Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[IceSpear]

Now the Kochs are rushing to support Walker AGAIN to help him win and crash our blue wave. Argh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/kochs-fund-1point8-million-ads-for-wisconsins-walker-ahead-of-midterms.html

From that article:

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TIL 2012 never happened.

[IceSpear]

I never thought the senate race between Baldwin and Vukmor would end up being a tie. It is NOT a good sign that Walker is leading Evers 46-44 among registered voters. Walker is going to win, so everyone can stop with their theories now.

This post is pretty amusing. You use the RV numbers to set a narrative about the governor's race, then use the LV numbers to set a narrative about the Senate race. On top of that, even ignoring this contradiction, apparently Walker being up 2 is a massive insurmountable lead and means he's safe but Baldwin being up 2 is "a tie" and means she's doomed.

[IceSpear]

Walker is flopping and flailing a lot more this time around, which suggests things aren't going too well for him.

Well yeah, I don't think anyone besides hofoid believes Walker is going to be in as good of shape as he was in his other three elections.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1042130637359120384

White Non-College Educated Men: Walker +12
White Non-College Educated Women: Evers +2
White College Educated Men: Evers +4
White College Educated Women: Evers +26
Nonwhite or Hispanic: Evers +12

Don't show RINO Tom those numbers.

[IceSpear]

What's with everyone's boner for RINO Tom in every thread?!

Well, he's a very handsome man, but personally my boner was from that Evers +26 number.

[IceSpear]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

[IceSpear]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

2.5K votes cast compared to 3.1K in the Presidential race just a few months later. And basically comparable to the 2.4K cast in 2014, one of the lowest-turnout midterms in history.

Well yeah, of course it was never going to match or exceed the presidential race. But despite being a random special election in June it still exceeded turnout in 2010 and 2014, which was pretty damn impressive. In fact, it was the highest turnout ever for a Wisconsin gubernatorial race.

[IceSpear]

Huh, fair enough. I guess we just define "low-turnout" differently.

Lol yeah, the definition of "high turnout" in Murica is definitely a lot different than it is for most European countries.

[IceSpear]

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:

https://twitter.com/McCormickJohn/status/1044650149048397825

Walker is smart enough to know that a bunch of Republicans feeling complacent and staying home because of MUH 2016 is his worst nightmare.

[IceSpear]

Y’all need to take a chill pill. MU is the only poll to have Walker leading this whole year. Trust the average

I'll try. I contacted Emerson and Suffolk last week. Emerson said they'll be conducting a poll for WI at the end of the month, whereas Suffolk said they should be conducting a poll for WI soon (don't know how soon, but they put me on their polling distribution list, so I'll keep y'all updated).

Emerson is garbage though.

[IceSpear]

Baldwin will probably win by over 20 points at this rate. I am thinking that will be more than enough to push Bryce, Engebretson, and Liegeois over the top. Wisconsin will probably have a 6-2 Democratic delegation after this years elections.

I'm starting to think we need a Solid Nocturnal Emission megathread.

[IceSpear]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

A concern troll? The polls show there may be a lot of ticketsplitters, particularly MU. I think Evers has a good path to victory at this point, but it is frightening how Baldwin can lead in the double digits in one poll while Evers is behind by 1 in that same poll. That IS my biggest fear in this race. My state can be surprising, you know.

I know my purpose for being on Atlas. I'm not a concern troll - just a scared voter in this political climate, ESPECIALLY an election involving Scott Walker. The man has been reelected THREE TIMES, so why shouldn't I be scared? If that makes me a concern troll like Hofoid or Limo, so be it! If I come off as such to anybody else on this forum, I'm sorry. I'll try hard not to from this point forward.

you arent a concern troll. any reasonable person should think this is tussup ,with a tilt to evers (IMO)

A lot of people here think that if you're a Democrat who thinks a Democrat could lose any remotely competitive race then you're a concern troll.

[IceSpear]

I'm tired of the notion that Walker "came back to win all his elections"

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2010? Every single one. In fact, the polls actually overestimated Walker in 2010!

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in his 2012 recall election? All but two, and none after February 2012. The polling average was exactly where he ended up too.

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2014? The vast majority of them, and he ultimately led in the polling average by election day.

Scott Walker's strength is severely overestimated by people just because he managed to perform like Generic R would in two GOP wave years and survived a recall which he was always favored in.

A lot of us who have been around a while have been burned by this race quite a few times (3 times in 4 years, in fact!) so it makes sense that we'd be more cautious. The polling average doesn't really tell the whole story here. I couldn't tell you how many times the overconfident Dems insisted that we'd have Gov. Barrett and Gov. Burke, sometimes even backed up by favorable polling.

[IceSpear]

I'm tired of the notion that Walker "came back to win all his elections"

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2010? Every single one. In fact, the polls actually overestimated Walker in 2010!

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in his 2012 recall election? All but two, and none after February 2012. The polling average was exactly where he ended up too.

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2014? The vast majority of them, and he ultimately led in the polling average by election day.

Scott Walker's strength is severely overestimated by people just because he managed to perform like Generic R would in two GOP wave years and survived a recall which he was always favored in.

A lot of us who have been around a while have been burned by this race quite a few times (3 times in 4 years, in fact!) so it makes sense that we'd be more cautious. The polling average doesn't really tell the whole story here. I couldn't tell you how many times the overconfident Dems insisted that we'd have Gov. Barrett and Gov. Burke, sometimes even backed up by favorable polling.

Anyone who got burned by 2010 and 2012's recall, it was clearly their fault for ignoring reality. Reality made it pretty obvious Scott Walker was going to win both. In fact, it was obvious for months in both cases.

I can't blame people as much for 2014, given that the polling average was actually pretty close towards the end and there was at least one October poll with Walker behind.

I do think it is a tossup still, maybe tilt Evers. However, I'm still annoyed at the narrative that "SCOTT WALKER IS A COMEBACK KID" as if he was ever really behind in any of his previous races.

Yeah, Dems are usually pretty delusional. But I bought into the hype back in the day. Especially in 2012, when Dems as a whole were overly confident for no good reason.

[IceSpear]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Looks like some of that Trump WOW erosion was permanent. Baldwin's numbers in WOW were simply stunning as well. RIP hofoid.

[IceSpear]

Walker's performance among the most college-educated areas of the state, both Democratic and Republican, cost him the election. Through no fault of his own, Walker's performance trend followed Trump's performance in the 2016 election, as did almost every Republican's performance in almost every state. The WOW counties more than cancelled out Dane in 2014, and it wasn't even close. In 2018, it wasn't close either, but this time Dane outdid WOW.

WOW 2014

Walker: 230,240 (73.3%) (+146,537, 46.6%)
Burke: 83,703 (26.7%)

WOW 2018

Walker: 229,708 (67.8%) (+120,498, 35.6%)
Evers: 109,210 (32.2%)

Dane 2014

Burke: 175,937 (70.5%) (+102,261, 41.0%)
Walker: 73,676 (29.5%)

Dane 2018

Evers: 220,008 (76.1%) (+150,810, 52.2%)
Walker: 69,198 (23.9%)

Yeah, I'm feeling better about Wisconsin in 2020 than I did a week ago. I thought WOW would end up being more similar to Mormon anti-Trumpers rather than the other suburban anti-Trumpers, but I guess not. Look at Tammy Baldwin's performance in WOW for some real eye popping numbers. And that was Vukmir's "base"!

[IceSpear]

Lame duck sessions should be abolished.

[IceSpear]

Okay! This person is a genius. Governor-elect Evers should consider this! Howard Dean is a smart governor!

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1070477774878457856

Yep. Dems need to play hardball, otherwise the GOP will never learn. The only thing they understand is raw power. Unilaterally disarming and hoping the GOP magically becomes a sane party or that the voters will hold them accountable for their disdain for democracy is an incredibly foolish strategy, and will only continue to encourage their behavior and allow them to keep pushing the envelope further and further.

Removing the legislature's budget in Wisconsin is a good start. Let's also abolish the redistricting commission in California and draw a 51-2 map (be sure to gerrymander out McCarthy as well.) Court packing should also be on the table. Once the GOP is ready to be a serious political party again rather than attempting to turn the country into a banana republic due to their lust for power, then we can come to the negotiating table.

[IceSpear]

The rural surge for Hagdorn is really surprising me tbh.

Why in the world would that surprise you? That would be like a Republican saying they're surprised that their performance in Madison is abysmal.

[IceSpear]

Do we know that DDHQ is reporting all of the counties that JS has reported? That could be key here.

That's what I'm wondering. If DDHQ has Walworth in, it could still go either way. If they don't, Hagedorn has won.