Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Early vote numbers compared to 2016 looking fantastic for the GOP, as main GOP counties of Ozaukee and Waukesha are crushing Dane and Milwaukee in turnout. 

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

For those of you who have hofoid on ignore, here are some of the early vote numbers as they compare to 2016. The WOW counties are about where you'd expect them to be, other than Washington looking a bit low. Dane County is smidge lower than I would like, but Madison is already at 4x where they were it was at in 2014 and I don't doubt that turnout will be big there tomorrow. To me the main story is Milwaukee County being compareable to Waukesha County. Milwaukee County dropoffs from Presidential elections to off year elections are well documented, if this holds into tomorrow, that could change and be crucial

[Scottholes 2.0]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

For those of you who have hofoid on ignore, here are some of the early vote numbers as they compare to 2016. The WOW counties are about where you'd expect them to be, other than Washington looking a bit low. Dane County is smidge lower than I would like, but Madison is already at 4x where they were it was at in 2014 and I don't doubt that turnout will be big there tomorrow. To me the main story is Milwaukee County being compareable to Waukesha County. Milwaukee County dropoffs from Presidential elections to off year elections are well documented, if this holds into tomorrow, that could change and be crucial

Hofoid is simply ridiculous. I somehow just noticed the ignore option yesterday. I'm expecting near presidential-level turnout for Dane. Milwaukee County is my top concern.

But God, I am so nervous about tommorow's election! I am hoping and praying that 8 years of Wississippi will actually over. I've watched my unionized family members suffer long enough under Walker.

[Aurelio21]

Andy Suchorski not only published relative EV. He also estimated the final vote based on EV 2016. Accidently, this omits a 48 to 45 % D to R ratio.

[Xing]

I'll be hoping to hear that turnout is high in Milwaukee and Dane tomorrow. If this really is a Democratic wave year, Walker shouldn't be winning.

[redjohn]

I've been pretty bearish on Evers's chances for this entire cycle, and I thought for a long time that Walker had the slight upper hand, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I'm very confident Evers wins today. There is no world in which Baldwin wins by the margin she will win by today and Walker still slides by. Anecdotally, there is not a single voter in my family or friend group who voted for the Democrat in 2014 and plans on switching their vote for Walker this election. There are, however, several family members who voted for Walker in 2014 and will be voting for Evers today. I've heard the same story from friends across the state.

Walker's Presidential run, fatigue surrounding his leadership, Trump's unpopularity, and general disapproval of current leadership will likely be enough to hold Walker back from the finish line this time. 

is there a chance Walker slides by? Sure. But it's more likely that Evers wins by over five points than Walker winning by one.

[Dr. Arch]

#60 at my polling place at 8:00 in the morning! There were people steadily coming in as I voted too. Turnout is through the roof in my precinct in Madison.

[Gass3268]

If this news would have broke last week...

https://twitter.com/paulwsj/status/1059794377051201543

[Gass3268]

#60 at my polling place at 8:00 in the morning! There were people steadily coming in as I voted too. Turnout is through the roof in my precinct in Madison.

My brother's fiancée voted in a downtown Madison, Wisconsin precinct (off-campus student housing) at 7:05. She was already voter #143.

[Wiz in Wis]

Voter #171 in Reedsburg precinct 4 at 7:45am. All voters in Reedsburg vote at City Hall, and the room was PACKED. The line was at least 30-40 long and all 20 voting booths were full. At least 25 people entered while I waited.

We have a competitive Assembly race, State Senate race, and of course the statewides. First time I've voted there in a general but man... it was hopping.

[Gass3268]

Voter #171 in Reedsburg precinct 4 at 7:45am. All voters in Reedsburg vote at City Hall, and the room was PACKED. The line was at least 30-40 long and all 20 voting booths were full. At least 25 people entered while I waited.

We have a competitive Assembly race, State Senate race, and of course the statewides. First time I've voted there in a general but man... it was hopping.

We need Reedsburg to go back to Obama margins for Dems to have a chance at picking up the AD and the SD!

[Wiz in Wis]

Voter #171 in Reedsburg precinct 4 at 7:45am. All voters in Reedsburg vote at City Hall, and the room was PACKED. The line was at least 30-40 long and all 20 voting booths were full. At least 25 people entered while I waited.

We have a competitive Assembly race, State Senate race, and of course the statewides. First time I've voted there in a general but man... it was hopping.

We need Reedsburg to go back to Obama margins for Dems to have a chance at picking up the AD and the SD!

I did my part

[Wiz in Wis]

Anecdotes! Get your red hot anecdotes here!

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/it-s-gone-like-crazy-madison-mid-day-voter-turnout/article_c28d46df-62c2-5a1d-be90-fc345ca8f194.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

[Gass3268]

Anecdotes! Get your red hot anecdotes here!

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/it-s-gone-like-crazy-madison-mid-day-voter-turnout/article_c28d46df-62c2-5a1d-be90-fc345ca8f194.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

Dane County is voting at 2016 levels, about 7-10 points better than 2014. The City of Madison is voting 4 points better than 2016. This is comparing turnout in both years at 11 am.

[Dr. Arch]

Anecdotes! Get your red hot anecdotes here!

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/it-s-gone-like-crazy-madison-mid-day-voter-turnout/article_c28d46df-62c2-5a1d-be90-fc345ca8f194.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

Dane County is voting at 2016 levels, about 7-10 points better than 2014. The City of Madison is voting 4 points better than 2016. This is comparing turnout in both years at 11 am.

Yep!

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1059889404188221441

[Gass3268]

Anecdotes! Get your red hot anecdotes here!

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/it-s-gone-like-crazy-madison-mid-day-voter-turnout/article_c28d46df-62c2-5a1d-be90-fc345ca8f194.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

Dane County is voting at 2016 levels, about 7-10 points better than 2014. The City of Madison is voting 4 points better than 2016. This is comparing turnout in both years at 11 am.

Yep!

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1059889404188221441

You want my guess? This is happening all over the state.

[Dr. Arch]

Anecdotes! Get your red hot anecdotes here!

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/it-s-gone-like-crazy-madison-mid-day-voter-turnout/article_c28d46df-62c2-5a1d-be90-fc345ca8f194.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

Dane County is voting at 2016 levels, about 7-10 points better than 2014. The City of Madison is voting 4 points better than 2016. This is comparing turnout in both years at 11 am.

Yep!

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1059889404188221441

You want my guess? This is happening all over the state.

Possibly, but the electorate is going to look different, both in weight and share. If WI votes with similar turnout to 2012, instead of the drop off in D voters like it happened in 2016, we know what's going to happen.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I wish there were good, analysis-friendly anecdotes from the WOW counties, but nothing of any worth at the moment.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Turnout in Dane County is now over 55 percent!

[Gass3268]

Turnout in Dane County is now over 55 percent!

Source?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Turnout in Dane County is now over 55 percent!

Source?

It's actually 50 percent as of 2 P.M.

https://twitter.com/HopeKirwan/status/1059906318331531274

[Dr. Arch]

Turnout in Dane County is now over 55 percent!

Source?

It's actually 50 percent as of 2 P.M.

https://twitter.com/HopeKirwan/status/1059906318331531274

Holy moly

[Gass3268]

Turnout in Dane County is now over 55 percent!

Source?

It's actually 50 percent as of 2 P.M.

https://twitter.com/HopeKirwan/status/1059906318331531274

Holy moly

I just saw that Madison as already surpassed 2014.

[MasterJedi]

Walker is all sorts of finished

We can only hope!

[The Dowager Mod]

Walker is all sorts of finished

I hope so.