Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

My prediction was only a percentage point off. I'd have to give the edge to Walker, though. A lot of the rogue GOPers/NeverTrumpers are coming home and it won't even be this close, honestly. 

[LimoLiberal]

Wait Walker might win?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Wait Walker might win?

It's not even a might at this point. This is brutal for the Dems...for this to happen at the height of Pittsburgh/Bombing mania.   

[Galaxie]

Eternal Gov. Walker, the Terry Branstad of our times

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Eternal Gov. Walker, the Terry Branstad of our times

Yep, I've been saying this since I've started on this forum. The fact that I've been mocked endlessly for it honestly annoys me to no end. It's gonna take a wave much bigger than '06 to knock him off.

[libertpaulian]

Were they using 2014 demographics again?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Were they using 2014 demographics again?

They weight for education...to my knowledge, the only one polling Wisconsin that does.

[Wiz in Wis]

Were they using 2014 demographics again?

They weight for education...to my knowledge, the only one polling Wisconsin that does.

The LV screen is pretty tight, with only "certain to vote" voters getting into the LV pool.

[Dr. Arch]

Eternal Gov. Walker, the Terry Branstad of our times

 

[Ronnie]

Pretty wild that some people are mourning the loss of Evers in response to a poll that doesn't have Walker ahead.  Marquette doesn't even have a perfect track record.  Just relax, guys.

[Gass3268]

Were they using 2014 demographics again?

They weight for education...to my knowledge, the only one polling Wisconsin that does.

The LV screen is pretty tight, with only "certain to vote" voters getting into the LV pool.

There non-white sample is way too Republican too.

[Gass3268]

Democrats have the enthusiasm:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1057697866527969281

I actually feel pretty good about this poll all things considered.

[Dr. Arch]

Northamitis striking again I see.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Wisconsin deserves a dark fate if Walker is re-elected.

[Xing]

This is a classic case of Democrats putting their expectations high. This race has been close all year, and a tie is hardly surprising, nor does it mean that Walker is inevitable, like our resident stable genius is saying. It means that it'll come down to undecideds and turnout. Gun to my head, Evers narrowly wins, due to undecideds breaking in his favor, but only by 1-2%. If Walker winning means Trump is guaranteed to win Wisconsin in 2020, ask President Hillary Clinton about her margin of victory in Pennsylvania.

[Galaxie]

Eternal Gov. Walker, the Terry Branstad of our times

 

Don't get me wrong, I still think Evers is favored

[Virginiá]

Democrats need to fight back with an aggressive, well-funded campaign of cloud seeding over the WOW counties. Make it rain bigly!

[MT Treasurer]

If Walker winning means Trump is guaranteed to win Wisconsin in 2020, ask President Hillary Clinton about her margin of victory in Pennsylvania.

No, but the fact that Democrats haven’t put this race away in what seems to be a massive Democratic wave year even bigger than 2006 is certainly interesting, especially given how well they are doing in IA/OH/WI/MI/PA/FL.

[Thomas D]

This poll had Walker at +7 in 2014.   Which was slightly better then he did.

[libertpaulian]

This poll had Walker at +7 int 2014.   Which was slightly better then he did.

SHHHHHHHHHHHH, don't tell hofoid.

[Gass3268]

Here is a great article from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel doing a region by region break down of the Marquette polling:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Article here.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Pretty wild that some people are mourning the loss of Evers in response to a poll that doesn't have Walker ahead.  Marquette doesn't even have a perfect track record.  Just relax, guys.

Thank you!

[Gass3268]

[Gass3268]

Okay, so this isn't quite as alarming as it sounded to me. Good.

The solution to this would be to have a national voter registry that keeps track when you move to a different state, but of course Americans don't want that because something something BIG GUVMENT!!

To follow up on this:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1058034844574367744

That's a big number, but it only turns out to be a 4% reduction in 4 years. Not horrendous, especially considering you can register at the polls in Wisconsin.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Such a liar!

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/01/scott-walker-tony-evers-hit-road-search-votes-tight-race-wisconsin-governor/1838099002/