CNN-NV-Rosen +4

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nice! I expect this to even increase to 6 or 7 after Heller votes for Kavanaut!

[IceSpear]

Manchin has pulled away and has it almost locked up, currently Dems are actually more likely to win WV than NV. Polls might change by election day but otoh they might not.

When you consider the fundamentals of the states, it's not like it's a coin flip as to which direction the polls could potentially move toward. Manchin and Heller are clearly more likely to lose ground than gain ground. They're both incumbents with higher name recognition than their opponents running in hostile states (WV is much more hostile than NV obviously, but Manchin is far more popular than Heller.)

[Skye]

Well, the polls certainly underestimated Sandoval in 2014.

Though that's probably not going to happen here.

[Pericles]

Manchin has pulled away and has it almost locked up, currently Dems are actually more likely to win WV than NV. Polls might change by election day but otoh they might not.

When you consider the fundamentals of the states, it's not like it's a coin flip as to which direction the polls could potentially move toward. Manchin and Heller are clearly more likely to lose ground than gain ground. They're both incumbents with higher name recognition than their opponents running in hostile states (WV much more hostile than NV obviously, but Manchin is far more popular than Heller.)

538's fundamental model actually has Manchin running ahead by 9 points. He's a strong incumbent and he's won big in more difficult environments. The assumption that Manchin is doomed to fall is just an assumption and one that could easily prove to be incorrect. I'm not ruling out the race narrowing but it isn't certain to happen.

[IceSpear]

Manchin has pulled away and has it almost locked up, currently Dems are actually more likely to win WV than NV. Polls might change by election day but otoh they might not.

When you consider the fundamentals of the states, it's not like it's a coin flip as to which direction the polls could potentially move toward. Manchin and Heller are clearly more likely to lose ground than gain ground. They're both incumbents with higher name recognition than their opponents running in hostile states (WV much more hostile than NV obviously, but Manchin is far more popular than Heller.)

538's fundamental model actually has Manchin running ahead by 9 points. He's a strong incumbent and he's won big in more difficult environments. The assumption that Manchin is doomed to fall is just an assumption and one that could easily prove to be incorrect. I'm not ruling out the race narrowing but it isn't certain to happen.

He's not certain to fall, but he's more likely to fall than he is to gain. Same for Heller, barring scandals or an abrupt change in the political environment.

[IceSpear]

Heller is certainly an underdog but the hysteria that he's 100% certain to lose is nonsensical. He still has a chance, polls aren't everything.

You're right, polls aren't everything. As Republicans in Nevada know all too well.

*SNIP*

Attorney General Ross Miller says hi.

Uh...the only poll of that race was conducted 8 months before the election.

Sandoval in 2014 is the only counterexample, but we call that the exception that proves the rule.

[Xing]

Well, the polls certainly underestimated Sandoval in 2014.

Though that's probably not going to happen here.

True, but that was kind of a special case, in that Sandoval was massively popular, and didn't struggle with Latino voters. In NV-PRES 2008, NV-SEN 2010, NV-GOV 2010, NV-PRES 2012, NV-SEN 2012, NV-PRES 2016, and NV-SEN 2016, though, polls underestimated Democrats, and often did so by massive margins.

[Skye]

Well, the polls certainly underestimated Sandoval in 2014.

Though that's probably not going to happen here.

True, but that was kind of a special case, in that Sandoval was massively popular, and didn't struggle with Latino voters. In NV-PRES 2008, NV-SEN 2010, NV-GOV 2010, NV-PRES 2012, NV-SEN 2012, NV-PRES 2016, and NV-SEN 2016, though, polls underestimated Democrats, and often did so by massive margins.

Actually, the polls underestimated Sandoval by more than 20 points in 2014, which is far more "massive" than the examples you mentioned.



I'm just teasing, I just posted it to counter IceSpear's post where he makes it seem like every race in NV underestimates the Democrats. If anything, they'll probably overestimate the GOP again, like I said before.

[IceSpear]

Well, the polls certainly underestimated Sandoval in 2014.

Though that's probably not going to happen here.

True, but that was kind of a special case, in that Sandoval was massively popular, and didn't struggle with Latino voters. In NV-PRES 2008, NV-SEN 2010, NV-GOV 2010, NV-PRES 2012, NV-SEN 2012, NV-PRES 2016, and NV-SEN 2016, though, polls underestimated Democrats, and often did so by massive margins.

You forgot NV-Pres 2004, NV-03 2010, NV-03 2012, and NV-04 2012.

[adrac]

This is what happens when you poll in Spanish. I think 538 failing to account for persistent polling errors like these is a pretty significant flaw.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Another great poll!

[Torrain]

Wunderbar!