Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[ON Progressive]

...

The leading candidate in this race is a white male you idiots.

Yeah, but I was told Democrats hate white men. Never mind that 61% of Democratic Senators (including the Democratic Senate leader and whip) and 81% of Democratic governors are white men, they HATE white men because I said so.

(This is sarcasm, if it’s not obvious enough)

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1006936215663374336

Evers briefly unveiled this about 5 days ago to not much fanfare. Thoughts anyone?

I know I'm late to the party here but the last two points are bad. Term limits are a silly, unnecessary  populist (and anti-intellectual) idea and reducing legislator salaries is a good way to ensure that only people who are already wealthy can run for office. Super disappointed that Evers would support either of these ideas.

I think the term limits are for statewide offices, which is fine. There’s no reason not to have term limits for things like governorships, and 12 years would be more generous than most states.

Also, in Wisconsin, teachers get paid more than state legislators do.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1029414373465444352?s=21

For comparison, 2016 August primary turnout was 6.5%.

[ON Progressive]

The Republican primary votes in the WOW counties greatly outnumber the Dem primary votes. I thought it would have been closer but I guess the WOW counties are pretty Republican even nowadays.

WOW didn't really move a lot in 2016 though, and they are extremely inelastic. Even Evers lost two of those counties as he was winning by 40 points statewide.

[ON Progressive]

Walker just found his new campaign prop

It's his Hurricane Sandy moment. Evers is DOA at this point.

This trolling isn't even funny anymore.

It could be his Hurricane Matthew moment: Enough to bolster him in the polls a bit but not enough to save him in the end.

Natural disasters tend to boost the in-party unless the response is bungled Katrina- style. I don't see Walker making Dubya's mistake.

Hurricane Harvey not making a dent in Trump's approval agrees that natural disasters guarantee a boost for the in-party.

[ON Progressive]

Another election ploy by Scott Walker: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/09/24/scott-walker-offers-50-increase-counties-fix-their-roads/1411699002/

He should've done this YEARS ago!

Pre-October surprise. This is good news for him.

Why?

It's hemorhofoid. He unironically thinks Wisconsin is a Titanium R state, so it's best to ignore him.

[ON Progressive]

https://www.wpr.org/walker-fundraising-outpacing-evers-6-weeks-out-election-day

Walker: $2.3 million
Evers: $1.9 million

That's not a big enough gap at all for me to be worried.

[ON Progressive]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

You must really have a low standard for a massive tightening if a two point shift is massive to you. Also, Obama got BTFO in Waukesha both elections and won them comfortably. Please delete your account, thanks.

[ON Progressive]

Hope WI doenst make their version of  getting rid of Stephen Harper mistake

You're implying getting rid of Stephen Harper was a mistake, which I can say it definitely wasn't. Getting rid of Scott Walker is also not a mistake.

[ON Progressive]

Evers +7 (51-44) and Baldwin +12 (53-41).

What's your source for this? I can't find that anywhere.

[ON Progressive]

Evers +7 (51-44) and Baldwin +12 (53-41).

What's your source for this? I can't find that anywhere.

Or is it a prediction?

Yeah, that's what I was thinking a couple minutes after I posted that.

[ON Progressive]

Vinehout ran an awful campaign, barely raised more than a few thousand dollars.

Not everything is about fundraising, as this race is showing. But I'm getting pretty used to people here not being willing to acknowledge to importance of rural areas and their preferences.

It's one thing if she raised less than the others, but still raised an OK amount. Raising a mere few thousand dollars is absolutely pathetic though. That wouldn't even be good enough for a county commissioner election, nevermind a statewide election!

[ON Progressive]

I'm tired of the notion that Walker "came back to win all his elections"

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2010? Every single one. In fact, the polls actually overestimated Walker in 2010!

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in his 2012 recall election? All but two, and none after February 2012. The polling average was exactly where he ended up too.

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2014? The vast majority of them, and he ultimately led in the polling average by election day.

Scott Walker's strength is severely overestimated by people just because he managed to perform like Generic R would in two GOP wave years and survived a recall which he was always favored in.

[ON Progressive]

I'm tired of the notion that Walker "came back to win all his elections"

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2010? Every single one. In fact, the polls actually overestimated Walker in 2010!

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in his 2012 recall election? All but two, and none after February 2012. The polling average was exactly where he ended up too.

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2014? The vast majority of them, and he ultimately led in the polling average by election day.

Scott Walker's strength is severely overestimated by people just because he managed to perform like Generic R would in two GOP wave years and survived a recall which he was always favored in.

A lot of us who have been around a while have been burned by this race quite a few times (3 times in 4 years, in fact!) so it makes sense that we'd be more cautious. The polling average doesn't really tell the whole story here. I couldn't tell you how many times the overconfident Dems insisted that we'd have Gov. Barrett and Gov. Burke, sometimes even backed up by favorable polling.

Anyone who got burned by 2010 and 2012's recall, it was clearly their fault for ignoring reality. Reality made it pretty obvious Scott Walker was going to win both. In fact, it was obvious for months in both cases.

I can't blame people as much for 2014, given that the polling average was actually pretty close towards the end and there was at least one October poll with Walker behind.

I do think it is a tossup still, maybe tilt Evers. However, I'm still annoyed at the narrative that "SCOTT WALKER IS A COMEBACK KID" as if he was ever really behind in any of his previous races.

[ON Progressive]

I've read somewhere that up to a quarter of registered voters in Dane and Milwaukee counties have been purged from the voter rolls. Is there any truth to that? This seems like an enormous figure.

I think I might have a spreadsheet at work, but yeah that's pretty close to accurate. I'll see if I can find the numbers tomorrow.

.........this is INSANE.

Under what pretense were they removed? And how many of them would have been likely to vote if they hadn't been disenfranchised? Could they reapply for registration?

Wisconsin has same-day registration, so that'll mitigate some of the blow at least.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/bradkowieski/status/1056715431787094016

This "Brad Kowieski" person could be being a little biased because looking at his Twitter feed, he seems to be a big Walker supporter and even denied the accuracy of the Marist poll. However, a tie is the most likely result of tommorrow's MU poll based on his alleged "early call" to the pollster.

Sounds about right to me. One can really see that Walker winning back WOW is key to a victory here.

Walker is not as strong in WOW as you think he is.

He did worse than Ron Johnson on the same ballot in 2010 in WOW despite doing better statewide than Ron.

[ON Progressive]

Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056

If Walker is winning WI-06 by 10 or fewer points, he really can't win.

He can easily make up the margins where Dems have struggled recently (The Driftless as well as Duffy's district).

If he can’t win WI-06, he can’t win the Driftless. You act like the Driftless is dark red because “muh 2016” when Rebecca Dallet dominated that same region in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.

[ON Progressive]

Can someone explain why St. Croix (practically Hudson and other cities)  and the surrounding counties (Dunn/Polk/etc.) swung and trended D from 2014? I've been seeing that in the specials, too.

Those are Twin Cities suburbs/exurbs so it makes a ton of sense those counties would trend D.

[ON Progressive]

According to Jay Schroeder, the Republican who lost the Secretary of State race, a "State Electoral College" is on the cards, too, because Madison and Milwaukee "voted" for the rest of the state this time. It's on his Facebook page.

That screams completely unconstitutional.

[ON Progressive]

Vos and Fitzgerald are blaming Evers...

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090663420616151041

Yeah, Dems better hope DJT wins re-election...otherwise Evers is 100% a one-termer (up from a current 80%). Mark my words.  

Incumbent governor Scott Walker and Senator Leah Vukmir agree that your predictions are very accurate.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1113196504422977537

[ON Progressive]

I really hope Hagedorn doesn't win. Turnout (while ok) isn't looking as good as last year's SCOTUS race.

Decreased dem enthusiasm is the name of the game.

Rain in NoWI, Neubauer is finished.

Your R hackery of WI never ceases to astound me.

It was a joke.