Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Dr. Arch]

Snip

Really like her, but not sure how she'd do against Walker (or as Governor).

I read that she gave a really good speech last night.

Link?

[Gass3268]

Snip

Really like her, but not sure how she'd do against Walker (or as Governor).

I read that she gave a really good speech last night.

Link?

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1002713406783311873

[Drew]

Kelda Roys wins the Wispolitcs Democratic Party Convention Straw Poll

Results:

Ballots cast: 800

– Governor

Total votes: 789

Kelda Roys: 184
Mahlon Mitchell: 93
Tony Evers: 91
Andy Gronik: 89
Dana Wachs: 89
Kathleen Vinehout: 83
Mike McCabe: 81
Matt Flynn: 71
Josh Pade: 7
Paul Soglin: 1 (lol)

— Lieutenant Governor

Total votes: 763

Mandela Barnes: 617
Kurt Kober: 146

— Secretary of State

Total votes: 728

Doug La Follette: 385
Arvina Marie Martin: 343

— State Treasurer

Total votes: 704

Sarah Godlewski: 530
Cynthia Kaump: 109
Dawn Marie Sass: 65

I was there.  Roys also won the straw poll at the 2nd CD convention a couple months ago, wasn’t sure if she’d be able to replicate it statewide.  I voted Wachs, but Roys would have been my 2nd choice.  Voted for the winners of the other races.  Surprised at how close SOS was.  Pade beat Soglin?!

The gov candidates all spoke last night.  I’d say Roys, Evers, and McCabe had the most enthusiastic crowd reactions as they walked out.  Vinehout and Mitchell too.  I heard some boos with Flynn due to his baggage.  Gronik was still trying to talk as they cut the mic and introduced the next speaker.  They only had 5 min each to speak.  However, candidates for other offices (Congress, AG, WI leg members) didn’t seem to have time limits and spoke much longer.  Pete Buttigieg capped it off with the keynote.

[Gass3268]

I posted something along these lines a while ago, but a NARAL apparatchik like Roys edging so far over union favorite Mitchell in the straw vote (how it relates to the actual primary, who knows) is nothing short of monumental in an institution like the Wisconsin Democratic Party.

I'm growing more and more convinced that Evers - who I don't find particularly objectionable, for what it's worth - will not be the nominee.

There is also so much energy, deservedly, behind female candidates this cycle. Not shocking that Roys could end up doing really well.

[Oryxslayer]

Is this a realistic hypothetical Election map, Wisconsinites? A Generic Dems wins by 2%

No. Northern Central Wisconsin should be redder, and central Wisconsin could be bluer. Racine is a big question mark, and places like Brown could end up surprising us.

How about this?

That's pretty good. Flip Marathon and put Adams, Juneau, and Racine in absolutely tossup territory and flip Marquette, and we have a fair approximation of what might happen.

I'm going to add that St. Clair seems to have undergone a massive shift since Trump, voting just a little right of the results in both mid-term contests it has gone to the polls. Under a 2% generic D win I doubt it flips, but maybe a 3-4% one.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Serious own-goal if this holds in the primary. Tony Evers has a 100% chance of winning the general if he makes it. The others lack that level of certainty.

[Jeppe]

Serious own-goal if this holds in the primary. Tony Evers has a 100% chance of winning the general if he makes it. The others lack that level of certainty.

It seems like whenever Democrats nominate a woman, it’s an own-goal, but it’s not the case when Dems nominate flawed male candidates like Scott Wallace.

[Oryxslayer]

Serious own-goal if this holds in the primary. Tony Evers has a 100% chance of winning the general if he makes it. The others lack that level of certainty.

Rule one of conventions in 2018 - they are an extreme unrepresentative sample of the ideology of the electorate. Remember, Romney lost his convention, but will probably win the primary by 70%.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Serious own-goal if this holds in the primary. Tony Evers has a 100% chance of winning the general if he makes it. The others lack that level of certainty.

It seems like whenever Democrats nominate a woman, it’s an own-goal, but it’s not the case when Dems nominate flawed male candidates like Scott Wallace.

In some cases, there is an objectively strongest candidate in the Democratic field. In Wisconsin, it happened to be Tony Evers. In Minnesota, it is Tim Walz. It is not always going to be a male candidate who is the strongest, but it is the case in both MN-Gov and WI-Gov.

[Politician]

Serious own-goal if this holds in the primary. Tony Evers has a 100% chance of winning the general if he makes it. The others lack that level of certainty.

Rule one of conventions in 2018 - they are an extreme unrepresentative sample of the ideology of the electorate. Remember, Romney lost his convention, but will probably win the primary by 70%.

Exactly. Mostly radicals and ideologues show up at conventions. Not representative of the primary electorate at all.

Also, Wisconsin isn't Safe D. It's Lean D, the Democrats have an edge but Walker could easily win.

[Jeppe]

Serious own-goal if this holds in the primary. Tony Evers has a 100% chance of winning the general if he makes it. The others lack that level of certainty.

It seems like whenever Democrats nominate a woman, it’s an own-goal, but it’s not the case when Dems nominate flawed male candidates like Scott Wallace.

In some cases, there is an objectively strongest candidate in the Democratic field. In Wisconsin, it happened to be Tony Evers. In Minnesota, it is Tim Walz. It is not always going to be a male candidate who is the strongest, but it is the case in both MN-Gov and WI-Gov.

But people only vocally complain when the female candidate wins. There were countless threads about Kara Eastman being a worse candidate than Ashford, but not a hint of disappointment when Scott Wallace, a carpetbagging BDS donor from South Africa spent $2 million of his own money and beat  out a local Navy veteran for the Democratic endorsement in PA-01, even though she would’ve had a much easier time beating Fitzpatrick.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Serious own-goal if this holds in the primary. Tony Evers has a 100% chance of winning the general if he makes it. The others lack that level of certainty.

Rule one of conventions in 2018 - they are an extreme unrepresentative sample of the ideology of the electorate. Remember, Romney lost his convention, but will probably win the primary by 70%.

Exactly. Mostly radicals and ideologues show up at conventions. Not representative of the primary electorate at all.

Does someone have to be specifically invited to show up at a convention?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Serious own-goal if this holds in the primary. Tony Evers has a 100% chance of winning the general if he makes it. The others lack that level of certainty.

It seems like whenever Democrats nominate a woman, it’s an own-goal, but it’s not the case when Dems nominate flawed male candidates like Scott Wallace.

In some cases, there is an objectively strongest candidate in the Democratic field. In Wisconsin, it happened to be Tony Evers. In Minnesota, it is Tim Walz. It is not always going to be a male candidate who is the strongest, but it is the case in both MN-Gov and WI-Gov.

But people only vocally complain when the female candidate wins. There were countless threads about Kara Eastman being a worse candidate than Ashford, but not a hint of disappointment when Scott Wallace, a carpetbagging BDS donor from South Africa spent $2 million of his own money and beat  out a local Navy veteran for the Democratic endorsement in PA-01, even though she would’ve had a much easier time beating Fitzpatrick.

Scott Wallace didn’t actually donate to BDS and is a far stronger candidate than the random person he beat in the primary.  Not sure why Wallace’s place of birth matters, but sure, let’s toss xenophobia into the mix.  No one complained when Jim Gray lost, btw.

[kyc0705]

Serious own-goal if this holds in the primary. Tony Evers has a 100% chance of winning the general if he makes it. The others lack that level of certainty.

Rule one of conventions in 2018 - they are an extreme unrepresentative sample of the ideology of the electorate. Remember, Romney lost his convention, but will probably win the primary by 70%.

Exactly. Mostly radicals and ideologues show up at conventions. Not representative of the primary electorate at all.

Does someone have to be specifically invited to show up at a convention?

I feel like they just naturally attract the hardline obsessives. Who the hell else would voluntarily spend their Saturday at a [checks notes] state political convention?

[Gass3268]

I posted something along these lines a while ago, but a NARAL apparatchik like Roys edging so far over union favorite Mitchell in the straw vote (how it relates to the actual primary, who knows) is nothing short of monumental in an institution like the Wisconsin Democratic Party.

I'm growing more and more convinced that Evers - who I don't find particularly objectionable, for what it's worth - will not be the nominee.

There is also so much energy, deservedly, behind female candidates this cycle. Not shocking that Roys could end up doing really well.

Who do you think emerges from the primary at this point in time?

I have no idea. The lack of polling this cycle across the country has been awful. Hopefully we get a Marquette Poll here soon. If I had to guess I still think that Evers has to be the favorite having been a statewide figure for such a long time. Yet I don't think you can discount Mitchell and now Roys. It seems like Vinehout has fizzled out due to her gun positions, Wachs has never gained traction, and Soglin kinda went of into la la land (he's now calling a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporter a Putin stooge).

[mcmikk]

Though I'd prefer Evers, this is far from an "own-goal". These straw polls are usually unrepresentative of the primary electorate as a whole, in which Evers still has a decent lead. But even if Roys ends up winning the nomination, she'd probably beat Walker just the same, as would most of the Democratic field. However, she would probably do worse in rural areas and small towns than Evers would, and she doesn't have a record of winning statewide, hence why I prefer Evers.

[mcmikk]

Isn't Roys a loony toon who is a perennial candidate

No, not really. She's a fairly competent and well-organized resistance mommy from what I'm seeing. She's a former State Rep, and I think she ran in WI-01 D primary against Pocan in 2012.

[KingSweden]

Evers will win but I think Roys can leverage this into future general election opportunities

[mcmikk]

Isn't Roys a loony toon who is a perennial candidate

No, not really. She's a fairly competent and well-organized resistance mommy from what I'm seeing. She's a former State Rep, and I think she ran in WI-01 D primary against Pocan in 2012.

That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen

True, lol. I think she could still win a general election though. She would do pretty well in Dane County(full of white #resistance types) and as long as she doesn't totally implode in rural areas she can beat Scott Walker with that alone.

[Gass3268]

Isn't Roys a loony toon who is a perennial candidate

No, not really. She's a fairly competent and well-organized resistance mommy from what I'm seeing. She's a former State Rep, and I think she ran in WI-01 D primary against Pocan in 2012.

Her issue was that she was losing in that race against Pocan in 2012 (who had all the institutional support, other than Emily's List), ran really bad negative ad that backfired and ended up losing bad (72-22!!!).

Personally I think after her performance this weekend and some of the polling rumors that we have, I'd have say that the top tier is Evers, Mitchell and Roys. They all have their positives and negatives. I think they could all beat Walker, but everyone of them could lose as well. 

[Gass3268]

This isn't going to go over well...

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1003657761543073792

[mcmikk]

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1003728493279051776

[KingSweden]

This isn't going to go over well...

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1003657761543073792

To their credit Marquette vehemently protested this use of their polling

[Gass3268]

MJS: Village of Mount Pleasant declares Foxconn area as blighted, may use eminent domain to take properties

[mcmikk]

Lol, Walker is criticizing Evers for saying "goddamn" in his convention speech. This guy really is a slimeball who will say and do anything to get reelected.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2018/06/04/scott-walker-calls-opponent-pathetic-saying-he-goddamn-sick-and-tired-walker-policies/668865002/