Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Xing]

Democrats were overconfident in 2012 and 2014 about their chances of beating Walker, especially given the kind of year that 2014 was, but at least this year, they have polling to point to. While polling doesn't suggest that Walker is DOA, it does suggest that he's more likely to lose than not, and Democrats have reason to be cautiously optimistic here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democrats were overconfident in 2012 and 2014 about their chances of beating Walker, especially given the kind of year that 2014 was, but at least this year, they have polling to point to. While polling doesn't suggest that Walker is DOA, it does suggest that he's more likely to lose than not, and Democrats have reason to be cautiously optimistic here.

This.

[Scottholes 2.0]

These videos give me hope:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgyGiccYeA4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w127yuKDeqY

I guess Wisconsin voters are more informed than I thought! Walker fatigue is real!

[Dr. Arch]

These videos give me hope:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgyGiccYeA4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w127yuKDeqY

I guess Wisconsin voters are more informed than I thought! Walker fatigue is real!

Have you seen the Madison area? It's riddled with giant "VOTE" posters and lawn signs everywhere. It's far beyond anything I saw in 2016. My guess is that we'll overperform Dallet's raw numbers and relative turnout.

[Scottholes 2.0]

These videos give me hope:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgyGiccYeA4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w127yuKDeqY

I guess Wisconsin voters are more informed than I thought! Walker fatigue is real!

Have you seen the Madison area? It's riddled with giant "VOTE" posters and lawn signs everywhere. It's far beyond anything I saw in 2016. My guess is that we'll overperform Dallet's raw numbers and relative turnout.

Yes, I have! Even in Milwaukee! I'm expecting near presidential-level turnout in Dane County and slightly higher turnout in Milwaukee. Dane residents are very elastic this time around! Even if another poll shows Walker ahead, the political mood in this state right now just screams "blue wave." More than 350k absentee ballots have been sent in WI, which is very impressive.

[Gass3268]

Good chunk of change for Evers for the homestretch:

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1056898140144627712

[MasterJedi]

These videos give me hope:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgyGiccYeA4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w127yuKDeqY

I guess Wisconsin voters are more informed than I thought! Walker fatigue is real!

Have you seen the Madison area? It's riddled with giant "VOTE" posters and lawn signs everywhere. It's far beyond anything I saw in 2016. My guess is that we'll overperform Dallet's raw numbers and relative turnout.

Yes, I have! Even in Milwaukee! I'm expecting near presidential-level turnout in Dane County and slightly higher turnout in Milwaukee. Dane residents are very elastic this time around! Even if another poll shows Walker ahead, the political mood in this state right now just screams "blue wave." More than 350k absentee ballots have been sent in WI, which is very impressive.

If Milwaukee can turn out like it did in 2012 it would be wonderful but we'll see. You drive out into the country between the two cities and it's giant Republican signs everywhere.

[Scottholes 2.0]

These videos give me hope:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgyGiccYeA4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w127yuKDeqY

I guess Wisconsin voters are more informed than I thought! Walker fatigue is real!

Have you seen the Madison area? It's riddled with giant "VOTE" posters and lawn signs everywhere. It's far beyond anything I saw in 2016. My guess is that we'll overperform Dallet's raw numbers and relative turnout.

Yes, I have! Even in Milwaukee! I'm expecting near presidential-level turnout in Dane County and slightly higher turnout in Milwaukee. Dane residents are very elastic this time around! Even if another poll shows Walker ahead, the political mood in this state right now just screams "blue wave." More than 350k absentee ballots have been sent in WI, which is very impressive.

If Milwaukee can turn out like it did in 2012 it would be wonderful but we'll see. You drive out into the country between the two cities and it's giant Republican signs everywhere.

Let's hope. By the way, here is an interesing map I found on Twitter:

[Progressive Pessimist]

Walker's like a bad case of crotch rot, just when you think you beat it, it comes back.

That sounds as gross as Scott Walker's very existence.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've read somewhere that up to a quarter of registered voters in Dane and Milwaukee counties have been purged from the voter rolls. Is there any truth to that? This seems like an enormous figure.

[Gass3268]

I've read somewhere that up to a quarter of registered voters in Dane and Milwaukee counties have been purged from the voter rolls. Is there any truth to that? This seems like an enormous figure.

I think I might have a spreadsheet at work, but yeah that's pretty close to accurate. I'll see if I can find the numbers tomorrow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've read somewhere that up to a quarter of registered voters in Dane and Milwaukee counties have been purged from the voter rolls. Is there any truth to that? This seems like an enormous figure.

I think I might have a spreadsheet at work, but yeah that's pretty close to accurate. I'll see if I can find the numbers tomorrow.

.........this is INSANE.

Under what pretense were they removed? And how many of them would have been likely to vote if they hadn't been disenfranchised? Could they reapply for registration?

[ON Progressive]

I've read somewhere that up to a quarter of registered voters in Dane and Milwaukee counties have been purged from the voter rolls. Is there any truth to that? This seems like an enormous figure.

I think I might have a spreadsheet at work, but yeah that's pretty close to accurate. I'll see if I can find the numbers tomorrow.

.........this is INSANE.

Under what pretense were they removed? And how many of them would have been likely to vote if they hadn't been disenfranchised? Could they reapply for registration?

Wisconsin has same-day registration, so that'll mitigate some of the blow at least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've read somewhere that up to a quarter of registered voters in Dane and Milwaukee counties have been purged from the voter rolls. Is there any truth to that? This seems like an enormous figure.

I think I might have a spreadsheet at work, but yeah that's pretty close to accurate. I'll see if I can find the numbers tomorrow.

.........this is INSANE.

Under what pretense were they removed? And how many of them would have been likely to vote if they hadn't been disenfranchised? Could they reapply for registration?

Wisconsin has same-day registration, so that'll mitigate some of the blow at least.

Thank God.

[Gass3268]

I've read somewhere that up to a quarter of registered voters in Dane and Milwaukee counties have been purged from the voter rolls. Is there any truth to that? This seems like an enormous figure.

I think I might have a spreadsheet at work, but yeah that's pretty close to accurate. I'll see if I can find the numbers tomorrow.

.........this is INSANE.

Under what pretense were they removed? And how many of them would have been likely to vote if they hadn't been disenfranchised? Could they reapply for registration?

Wisconsin has same-day registration, so that'll mitigate some of the blow at least.

Thank God.

This happened too:

21,000 Milwaukee residents will get their voter registrations reinstated before the election.

Also, a lot of the places where the % was higher were in counties with large colleges. So it would make sense that folks would get removed from the rolls after they left the area after school. Like I was probably one of the names that got purged from Dane County, considering I am now a Maryland voter.

That being said, I don't doubt that some of this was nefarious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Okay, so this isn't quite as alarming as it sounded to me. Good.

The solution to this would be to have a national voter registry that keeps track when you move to a different state, but of course Americans don't want that because something something BIG GUVMENT!!

[Scottholes 2.0]

https://twitter.com/bradkowieski/status/1056715431787094016

This "Brad Kowieski" person could be being a little biased because looking at his Twitter feed, he seems to be a big Walker supporter and even denied the accuracy of the Marist poll. However, a tie is the most likely result of tommorrow's MU poll based on his alleged "early call" to the pollster.

[Ebsy]

Is Marquette in the habit of tipping people off about their poll results before they release or complete them lol?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is Marquette in the habit of tipping people off about their poll results before they release or complete them lol?

I interpreted "early call" as meaning his early prediction of the result, not inside info on the poll.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/bradkowieski/status/1056715431787094016

This "Brad Kowieski" person could be being a little biased because looking at his Twitter feed, he seems to be a big Walker supporter and even denied the accuracy of the Marist poll. However, a tie is the most likely result of tommorrow's MU poll based on his alleged "early call" to the pollster.

Sounds about right to me. One can really see that Walker winning back WOW is key to a victory here.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/bradkowieski/status/1056715431787094016

This "Brad Kowieski" person could be being a little biased because looking at his Twitter feed, he seems to be a big Walker supporter and even denied the accuracy of the Marist poll. However, a tie is the most likely result of tommorrow's MU poll based on his alleged "early call" to the pollster.

Sounds about right to me. One can really see that Walker winning back WOW is key to a victory here.

Walker is not as strong in WOW as you think he is.

He did worse than Ron Johnson on the same ballot in 2010 in WOW despite doing better statewide than Ron.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Is Marquette in the habit of tipping people off about their poll results before they release or complete them lol?

I interpreted "early call" as meaning his early prediction of the result, not inside info on the poll.

Fair enough. It was 2 a.m. when I shared that Tweet, so perhaps I wasn't reading critically.

https://twitter.com/bradkowieski/status/1056715431787094016

This "Brad Kowieski" person could be being a little biased because looking at his Twitter feed, he seems to be a big Walker supporter and even denied the accuracy of the Marist poll. However, a tie is the most likely result of tommorrow's MU poll based on his alleged "early call" to the pollster.

Sounds about right to me. One can really see that Walker winning back WOW is key to a victory here.

Walker is not as strong in WOW as you think he is.

He did worse than Ron Johnson on the same ballot in 2010 in WOW despite doing better statewide than Ron.

You're absolutely right. WOW is trending D thanks to Trump's alienation of suburbanites (especially white suburban women).

Also, I contacted Emerson earlier this month and they said they'd be conducting a poll for Wisconsin at the end of October, so does this mean WI will be getting another poll this week or right before Election Day?

[Wiz in Wis]

Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056

[Gass3268]

Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056

If Walker is winning WI-06 by 10 or fewer points, he really can't win.

[Dr. Arch]

Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056

If it's at all close in WI-06, it's in landslide territory.

If Walker is winning WI-06 by 10 or fewer points, he really can't win.