OH NBC/Marist: Brown +13

[Xing]

Pretty close to moving this to Safe D, at this point. A massive polling error like we had in 2016 would still mean a mid-high single digit Brown win.

More like RIP "Lean R Ohio" if this is even close to accurate.

For this year, sure, but 2020 is a long way off.

[Xing]

More like RIP "Lean R Ohio" if this is even close to accurate.

For this year, sure, but 2020 is a long way off.

OH is probably a Toss-up in 2020, maybe even Lean D with someone like Sanders or Brown.

I don't know, Ohio is probably the state that I'm the most pessimistic about in the Midwest. While Brown winning by double digits would definitely be evidence against the idea that Ohio is a red state now, I think it's still easily the most likely Obama/Trump state to hold for Trump. Likely R definitely was/is a stretch, but I'm not confident that Democrats will be able to replicate Brown's success so easily here again in 2020.