Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wiz in Wis]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

[Gass3268]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

Even still, we don't know what %'s Walker will get from WOW considering what Trump got and what poling has suggested.

[ElectionsGuy]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

I asked the poll workers in my precinct how turnout was today and they said "VERY good". I'm more interested to see if Dems are peeling off some voters in WOW. Evers needs to keep Walker under 70 in Waukesha to win.

[Gass3268]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

I asked the poll workers in my precinct how turnout was today and they said "VERY good". I'm more interested to see if Dems are peeling off some voters in WOW. Evers needs to keep Walker under 70 in Waukesha to win.

Yup, they need to keep Walker in the low 60's in Ozaukee, high 60's in Waukesha and low 70's in Washington. Vukmir will probably underperform Walker in all and it wouldn't shock me if she preforms especially poorly in Ozaukee. I can see that as a place where once Republican women, who might still vote for Walker, would vote for Baldwin to keep Trump in check.

[ElectionsGuy]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

I asked the poll workers in my precinct how turnout was today and they said "VERY good". I'm more interested to see if Dems are peeling off some voters in WOW. Evers needs to keep Walker under 70 in Waukesha to win.

Yup, they need to keep Walker in the low 60's in Ozaukee, high 60's in Waukesha and low 70's in Washington. Vukmir will probably underperform Walker in all and it wouldn't shock me if she preforms especially poorly in Ozaukee. I can see that as a place where once Republican women, who might still vote for Walker, would vote for Baldwin to keep Trump in check.

In theory, Vukmir should do well in these areas since that's where she's from, but with the way she has run I don't think she'll do too good. I'm thinking McCain numbers for her there.

[Gass3268]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

I asked the poll workers in my precinct how turnout was today and they said "VERY good". I'm more interested to see if Dems are peeling off some voters in WOW. Evers needs to keep Walker under 70 in Waukesha to win.

Yup, they need to keep Walker in the low 60's in Ozaukee, high 60's in Waukesha and low 70's in Washington. Vukmir will probably underperform Walker in all and it wouldn't shock me if she preforms especially poorly in Ozaukee. I can see that as a place where once Republican women, who might still vote for Walker, would vote for Baldwin to keep Trump in check.

In theory, Vukmir should do well in these areas since that's where she's from, but with the way she has run I don't think she'll do too good. I'm thinking McCain numbers for her there.

Agreed, I think she went overboard trying to get folks who supported Nicholson and really forfetied the center of the field to Baldwin. Unlike Walker, who as always, runs to the center during this campaigns.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

I asked the poll workers in my precinct how turnout was today and they said "VERY good". I'm more interested to see if Dems are peeling off some voters in WOW. Evers needs to keep Walker under 70 in Waukesha to win.

Hmm, very good turnout in Waukesha...where have we seen this before. Granted, Dane is doing fine so far...so it's all down to the swingy rurals.

[Scottholes 2.0]

The WOW counties might surprise us. With the way Dems are being projected to make gains in the suburbs or win suburban districts, I would not be surprised if Dems make solid gains in WOW.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

I asked the poll workers in my precinct how turnout was today and they said "VERY good". I'm more interested to see if Dems are peeling off some voters in WOW. Evers needs to keep Walker under 70 in Waukesha to win.

Yup, they need to keep Walker in the low 60's in Ozaukee, high 60's in Waukesha and low 70's in Washington. Vukmir will probably underperform Walker in all and it wouldn't shock me if she preforms especially poorly in Ozaukee. I can see that as a place where once Republican women, who might still vote for Walker, would vote for Baldwin to keep Trump in check.

If the polling has been accurate, Evers will most likely do remarkably well among college-educated white women, so there may not be too much of a contrast between Evers and Baldwin's performance in that regard.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The WOW counties might surprise us. With the way Dems are being projected to make gains in the suburbs or win suburban districts, I would not be surprised if Dems make solid gains in WOW.

Only to be matched by erosion in the Driftless? Trends go both ways. 

[ElectionsGuy]

The WOW counties might surprise us. With the way Dems are being projected to make gains in the suburbs or win suburban districts, I would not be surprised if Dems make solid gains in WOW.

Only to be matched by erosion in the Driftless? Trends go both ways. 

I think if we see Republican trends, it'll be in the Northwoods and not in the SW.

[Dr. Arch]

2016-level turnout in Dane county so far. It might even surpass 2016.

[Scottholes 2.0]

2016-level turnout in Dane county so far. It might even surpass 2016.

Seriously? Wow!

[Dr. Arch]

2016-level turnout in Dane county so far. It might even surpass 2016.

Seriously? Wow!

Straight from the source:

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1059915622811926529

[Scottholes 2.0]

Tammy Baldwin has just been declared the winner.

[Dr. Arch]

Tammy Baldwin has just been declared the winner.

Yeah, that's good. Walker is doing well in Waukesha (as expected). We need to see western and northern WI.

[Dr. Arch]

Walker's numbers collapsed in Waukesha, but he's doing well in the eastern end. We still need to watch this one.

[MasterJedi]

Exit polls supposedly say Evers should win but as always, they’re exit polls.

[Dr. Arch]

Western WI is coming in strong for Evers.

[MasterJedi]

Milwaukee Common Council open seat filled by a liberal. Also replaces one anti-streetcar vote for a likely pro-streetcar vote.

Milwaukee County supporting rec pot, 93% in with 70% support.

[Wiz in Wis]

Kenosha is almost all in, and Evers winning by 7%... that's a really bad sign for Walker. Evers has 100k margin in MKE.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Kenosha is almost all in, and Evers winning by 7%... that's a really bad sign for Walker. Evers has 100k margin in MKE.

I'm still waiting on the rurals.

[Dr. Arch]

What Evers needs right now is damage control, and Dane will clean up the rest. It's looking like Evers is in a better position.

[MasterJedi]

How is the assembly and senate looking?

[Wiz in Wis]

How is the assembly and senate looking?

Not expecting big changes, but a lot of key seats out for now.