Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[mcmikk]

Don't overreact to this poll, guys. It's August. Polling will become more important in, like, October. For now, I'm going to keep looking at fundamentals, which is that Walker is an R running a D wave year in a polarized swing state. All signs point to liberals in WI being energized, and Walker's fandom in WOW isn't going to be enough to save him. He also has no President Boogeyman to run against, and Walker's strategy has always been to take the low road.

Signs all point to Walker losing, but don't take anything for granted yet. He's not Safe bc muh 3 times in 4 years, but it's not Titanium D bc muh Blue Wave. Tossup is a good ranking for this race.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Don't overreact to this poll, guys. It's August. Polling will become more important in, like, October. For now, I'm going to keep looking at fundamentals, which is that Walker is an R running a D wave year in a polarized swing state. All signs point to liberals in WI being energized, and Walker's fandom in WOW isn't going to be enough to save him. He also has no President Boogeyman to run against, and Walker's strategy has always been to take the low road.

Signs all point to Walker losing, but don't take anything for granted yet. He's not Safe bc muh 3 times in 4 years, but it's not Titanium D bc muh Blue Wave. Tossup is a good ranking for this race.

You make some valid points. I agree.

To be fair, his MU poll rating did increase from two months ago. Evers and his campaign think this latest MU poll is a good sign of Democratic momentum in the state, so I guess I shouldn't be that worried if he and his team aren't. In fact Evers could be two points in the lead, which is quite likely since this poll is an obvious outlier, given that Walker is  leading 46 percent to Evers’ 44 percent, well within the margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

"Tony Evers clearly has the momentum in the opening days of the general election," said Evers' campaign manager Maggie Gau. "No matter what poll you look at, Tony has eliminated any advantage Walker has had."

Good points!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think that Walker has been able to win in a blue state, just like LePage and Synder did, and just like Shawn Moody who is destined to win the ME governorship, they the GOP is a mainstream party. It's a 50/50 race

[Gass3268]

It has been flooding in Madison since Monday night when it rained like 13 inches in only a couple hours:

https://twitter.com/wxgeoff/status/1031721836516712450

https://twitter.com/isthbel/status/1031901392783458304

The fear now is that there are more storms forecasted for this evening and the dams that control the water flow for the Yahara River, which connects Lake Mendota to Lake Monona and has already flooded badly, are at risk of be compromised and failing, which would be horrific:

https://twitter.com/msommerhauser/status/1032696379389472768

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1032977647683469312

https://twitter.com/CapTimesPhotos/status/1032682130327973888

https://twitter.com/akschaaf/status/1032967896539049987

Governor Walker has already declared a state emergency:

https://twitter.com/GovWalker/status/1032055235693486080

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Walker just found his new campaign prop

It's his Hurricane Sandy moment. Evers is DOA at this point.

[libertpaulian]

Walker just found his new campaign prop

It's his Hurricane Sandy moment. Evers is DOA at this point.

This trolling isn't even funny anymore.

It could be his Hurricane Matthew moment: Enough to bolster him in the polls a bit but not enough to save him in the end.

[Dr. Arch]

Things are not normal, but this is not the kind of thing that would create the sort of impact a hurricane would.

Please stop the insanity. Is WI Gov 2018 the new VA Gov 2017? The takes on this race over the last week have been beyond absurd.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Walker just found his new campaign prop

It's his Hurricane Sandy moment. Evers is DOA at this point.

This trolling isn't even funny anymore.

It could be his Hurricane Matthew moment: Enough to bolster him in the polls a bit but not enough to save him in the end.

Natural disasters tend to boost the in-party unless the response is bungled Katrina- style. I don't see Walker making Dubya's mistake.

[ON Progressive]

Walker just found his new campaign prop

It's his Hurricane Sandy moment. Evers is DOA at this point.

This trolling isn't even funny anymore.

It could be his Hurricane Matthew moment: Enough to bolster him in the polls a bit but not enough to save him in the end.

Natural disasters tend to boost the in-party unless the response is bungled Katrina- style. I don't see Walker making Dubya's mistake.

Hurricane Harvey not making a dent in Trump's approval agrees that natural disasters guarantee a boost for the in-party.

[Devout Centrist]

Walker just found his new campaign prop

It's his Hurricane Sandy moment. Evers is DOA at this point.

This trolling isn't even funny anymore.

It could be his Hurricane Matthew moment: Enough to bolster him in the polls a bit but not enough to save him in the end.

Natural disasters tend to boost the in-party unless the response is bungled Katrina- style. I don't see Walker making Dubya's mistake.

Wait for the aftermath

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1032664484899368966

Walker betrayed by chinese tricksters.

[Zaybay]

The flooding will make no difference.  No one is going to go to the voting booth and go "I would have voted for Evers, but Walker handled that flood really well". If it was a tornado that devastated the state, or a hurricane, then yes, but this is realllllly stretching the boundaries of what influences voters.

[TJ in Oregon]

Tenney dam is in a ~95% Dem ~85% white neighborhood. No one is going to change their vote over this.

[Dr. Arch]

The lakes can shed about 1-1.5 inches a day, but more than that is expected between today and tomorrow, and thunderstorms are in the forecast for most of the next week. It will be interesting to see what happens.

The Wisconsin National Guard was at Tenney Park unloaded mounds of sand. Many Isthmus buildings are lined with sandbags and plastic. We'll see how things develop.

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1032664484899368966

Walker betrayed by chinese tricksters.

lol he wasnt betrayed. The check just cleared and the Chinese dropped the charade.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The flooding is in the most Democratic part of the state where everyone hates Walker, and that's not going to change.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The flooding is in the most Democratic part of the state where everyone hates Walker, and that's not going to change.

Sandy stemmed Obama's bleeding with Socially Conservative Italians in North Jersey.

[CookieDamage]

The flooding is in the most Democratic part of the state where everyone hates Walker, and that's not going to change.

Sandy stemmed Obama's bleeding with Socially Conservative Italians in North Jersey.

All 5 of them?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Honestly, who cares about the conservative-skewed MU poll? F 'em!

And Dane County has gotten bluer in every election cycle and voted for Hillary at a wider margin than Obama. And its voting power increases every year as the population does. It has added 20k residents since 2014 (516k to 536k) when Scott Walker was reelected. It's a Democratic stronghold and always will be because it attracts college-educated transplants from all over the globe!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any updates on the flooding?

[Ebsy]

Walker and Republicans in the legislature bear some responsibility for the flooding, considering that they have slashed wetlands protection around Madison in the recent past, exacerbating already worsening conditions. They should be cashiered and put out the pasture so that Democrats can clean up their mess.

[Dr. Arch]

Any updates on the flooding?

No rain since Friday, which is good, but thunderstorms are in the forecast for next week. We'll see then. Things are quiet.

[MasterJedi]

Walker is trying to buy votes by convincing military vets to come to Wisconsin. They should stay away, once they would come and if he were to win they'd be hung out to dry.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Walker is trying to buy votes by convincing military vets to come to Wisconsin. They should stay away, once they would come and if he were to win they'd be hung out to dry.

The election is only two months away. Very few (if any) are going to have time to move to our state, so there won't be enough conservative veterans to outvote the Dems.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

Walker is trying to buy votes by convincing military vets to come to Wisconsin. They should stay away, once they would come and if he were to win they'd be hung out to dry.

The election is only two months away. Very few (if any) are going to have time to move to our state, so there won't be enough conservative veterans to outvote the Dems.