2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 01, 2024, 01:14:26 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 [11] 12 13 14 15 16 ... 75
Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130596 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,916
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #250 on: September 21, 2018, 08:27:28 AM »
Quote from: #NeverBagel on September 21, 2018, 07:56:18 AM
Quote from: ajc0918 on September 21, 2018, 07:31:02 AM
Some Florida polls from PPP, commissioned by Save Our Care:

FL-18:
Brian Mast (R) - 46
Lauren Baer (D) - 43
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275350-baer-within-three-mast

FL-25:
Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - 41
Mary Barzee Flores  (D) - 36
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275349-poll-barzee-flores-closing

FL-26:
Carlos Curbelo (R) - 45
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - 46
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275351-curbelo-trailing-newest-poll

Exceptional numbers all around, especially from FL-26. I was under the impression that most internals were showing Curbelo ahead. Either this is an outlier or the race has really moved quite a bit.

18 and 25 are great too, I wouldn't have expected us to be so close to Mast and the fact that Diaz-Balart is only at 41 is surprising and a good sign.

FL-18 was Patrick Murphy's seat and he was able to boot out Allen West in 2012 and hold it by a landslide in 2014, so it's definitely competitive. It's been underrated this cycle if you ask me.

I'm really curious exactly how many seats in FL Democrats actually stand a chance in, because we've gotten a lot of polls that are somewhat similar to these for Democrats in other seats. If you were to assume those were all competitive, it would suggest Democrats have a chance at picking up anywhere from 1 - 6 seats or so, which the upper end of that range being a crazy good election.
Logged
wesmoorenerd
westroopnerd
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,600
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #251 on: September 21, 2018, 08:33:37 AM »
Quote from: Virginiá on September 21, 2018, 08:27:28 AM
Quote from: #NeverBagel on September 21, 2018, 07:56:18 AM
Quote from: ajc0918 on September 21, 2018, 07:31:02 AM
Some Florida polls from PPP, commissioned by Save Our Care:

FL-18:
Brian Mast (R) - 46
Lauren Baer (D) - 43
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275350-baer-within-three-mast

FL-25:
Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - 41
Mary Barzee Flores  (D) - 36
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275349-poll-barzee-flores-closing

FL-26:
Carlos Curbelo (R) - 45
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - 46
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275351-curbelo-trailing-newest-poll

Exceptional numbers all around, especially from FL-26. I was under the impression that most internals were showing Curbelo ahead. Either this is an outlier or the race has really moved quite a bit.

18 and 25 are great too, I wouldn't have expected us to be so close to Mast and the fact that Diaz-Balart is only at 41 is surprising and a good sign.

FL-18 was Patrick Murphy's seat and he was able to boot out Allen West in 2012 and hold it by a landslide in 2014, so it's definitely competitive. It's been underrated this cycle if you ask me.

I'm really curious exactly how many seats in FL Democrats actually stand a chance in, because we've gotten a lot of polls that are somewhat similar to these for Democrats in other seats. If you were to assume those were all competitive, it would suggest Democrats have a chance at picking up anywhere from 1 - 6 seats or so, which would be a crazy good election.

I think the thing with FL-18 is that Mast seems like quite a strong incumbent. He raised a ton of money last quarter (almost 900K) and he has a charismatic profile.

The thing about Florida I've noticed is there are very few competitive seats in which Dems are actually favored (only one, actually, FL-27) but there's a huge number of competitive seats where Dems are within striking distance (06, 15, 16, 18, 25, 26, maybe even 12, 08, and 19). In other words, Dems probably underwhelm on an average night, but just a few additional points on the GCB would net Dems up to six additional seats.
Logged
ajc0918
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,931
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #252 on: September 21, 2018, 08:34:33 AM »
Quote from: Virginiá on September 21, 2018, 08:27:28 AM
Quote from: #NeverBagel on September 21, 2018, 07:56:18 AM
Quote from: ajc0918 on September 21, 2018, 07:31:02 AM
Some Florida polls from PPP, commissioned by Save Our Care:

FL-18:
Brian Mast (R) - 46
Lauren Baer (D) - 43
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275350-baer-within-three-mast

FL-25:
Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - 41
Mary Barzee Flores  (D) - 36
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275349-poll-barzee-flores-closing

FL-26:
Carlos Curbelo (R) - 45
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - 46
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275351-curbelo-trailing-newest-poll

Exceptional numbers all around, especially from FL-26. I was under the impression that most internals were showing Curbelo ahead. Either this is an outlier or the race has really moved quite a bit.

18 and 25 are great too, I wouldn't have expected us to be so close to Mast and the fact that Diaz-Balart is only at 41 is surprising and a good sign.

FL-18 was Patrick Murphy's seat and he was able to boot out Allen West in 2012 and hold it by a landslide in 2014, so it's definitely competitive. It's been underrated this cycle if you ask me.

I'm really curious exactly how many seats in FL Democrats actually stand a chance in, because we've gotten a lot of polls that are somewhat similar to these for Democrats in other seats. If you were to assume those were all competitive, it would suggest Democrats have a chance at picking up anywhere from 1 - 6 seats or so, which the upper end of that range being a crazy good election.

Yeah I think 7 would likely be the max. gained, but that is extremely unlikely. FL-06 (DeSantis, Open), FL-15 (Dennis Ross, Open), FL-16 (Buchanan), FL-18 (Mast), FL-25 (Diaz Balart), FL-26 (Curbelo), FL-27 (IRL, Open).

I think picking up FL-27, FL-26, and maybe one other would be realistic.
Logged
Jeppe
Bosse
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,805
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #253 on: September 21, 2018, 10:45:47 AM »
I think FL-15 flips. It's a Trump +10 district that doesn't have an incumbent, and our candidate is quite good.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #254 on: September 21, 2018, 11:39:18 AM »
From that RNC POS internal poll, some interesting results. They have the GCB as D+9, but framing the the contest as between Pelosi aligned candidates and Trump aligned candidates puts it at D+5.

Logged
TheRocketRaccoon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 761
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #255 on: September 21, 2018, 12:43:07 PM »
DCCC WV-3: Ojeda 48 Miller 44
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #256 on: September 21, 2018, 12:44:26 PM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on September 21, 2018, 12:43:07 PM
DCCC WV-3: Ojeda 48 Miller 44


DCCC internal? Yep, I'm gonna believe Siena.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,065
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #257 on: September 21, 2018, 12:45:38 PM »
The district is a tossup, no surprises here.
Logged
Florida Man for Crime
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,896


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #258 on: September 21, 2018, 12:50:28 PM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on September 21, 2018, 07:31:02 AM
Some Florida polls from PPP, commissioned by Save Our Care:

FL-18:
Brian Mast (R) - 46
Lauren Baer (D) - 43
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275350-baer-within-three-mast

FL-25:
Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - 41
Mary Barzee Flores  (D) - 36
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275349-poll-barzee-flores-closing

FL-26:
Carlos Curbelo (R) - 45
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - 46
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275351-curbelo-trailing-newest-poll

Those are definitely good results for Dems, with all incumbents well below 50, but keep in mind... If they polled all those, they probably also polled other races such as FL-15, FL-16, FL-27, and maybe FL-06. Let's see if any of those get released.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #259 on: September 21, 2018, 12:50:42 PM »
An Iowa poll by Selzer for the DMR will be released tomorrow.

About time ... to see where the Gov. race really stands right now.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #260 on: September 21, 2018, 12:51:35 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 21, 2018, 12:50:42 PM
An Iowa poll by Selzer for the DMR will be released tomorrow.

Great. A good week ruined.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,356
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #261 on: September 21, 2018, 01:09:19 PM »
Are we really taking internals at face value now?
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,963


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #262 on: September 21, 2018, 01:13:16 PM »
How is the GOP doing this well? In 2012, there were several Republicans who made rape comments and got destroyed in the polls (deservedly so). The whole Kavanaugh controversy is like that 10 times over, yet they're still doing as well as they are?
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,047
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #263 on: September 21, 2018, 01:15:13 PM »
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on September 21, 2018, 01:13:16 PM
How is the GOP doing this well? In 2012, there were several Republicans who made rape comments and got destroyed in the polls (deservedly so). The whole Kavanaugh controversy is like that 10 times over, yet they're still doing as well as they are?

They aren't really doing that well... lol. Plus, we are in an extreme partisan age right now.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,047
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #264 on: September 21, 2018, 01:18:51 PM »
Michigan Generic Ballot-

Democrats: 53%
Republicans: 40%

Source: Mitchell Research & Communications
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #265 on: September 21, 2018, 01:21:45 PM »
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on September 21, 2018, 01:13:16 PM
How is the GOP doing this well? In 2012, there were several Republicans who made rape comments and got destroyed in the polls (deservedly so). The whole Kavanaugh controversy is like that 10 times over, yet they're still doing as well as they are?
Kavanaugh isn't on the ballot. However, Republicans have been way more pro-rape lately.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,118


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #266 on: September 21, 2018, 01:27:39 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on September 21, 2018, 01:18:51 PM
Michigan Generic Ballot-

Democrats: 53%
Republicans: 40%

Source: Mitchell Research & Communications

That's a very strange poll.  The GCB looks really good for Democrats, but Trump's approval looks way too high to be consistent with the GCB number:  Approve 46 (strongly 38!), Disapprove 52 (strongly 47).
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #267 on: September 21, 2018, 01:37:56 PM »
Logged
Florida Man for Crime
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,896


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #268 on: September 21, 2018, 01:55:08 PM »
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on September 21, 2018, 01:13:16 PM
How is the GOP doing this well? In 2012, there were several Republicans who made rape comments and got destroyed in the polls (deservedly so). The whole Kavanaugh controversy is like that 10 times over, yet they're still doing as well as they are?

The Kavanaugh news is very recent, still very much developing, and hasn't had much time to sink in, and there are not a lot of polls yet after it started to break.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,118


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #269 on: September 21, 2018, 02:03:54 PM »
PA GCB (Muhlenberg College): D 50, R 39

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-morning-call-muhlenberg-poll-pennsylvania-catholic-church-20180921-htmlstory.html
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #270 on: September 21, 2018, 02:04:39 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on September 21, 2018, 01:37:56 PM

Wasserman moved this to "Likely" D, lol.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,916
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #271 on: September 21, 2018, 02:42:18 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on September 21, 2018, 01:18:51 PM
Michigan Generic Ballot-

Democrats: 53%
Republicans: 40%

Source: Mitchell Research & Communications


Both of these should be enough to flip at least each of their state Houses, Michigan especially so. Maybe even the state Senate in MI.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,047
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #272 on: September 21, 2018, 03:38:34 PM »
Morning Consult had the GCB in Pennsylvania at +9 in their last poll (April) so this is an improvement for the Dems.
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #273 on: September 21, 2018, 03:40:21 PM »
If there's a place Dems can do well, it will be in Pennsylvania, as there is still a bunch of lowhanging fruit. Too bad Scott Wallace is anti-Israel, though.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #274 on: September 21, 2018, 04:15:46 PM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on September 21, 2018, 12:43:07 PM
DCCC WV-3: Ojeda 48 Miller 44



I always knew national dems would help him out.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 [11] 12 13 14 15 16 ... 75  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.063 seconds with 12 queries.