Michael Portillo elected Tory leader in 2001

[Don Vito Corleone]

IRL, Michael Portillo missed making the members runoff of the 2001 Tory Leadership vote by only one MP. What if he had made the runoff? Would he win the members vote (I think he would, but I've heard the argument that he had burned so many bridges he couldn't win the members vote even against Ken Clarke)? If he did win, how would his leadership go?

[Lechasseur]

He does no better than Michael Howard does IRL

[Pericles]

He does no better than Michael Howard does IRL

Howard ran a pretty bad campaign, and had a pretty poor brand as well, plus there wouldn't be the 2 years of IDS. Portillo's modernizer beliefs were similar to what David Cameron later did, and I think he'd boost the Tories at least a little bit. 2005 might end up as a hung parliament or a much narrower Labour win, so that would mean the Tories have less of a mountain to climb in 2010 and may be able to win a majority or come close enough that they don't need the LibDems(but there are also lots of other butterflies so maybe things go differently).
2005 UK election *
Tony Blair-Labour: 330-83 34.8%(-7.2%)
Michael Portillo-Conservative: 232+67 35.2%(+2.5%)
Charles Kennedy-LibDem: 53+2 22.1%(+3.3%)
646 seats
324 for majority

14-seat Labour majority(compared with 66-seat majority irl).

*Note Great Britain vote share used.

[Blair]

A part of me thinks that Portillo was slightly too far ahead of the Tory Party in terms of modernisation in 2001. The reason why Cameron won in 2005 (and was able to reform the party) was because the shock of three election results, and a new intake of MPs meant he had reforms in the party around him (May, Osborne, Gove)

As this write up from the 2001 election says...

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[Don Vito Corleone]

A part of me thinks that Portillo was slightly too far ahead of the Tory Party in terms of modernisation in 2001. The reason why Cameron won in 2005 (and was able to reform the party) was because the shock of three election results, and a new intake of MPs meant he had reforms in the party around him (May, Osborne, Gove)

As this write up from the 2001 election says...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Do you think Portillo would have won a members vote against Clarke, assuming the final choice was those 2 (as it almost was IRL)?

[Blair]

A part of me thinks that Portillo was slightly too far ahead of the Tory Party in terms of modernisation in 2001. The reason why Cameron won in 2005 (and was able to reform the party) was because the shock of three election results, and a new intake of MPs meant he had reforms in the party around him (May, Osborne, Gove)

As this write up from the 2001 election says...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Do you think Portillo would have won a members vote against Clarke, assuming the final choice was those 2 (as it almost was IRL)?

Probably not.

I imagine the members hated Clarke's views on Europe but they hated all of Portillo's views about modernising the party.

[brucejoel99]

Not too much changes, & Portillo is unlikely to get anywhere near power. The Tories had a 247 seat gap between them & Labour going into 2005, so it'd be very difficult to see that being overturned in one election, especially if they backed Iraq, which they would've still done under Portillo. Portillo might pick up a few more seats in 2005, but Howard didn't do a terrible job as party leader & the Tories did rather well for themselves, given the circumstances (certainly better than 2001). A better-directed campaign may fare better, but Blair likely still rides a majority back into 10 Downing Street. The best they can probably hope for is to force a hung parliament, w/ Labour remaining the largest party, but under such circumstances, they'd still be unlikely to make the math work for a coalition w/ the Lib Dems, which would be all but impossible anyway w/ Charles Kennedy at the helm, who would always opt for Labour. That's unlikely given infighting & support for Iraq, but if Portillo can minimize their effects *&* if he's popular, then it could very well be possible. And under those circumstances, I think even the Tories would be willing to admit that he'd earned another shot at it in 2010, when power would definitely be in there grasp.