Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Xing]

Watching Limo and Hofoid cream each other over this poll is golden.

"each other" lol

[Scottholes 2.0]

I recognize that this is an improvement from the last MU poll for Evers, but regardless of what the polls indicate, I honestly think Walker's going to win. He cheated the last three times and WI voters are not smart enough to see right through his schemes. Even Baldwin is getting in an increasingly tougher spot than I thought. The future is getting bleaker for us WI dems. I'll be moving to MN by 2020.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I recognize that this is an improvement from the last poll, but I honestly think Walker's going to win. He cheated the last three times and WI voters are not smart enough to see right through his schemes. Even Baldwin is getting in an increasingly tougher spot than I thought. The future is getting bleaker for us WI dems. I'll be moving to MN by 2020.

They're reaping what they've sown really with the National Dems spitting on places like Wisconsin. Now, the Badger State is under repressive RTW rule and the GOP is showing no sign of letting up anytime soon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a shame, WI can't vote like the rest of the Midwest and vote Democratic, Walker probably gets reelected.

[Gass3268]

Can certain posters stop posting after every other post. Half my screen is currently on ignore.

[2016]

OK, serious autopsy time: How can Dems recover their lost appeal in the Midwest, specifically Wisconsin? Because, the current Nancy Pelosi/DWS/Country Club strategy ain't working...and the results are devastating with Wisconsin workers being subjected to No-Right-to-Bargain.

2016 was a Realignment Election and Democrats still have failed to come to terms with that. Basically from 2016 onwards the upper Midwest will be available for R's the same way VA, NC, GA will be available for D's.

[Politician]

OK, serious autopsy time: How can Dems recover their lost appeal in the Midwest, specifically Wisconsin? Because, the current Nancy Pelosi/DWS/Country Club strategy ain't working...and the results are devastating with Wisconsin workers being subjected to No-Right-to-Bargain.

2016 was a Realignment Election and Democrats still have failed to come to terms with that. Basically from 2016 onwards the upper Midwest will be available for R's the same way VA, NC, GA will be available for D's.

A 0.5 point win is not a "realignment"

[Wiz in Wis]

OK, serious autopsy time: How can Dems recover their lost appeal in the Midwest, specifically Wisconsin? Because, the current Nancy Pelosi/DWS/Country Club strategy ain't working...and the results are devastating with Wisconsin workers being subjected to No-Right-to-Bargain.

2016 was a Realignment Election and Democrats still have failed to come to terms with that. Basically from 2016 onwards the upper Midwest will be available for R's the same way VA, NC, GA will be available for D's.

A 0.5 point win is not a "realignment"

Romney got more votes in Wisconsin... Dubya got nearly 100k more than Trump. I mean... guys, Hillary didn't campaign here and was a terrible candidate. Don't get too high on your own supply.

[libertpaulian]

OK, serious autopsy time: How can Dems recover their lost appeal in the Midwest, specifically Wisconsin? Because, the current Nancy Pelosi/DWS/Country Club strategy ain't working...and the results are devastating with Wisconsin workers being subjected to No-Right-to-Bargain.

2016 was a Realignment Election and Democrats still have failed to come to terms with that. Basically from 2016 onwards the upper Midwest will be available for R's the same way VA, NC, GA will be available for D's.

A 0.5 point win is not a "realignment"

Yeah, realigners don't tend to lose the popular vote.

[2016]

OK, serious autopsy time: How can Dems recover their lost appeal in the Midwest, specifically Wisconsin? Because, the current Nancy Pelosi/DWS/Country Club strategy ain't working...and the results are devastating with Wisconsin workers being subjected to No-Right-to-Bargain.

2016 was a Realignment Election and Democrats still have failed to come to terms with that. Basically from 2016 onwards the upper Midwest will be available for R's the same way VA, NC, GA will be available for D's.

Trump won Ohio by 8, Iowa by an even wider margin. That's a Realignment for me. WI is just at the beginning of it the same way VA was in 2006 when Webb narrowly defeated Allen.

Bottom Line: Cities like Milwaukee and Detroit are shrinking and I guarantee you that D's won't get a 300-350K Plurality out of Detroit anytime soon. That was their backbone winning these States but the Midwest & Cities there are shrinking.

[Zaybay]

OK, serious autopsy time: How can Dems recover their lost appeal in the Midwest, specifically Wisconsin? Because, the current Nancy Pelosi/DWS/Country Club strategy ain't working...and the results are devastating with Wisconsin workers being subjected to No-Right-to-Bargain.

2016 was a Realignment Election and Democrats still have failed to come to terms with that. Basically from 2016 onwards the upper Midwest will be available for R's the same way VA, NC, GA will be available for D's.

Trump won Ohio by 8, Iowa by an even wider margin. That's a Realignment for me. WI is just at the beginning of it the same way VA was in 2006 when Webb narrowly defeated Allen.

Bottom Line: Cities like Milwaukee and Detroit are shrinking and I guarantee you that D's won't get a 300-350K Plurality out of Detroit anytime soon. That was their backbone winning these States but the Midwest & Cities there are shrinking.
A 0.5 point win is not a "realignment"

Obama won IN by 1 so he must be a realigner too.

[libertpaulian]

A tie after all the ordeals Walker had faced in his two terms? He's cruising to the end, as the ad campaigns will sink Evers. Likely R

lol, you can stop with the troll job now.

After all the complacent Dems in this forum assuming that a silly Supreme Court race means anything in the grand scheme of things? Perhaps, they are the trolls, not me. Fact of the matter is, Dems in this state committed seppuku by only caring about the ghettoes of Milwaukee and students in Madison.

Yeah, that's why Dems have been improving in the rural and small town areas for the state supreme court and special elections, right?

Don't feed the concern troll. He'd argue that his wet dream Scotty is safe even if he were down by 10 in every poll. It's been kinda funny seeing LimoLiberal post 4 or 5 times in the other Wisconsin thread, crying for attention, while no one is responding to him. Let's keep it that way, since LimoLiberal and hofoid are essentially the same person.

I wouldn't be surprised if hoifoid was Limo's sock puppet (or vice versa).

[2016]

Obama winning IN in 2008 was a total fluke.

You want to compare Braun, Hawley to Mourdock, Akin.

Candidates matter and Republicans had to find out the hard way when it came to the Senate in 2010, 2012 and 2017 with Moore in AL.

[Virginiá]

2016: If the people you are calling were actual trolls, or were otherwise engaging in trollish behavior, it would be one thing, but you're just labeling people who disagree with you as trolls. That is not acceptable here. Keep the discussion civil.

[2016]

2016: If the people you are calling were actual trolls, or were otherwise engaging in trollish behavior, it would be one thing, but you're just labeling people who disagree with you as trolls. That is not acceptable here. Keep the discussion civil.

I will do that but some people are trying to get under my skin.

[GeorgiaModerate]

2016: If the people you are calling were actual trolls, or were otherwise engaging in trollish behavior, it would be one thing, but you're just labeling people who disagree with you as trolls. That is not acceptable here. Keep the discussion civil.

I will do that but some people are trying to get under my skin.

This is intended as a well-meaning suggestion and not a slam, but the reason for that is probably that some (not all) of your posts seem to have a truculent and hostile tone.  It's understandable that they could provoke that kind of reaction.

[Gass3268]

Watch this space tonight. I've been working on some PVI maps that could give us some clues on what to be on the look for on election night.

[Scottholes 2.0]

When will other polls be released? Marquette surveyed 45 percent Republicans and 43 percent Democrats. Doesn't seem that reliable, but, at the same time, scary.

[Blair]

As was said earlier WI is a polarised state; we’re going to see polling that will go either way. It’s august; don’t buy into every poll, or claim that it’s a sign of some grand narrative. Elections are complicated etc

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am a believer in upsets and Walker is the type to win in an upset.

[Former Kentuckian]

As was said earlier WI is a polarised state; we’re going to see polling that will go either way. It’s august; don’t buy into every poll, or claim that it’s a sign of some grand narrative. Elections are complicated etc

Don't be so rational

(jk)

[NOVA Green]

Watch this space tonight. I've been working on some PVI maps that could give us some clues on what to be on the look for on election night.

ooooh---- looking forward to this!!!!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A lot these states are gonna split their vote for Senate and Governor, especially small states like RI,CT,NM, MD and even ME, that have had consistent GOP rule against tax increases. Where the big industrialized states like IL,MI,CA and NY, big union states, don't mind tax increases.

Baldwin and Walker can be elected at the same time, too.

[Gass3268]

Watch this space tonight. I've been working on some PVI maps that could give us some clues on what to be on the look for on election night.

ooooh---- looking forward to this!!!!!

Not going to happen tonight as some other things came up, but I hope to have something posted tomorrow.

[redjohn]

This race is going to be made in the final two months, so I'll be very interested to see whether Evers campaigns on his vision for Wisconsin or merely against Scott Walker. The latter will result in a likely loss.

As I said during the primary to people who believed Evers was the best candidate against Walker (and who would likely beat him), Evers is not well known to most Wisconsinites. That's why this period right now is so important; if he's defined by this teacher porn non-scandal, it's over. Democratic donors should be blanketing the state with ads and information on Evers's pro-education background and plan. If Democrats can get in front of Evers and define him as a pro-rural Wisconsin education candidate, things will look better in November. If Evers goes on the attack against Walker without creating a positive name for himself, this (again) is likely over. Tossup.