FL-AARP/Armandi: DeSantis +2 among 50+ year old Hispanics
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  FL-AARP/Armandi: DeSantis +2 among 50+ year old Hispanics
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Author Topic: FL-AARP/Armandi: DeSantis +2 among 50+ year old Hispanics  (Read 701 times)
ON Progressive
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 25, 2018, 01:39:52 PM »

DeSantis 44
Gillum 42



Considering this would be mostly older Cubans (read: heavily GOP), this is truly terrible for DeSantis.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2018, 01:45:04 PM »

These polls on demographic (sub)groups are weird. Why do we just see them out of the state of Florida?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2018, 01:45:18 PM »

*golf clap* STOP *golf clap* POLLING *golf clap* ONE *golf clap* DEMOGRAPHIC *golf clap*
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2018, 02:06:36 PM »

Polls lie and FL may be trending GOP, but we will see when next QU polls come out
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2018, 02:15:48 PM »

Oh.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2018, 02:27:59 PM »

Polls lie and to some extent, they have NV Leading GOP and FL Democratic
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Bakersfield Uber Alles
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2018, 06:11:42 PM »

These polls on demographic (sub)groups are weird. Why do we just see them out of the state of Florida?

Because old Cuban people are about 85% of the population, of course.
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2018, 06:22:01 PM »

What a stupid and pointless poll.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2018, 09:46:11 PM »


What % of the 2018 GOV electorate will fall into this category one must surely wonder?

I'm not a hater on the AARP polls in general when it comes to the "Senior Vote" (50+ Years typically ?).

In an a typical off-year election, especially with an aging electorate the 50+ Vote can account for a huge % of total voters, and in many ways the Senior Vote will be one of the most interesting things to look at in the aftermath of the 2018 GE to see what the "Tea Leaves" show for the 2020 GE.

It's pretty clear looking at Special Election results and polling about support for ACA, that Seniors appear to be rapidly swinging hard towards the Democratic Party, especially compared with the 2016 GE PRES results among that demographic.

Yeah--- agree this one is a bit bogus, and something tells me the AARP polling database might be a bit more lacking when it comes to polling Latino Seniors in Florida than other Senior populations...

Still, I pulled this up from Univision about this same poll....

https://www.univision.com/miami/wltv/noticias/politica/en-florida-los-republicanos-llevan-la-ventaja-gracias-al-voto-hispano-mayor-de-50-anos

And then I found other results from AARP polling of Latinos in Florida only a few years back...

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/general/2016/women-voters-50plus-latinas-report-spanish.pdf

https://local.aarp.org/news/nuevos-datos-de-aarp-nuevas-tecnologas-y-soluciones-modernas-pueden-crear-opciones-para-dnde-y-cmo-viven-los-floridanos-y-como-envejecen-miami-dade-fl-2016-10-11.html

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nueva-encuesta-de-aarp-muestra-que-las-votantes-latinas-50-estan-influenciadas-por-la-ansiedad-economica-la-preocupacion-por-el-seguro-social-y-los-retos-de-la-prestacion-de-cuidados-598433311.html

http://www.lafamiliadebroward.com/encuesta-de-aarp-dice-que-representantes-pueden-perder-el-voto-los-mayores-floridanos-si-apoyan-recortes-al-seguro-social/

So, although we can question the survey results from the poll, it's not as if the AARP just recently developed polling methodologies of Floridian Latino voters, since I easily within 10 minutes found political polling they have conducted in Florida going back to 2013...

I confess, I did not data-mine the polls for accuracy, and although one could certainly question the total vote share of this sub-sample within the electorate in 2018, it is still important, since every vote counts, especially in Florida, where a recall awhile back a Presidential Election was decided by slightly over 500 votes under a cloudy shadow....

La historia familiar de Ted Cruz es muy diferente de la gran mayoría de las personas mayores cubanas de hoy

I'll take a "Geek AARP Poll" even though it might not amount to a hill of beans versus no data about the voting intentions of older Latino Seniors in Florida.    Smiley

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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2018, 01:34:18 AM »

So we've gone from polling just seniors or just Hispanics to polling just senior Hispanics. At this rate we'll be polling only 78 year old Cuban cigar smokers living in Hialeah in no time.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2018, 01:55:29 AM »

So we've gone from polling just seniors or just Hispanics to polling just senior Hispanics. At this rate we'll be polling only 78 year old Cuban cigar smokers living in Hialeah in no time.

537 is the magic number my friend, and surely there must be at least that many 78 year old Cuban cigar smokers living in South Florida....     Smiley

There is an old riddle from back in the days....

The 78 Year Old Cubans of Today, would have been 60 in '00, while meanwhile the 78 Year Old Cubans of '00 would be 96 today...

How many 78 Year Old Cubans are there today compared to 78 Year Cubans of '00?

I would happily take a +2% R Spread of 50+ Latinos in Florida in '18 any day versus a +20% R spread of yonder years gone bye.... Smiley

I suspect that magic number makes that 537 margin and takes it "Back to the Future"....
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