll coming out tomorrow btw.

[ON Progressive]

Monmouth has a VA-07 poll coming out tomorrow btw.

I’m going to guess Brat +5

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Monmouth has a VA-07 poll coming out tomorrow btw.

I’m going to guess Brat +5

I'm not sure. Stewart could really drag him down.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Monmouth has a VA-07 poll coming out tomorrow btw.

I’m going to guess Brat +5

[ON Progressive]

Monmouth has a VA-07 poll coming out tomorrow btw.

I’m going to guess Brat +5

I'm not sure. Stewart could really drag him down.

It's a very conservative district still though. It was 11 points to the right of the state in 2016, and 12 points to the right of the state in VA-Gov.

[Gass3268]

PA-11 (PPP) - King Internal:

44% Smucker
35% King

Source

If anything this tells me that Scott Perry is probably in trouble in PA-10.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044342279333441538

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044342279333441538

And one could argue that could be because pollsters have trouble reaching Hispanics.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044342279333441538

So why are they not moving any ratings toward Democrats based off these "private polls" like they do in favor of Republicans? They only ever move ratings toward the Democrats based off public polls.

[Roblox]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044342279333441538

So why are they not moving any ratings toward Democrats based off these "private polls" like they do in favor of Republicans? They only ever move ratings toward the Democrats based off public polls.

You see, that's the evil liberal media and establishment playing 3d chess, covering up their plotting to rig every election so that demo win a 300 seat majority!

But yeah, that is a bit weird. Hell, sabato had MI-gov as tossup until last week, lol.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044342279333441538

So why are they not moving any ratings toward Democrats based off these "private polls" like they do in favor of Republicans? They only ever move ratings toward the Democrats based off public polls.

Moving ratings in favor of the Democrats based on private polls would be elitist, you see, and we don't want to offend the #populists

[mencken]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044342279333441538

So why are they not moving any ratings toward Democrats based off these "private polls" like they do in favor of Republicans? They only ever move ratings toward the Democrats based off public polls.

They are actually held publically accountable for their ratings, whereas three months from now everyone will forget about their unsubstantiated claims on Twitter (meant to push a narrative).

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044342279333441538

So why are they not moving any ratings toward Democrats based off these "private polls" like they do in favor of Republicans? They only ever move ratings toward the Democrats based off public polls.

They are actually held publically accountable for their ratings, whereas three months from now everyone will forget about their unsubstantiated claims on Twitter (meant to push a narrative).

Yeah, I'm very skeptical of these types of claims. How convenient that "private polls" showing Donnelly doing well only started to be chatted about by the pundits on Twitter AFTER the Marist poll came out.  Before that the conventional wisdom was that the "private polls" showed a tie. And how convenient that "private polls" showing Yoder doing poorly were only suddenly a thing AFTER the Siena poll came out.

They should put their money where their mouth is and start calling some of these races before public polls are released. Maybe then their insight would mean something.

And honestly, considering the genius "experts" had PA-17 as a pure toss up for months, I question whether they even have more insight than the average Atlas poster does.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

KY-06 Pulse Research-

Barr (R): 47%
McGrath (D): 47%

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/KentuckyTermLimitsPollResults2018.pdf

[psychprofessor]

MonmouthPoll
‏ @MonmouthPoll
22m22 minutes ago

VIRGINIA CD07 POLL: US House election
All potential voters:
  
@SpanbergerVA07 (D) 47
@DaveBratVA7th (R) 42
  
Likely voters:
Standard model - Spanberger 47 / Brat 47
Dem-surge model - Spanberger 48 / Brat 45
    
#VA07 #Midterms2018

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

WOAH

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Brat is just too extreme.

We'd see similar results in some of the most Republican districts if the right-wing media would just cover the races there.

[Zaybay]

The VA Republicans are screwed....is what I would say if we didnt have the NYT poll, which heavily disputes the results. The only thing I can glean from this is that the race is a tossup.

[Xing]

Nate Cohn mentioned that PA-07 and NJ-03 would be the first polls of theirs to find more Democratic-friendly results than Monmouth, so it's not a surprise that Monmouth found a tie in VA-07.

[ON Progressive]

MonmouthPoll
‏ @MonmouthPoll
22m22 minutes ago

VIRGINIA CD07 POLL: US House election
All potential voters:
  
@SpanbergerVA07 (D) 47
@DaveBratVA7th (R) 42
  
Likely voters:
Standard model - Spanberger 47 / Brat 47
Dem-surge model - Spanberger 48 / Brat 45
    
#VA07 #Midterms2018

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044619414933565440

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044619414933565440

Spanberger did a very good job hitting back from that smear job, making it clear it came from a confidential source that the Republicans should have had. Brings about allusions to the illegal attacks on Hillary, which probably played well in this highly educated district.

[Jeppe]

The VA Republicans are screwed....is what I would say if we didnt have the NYT poll, which heavily disputes the results. The only thing I can glean from this is that the race is a tossup.

The NYT’s likely-voter model found Brat +4. Monmouth’s poll found them tied a week and a bit later, when we’ve seen noticeable movement towards Dems in the generic ballot. Pretty plausible.

[Zaybay]

The VA Republicans are screwed....is what I would say if we didnt have the NYT poll, which heavily disputes the results. The only thing I can glean from this is that the race is a tossup.

The NYT’s likely-voter model found Brat +4. Monmouth’s poll found them tied a week later, when we’ve seen noticeable movement towards Dems in the generic ballot. Pretty plausible.

I am referring to the registered voter numbers of both polls, which gave Brat+7, as likely is much more subjective to the actual pollster. And nothing has really shifted in the GCB since last week, in fact, it was higher when this poll was taken. If things are going to shift that much in just a week, then Ojeda is winning by 10, and every poll done will end with a D victory.