Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

Atlantic: I Respected Scott Walker. Then I Worked For Him.

Peter Bildsten
Former secretary of the Wisconsin Department of Financial Institutions

[Dr. Arch]

Evers reads mean tweets:

https://www.facebook.com/Tony4WI/videos/1027615327409706/

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Cannot wait for the next Marquette poll. This race has been the most exciting this year, bar none.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Cannot wait for the next Marquette poll. This race has been the most exciting this year, bar none.

I bet you can't!

[Scottholes 2.0]

Okay....what is everyone's predictions for the final MU law poll on Oct. 31?

[libertpaulian]

I'm predicting a tie to be safe.

[OneJ]

I'll just guess Evers +2.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I'm also predicting either a tie (though a slight Walker or Evers lead wouldn't surprise me). If the next MU poll shows Walker leading and tied with Evers, I will be more worried than I am now.

Also, can I just express how disappointed I am in my residence of Janesville? https://madison.com/ct/news/local/roundup/state-debate-janesville-gazette-picks-vukmir-over-baldwin/article_56ed36c4-d7c2-11e8-bd1c-637e4d70b448.html

[Gass3268]

The last poll was like during the middle of the Kavanaugh brew-ha-ha, so I'm guessing Evers +1.

[MasterJedi]

Voted early in Oak Creek, were four other older people voting early too. First time voting all Dem, was very sickening to vote for Larson though.

[MT Treasurer]

It’ll be Evers +4 or +5, and Atlas will proceed to call the race for Evers before a single vote has been counted.

[Gass3268]

It’ll be Evers +4 or +5, and Atlas will proceed to call the race for Evers before a single vote has been counted.

Yup

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It’ll be Evers +4 or +5, and Atlas will proceed to call the race for Evers before a single vote has been counted.

Mhmm, if there's something everyone can agree on, Dems are too overconfident about Wisconsin.

[The Dowager Mod]

Walker's like a bad case of crotch rot, just when you think you beat it, it comes back.

[ON Progressive]

I'm tired of the notion that Walker "came back to win all his elections"

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2010? Every single one. In fact, the polls actually overestimated Walker in 2010!

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in his 2012 recall election? All but two, and none after February 2012. The polling average was exactly where he ended up too.

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2014? The vast majority of them, and he ultimately led in the polling average by election day.

Scott Walker's strength is severely overestimated by people just because he managed to perform like Generic R would in two GOP wave years and survived a recall which he was always favored in.

[Xing]

It’ll be Evers +4 or +5, and Atlas will proceed to call the race for Evers before a single vote has been counted.

Yep, and if it's Evers +1 or anything better for Walker, people will be freaking out, and the usual suspects will be saying "Yeah, I knew Walker was inevitable. Wisconsin is a deep red state now."

I'll predict Evers +3, Baldwin +11.

[Dr. Arch]

This race is this year's VA 2017.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I'm tired of the notion that Walker "came back to win all his elections"

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2010? Every single one. In fact, the polls actually overestimated Walker in 2010!

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in his 2012 recall election? All but two, and none after February 2012. The polling average was exactly where he ended up too.

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2014? The vast majority of them, and he ultimately led in the polling average by election day.

Scott Walker's strength is severely overestimated by people just because he managed to perform like Generic R would in two GOP wave years and survived a recall which he was always favored in.

You make some very valid points!

[Gass3268]

It was nice to see Obama call out Walker as the liar he is today.

[IceSpear]

I'm tired of the notion that Walker "came back to win all his elections"

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2010? Every single one. In fact, the polls actually overestimated Walker in 2010!

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in his 2012 recall election? All but two, and none after February 2012. The polling average was exactly where he ended up too.

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2014? The vast majority of them, and he ultimately led in the polling average by election day.

Scott Walker's strength is severely overestimated by people just because he managed to perform like Generic R would in two GOP wave years and survived a recall which he was always favored in.

A lot of us who have been around a while have been burned by this race quite a few times (3 times in 4 years, in fact!) so it makes sense that we'd be more cautious. The polling average doesn't really tell the whole story here. I couldn't tell you how many times the overconfident Dems insisted that we'd have Gov. Barrett and Gov. Burke, sometimes even backed up by favorable polling.

[ON Progressive]

I'm tired of the notion that Walker "came back to win all his elections"

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2010? Every single one. In fact, the polls actually overestimated Walker in 2010!

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in his 2012 recall election? All but two, and none after February 2012. The polling average was exactly where he ended up too.

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2014? The vast majority of them, and he ultimately led in the polling average by election day.

Scott Walker's strength is severely overestimated by people just because he managed to perform like Generic R would in two GOP wave years and survived a recall which he was always favored in.

A lot of us who have been around a while have been burned by this race quite a few times (3 times in 4 years, in fact!) so it makes sense that we'd be more cautious. The polling average doesn't really tell the whole story here. I couldn't tell you how many times the overconfident Dems insisted that we'd have Gov. Barrett and Gov. Burke, sometimes even backed up by favorable polling.

Anyone who got burned by 2010 and 2012's recall, it was clearly their fault for ignoring reality. Reality made it pretty obvious Scott Walker was going to win both. In fact, it was obvious for months in both cases.

I can't blame people as much for 2014, given that the polling average was actually pretty close towards the end and there was at least one October poll with Walker behind.

I do think it is a tossup still, maybe tilt Evers. However, I'm still annoyed at the narrative that "SCOTT WALKER IS A COMEBACK KID" as if he was ever really behind in any of his previous races.

[IceSpear]

I'm tired of the notion that Walker "came back to win all his elections"

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2010? Every single one. In fact, the polls actually overestimated Walker in 2010!

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in his 2012 recall election? All but two, and none after February 2012. The polling average was exactly where he ended up too.

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2014? The vast majority of them, and he ultimately led in the polling average by election day.

Scott Walker's strength is severely overestimated by people just because he managed to perform like Generic R would in two GOP wave years and survived a recall which he was always favored in.

A lot of us who have been around a while have been burned by this race quite a few times (3 times in 4 years, in fact!) so it makes sense that we'd be more cautious. The polling average doesn't really tell the whole story here. I couldn't tell you how many times the overconfident Dems insisted that we'd have Gov. Barrett and Gov. Burke, sometimes even backed up by favorable polling.

Anyone who got burned by 2010 and 2012's recall, it was clearly their fault for ignoring reality. Reality made it pretty obvious Scott Walker was going to win both. In fact, it was obvious for months in both cases.

I can't blame people as much for 2014, given that the polling average was actually pretty close towards the end and there was at least one October poll with Walker behind.

I do think it is a tossup still, maybe tilt Evers. However, I'm still annoyed at the narrative that "SCOTT WALKER IS A COMEBACK KID" as if he was ever really behind in any of his previous races.

Yeah, Dems are usually pretty delusional. But I bought into the hype back in the day. Especially in 2012, when Dems as a whole were overly confident for no good reason.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I'm tired of the notion that Walker "came back to win all his elections"

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2010? Every single one. In fact, the polls actually overestimated Walker in 2010!

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in his 2012 recall election? All but two, and none after February 2012. The polling average was exactly where he ended up too.

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2014? The vast majority of them, and he ultimately led in the polling average by election day.

Scott Walker's strength is severely overestimated by people just because he managed to perform like Generic R would in two GOP wave years and survived a recall which he was always favored in.

A lot of us who have been around a while have been burned by this race quite a few times (3 times in 4 years, in fact!) so it makes sense that we'd be more cautious. The polling average doesn't really tell the whole story here. I couldn't tell you how many times the overconfident Dems insisted that we'd have Gov. Barrett and Gov. Burke, sometimes even backed up by favorable polling.

Anyone who got burned by 2010 and 2012's recall, it was clearly their fault for ignoring reality. Reality made it pretty obvious Scott Walker was going to win both. In fact, it was obvious for months in both cases.

I can't blame people as much for 2014, given that the polling average was actually pretty close towards the end and there was at least one October poll with Walker behind.

I do think it is a tossup still, maybe tilt Evers. However, I'm still annoyed at the narrative that "SCOTT WALKER IS A COMEBACK KID" as if he was ever really behind in any of his previous races.

Seriously, you make some really valid points based on Walker's past polling and maybe we have been overestimating Walker. He has only led in two polls this cycle, both of which are from the same polling company (Marquette). I looked at Walker's past polling and having thought about it, I think Evers has a good shot at winning, especially with Tammy Baldwin downballot. Remember when we thought the Virginia governor race was going to be really close?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html

Northam ended up winning by a 9-point margin, so if there is indeed a blue wave in 10 days, I doubt Walker will survive it.

Let's hope that last MU poll was the Kavanaugh effect, though. #Evers2018! #GetRidofScottHoles!

[Gass3268]

I'll be interested to see if Charles Franklin will discuss the responses he got each day. I am wondering if there were any changes do to the events of the past few days.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I'm tired of the notion that Walker "came back to win all his elections"

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2010? Every single one. In fact, the polls actually overestimated Walker in 2010!

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in his 2012 recall election? All but two, and none after February 2012. The polling average was exactly where he ended up too.

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2014? The vast majority of them, and he ultimately led in the polling average by election day.

Scott Walker's strength is severely overestimated by people just because he managed to perform like Generic R would in two GOP wave years and survived a recall which he was always favored in.

A lot of us who have been around a while have been burned by this race quite a few times (3 times in 4 years, in fact!) so it makes sense that we'd be more cautious. The polling average doesn't really tell the whole story here. I couldn't tell you how many times the overconfident Dems insisted that we'd have Gov. Barrett and Gov. Burke, sometimes even backed up by favorable polling.

This 1000x times. I can't count how many times Walker was declared DOA on here over the years. I've been monitoring this forum since '09, and that's a common thread.