Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer
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  Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer  (Read 85598 times)
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #550 on: September 24, 2018, 12:38:39 AM »

Working on some different Wisconsin stuff, but here is a map that averages the total votes (not %'s) of every election from 2008 on. Even though Democrats have only won 5 (08 Pres, 10 SoS, 12 Pres & 12 Sen) of the last 16, because a few of those ended up being high turnout wins, the results ended up being only 49.41-48.35 in favor of the Republicans with only a 26,351 vote differential. So this is pretty close to what an even map would look like.



I also took a look at what counties average margins were the closest to the statewide margin as an attempt to see which ones best predicted the state over the past 10 years. Here were the top-10 and their difference from the statewide average:

1. Door (0.49% more Republican)
2. Grant (1.39% more Democratic)
3. Adams (1.69% more Republican)
4. Lafayette (1.89% more Democratic)
5. Richland (2.19% more Democratic)
6. Dunn (2.16% more Republican)
7. Kenosha (3.47% more Democratic)
8. Jackson (3.53% more Democratic)
9. Trempealeau (3.64% more Democratic)
10. Columbia (3.66% more Democratic)

Not shocking, but Door County is almost the prefect swing county and quite possibly the most important county to observe on election night.
Nice map, what do you see happening in the Driftless Area? It's not particularly Rust-Belt, but it did drop off from the Dems heavily...
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #551 on: September 24, 2018, 03:31:59 PM »

Another election ploy by Scott Walker: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/09/24/scott-walker-offers-50-increase-counties-fix-their-roads/1411699002/

He should've done this YEARS ago!
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #552 on: September 24, 2018, 03:32:44 PM »

Pre-October surprise. This is good news for him.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #553 on: September 24, 2018, 03:35:14 PM »


No its not. Walker is done
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #554 on: September 24, 2018, 03:52:37 PM »


Why?Huh



Let's hope he's done! This election makes me almost as nervous as it did in 2014. 42 days cannot come sooner!
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #555 on: September 24, 2018, 04:38:09 PM »


It's hemorhofoid. He unironically thinks Wisconsin is a Titanium R state, so it's best to ignore him.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #556 on: September 25, 2018, 01:12:12 PM »

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:

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junior chįmp
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« Reply #557 on: September 25, 2018, 01:20:22 PM »

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:



Walker has reached the final stage: acceptance
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #558 on: September 25, 2018, 01:59:06 PM »

If Walker loses this year and it’s not even particularly close, WI moves to Lean D for 2020. I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising either since Democrats only lost the state because of Clinton in the first place.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #559 on: September 25, 2018, 02:30:35 PM »

Flipping only a few thousand votes in WI, MI, and PA wasn't that hard that probably went to spoiler Gary Johnson and Stein anyways, costing Hillary those states.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #560 on: September 25, 2018, 02:42:25 PM »

If Walker loses this year and it’s not even particularly close, WI moves to Lean D for 2020. I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising either since Democrats only lost the state because of Clinton in the first place.

Obviously it depends on what the situation is in 2020, and who the dems nominate, but yeah, I can't see this state moving further right if Evers wins, considering that he'll almost certainly relax the voter ID administrative laws. And if the Dems were to, by some miracle, win back the Assembly and Senate, then 'Katy, bar the door' - the post 2010 election laws will be gone by February.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #561 on: September 25, 2018, 03:23:17 PM »

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:



Walker didn’t win all those elections by being dumb
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #562 on: September 25, 2018, 03:53:03 PM »
« Edited: September 25, 2018, 04:06:05 PM by BlueFlapjack »

My biggest fear is that Walker will come up with another election ploy to delude voters all over again, then one of the final polls show him leading. I hope that doesn't happen!

If Walker loses this year and it’s not even particularly close, WI moves to Lean D for 2020. I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising either since Democrats only lost the state because of Clinton in the first place.

Obviously it depends on what the situation is in 2020, and who the dems nominate, but yeah, I can't see this state moving further right if Evers wins, considering that he'll almost certainly relax the voter ID administrative laws. And if the Dems were to, by some miracle, win back the Assembly and Senate, then 'Katy, bar the door' - the post 2010 election laws will be gone by February.

I think WI dems have a VERY good chance of winning the WI Senate considering they're only two seats away. I reckon they'll win the state Senate, but the WI State Assembly is very gerrymandered and GOP-controlled - I doubt Dems will take that legislative chamber back this fall, but maybe in 2020.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #563 on: September 25, 2018, 06:13:49 PM »

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:



Walker has reached the final stage: acceptance
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #564 on: September 25, 2018, 09:45:34 PM »

Since the original is well over 2000 posts, I believe a new thread is in order.


Anyway, it looks like Evers is promoting...tax cuts?

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/09/25/democrat-tony-evers-floats-tax-cut-860-000-working-families/1424202002/
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #565 on: September 25, 2018, 11:21:30 PM »

I will start this thread off by saying that Walker's 2012 reelection has made me a pessimist about any election in this state, and 2016 didn't help. You will see me on Atlas panicking for the next 40 days. There are days on which I'm hopeful Walker will lose, then there are days I'm not - it depends. And if Walker wins, people on Atlas will remember me for my Atlas tantrums. If not, I guess I won't be seen as paranoid Nancy. Smiley

Anyway, carry on....
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Virginiá
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« Reply #566 on: September 25, 2018, 11:27:00 PM »

Wait, hold on. I want to merge the last dozen or two pages.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #567 on: September 25, 2018, 11:30:11 PM »

There goes my thread Sad
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Virginiá
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« Reply #568 on: September 25, 2018, 11:32:20 PM »


Sorry, I didn't intend to merge 20+ old pages (I was hoping for just 12 or so), but you hadn't posted in this thread since May, so I had to go way back to still keep you as the thread author.
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #569 on: September 25, 2018, 11:33:56 PM »


Sorry, I didn't intend to merge 20+ old pages (I was hoping for just 12 or so), but you hadn't posted in this thread since May, so I had to go way back to still keep you as the thread author.

Oh lol sorry about that.

Anyway this one should still last us through the election, so I think we're fine.
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #570 on: September 25, 2018, 11:35:19 PM »


Sorry, I didn't intend to merge 20+ old pages (I was hoping for just 12 or so), but you hadn't posted in this thread since May, so I had to go way back to still keep you as the thread author.

Oh lol sorry about that.

Anyway this one should still last us through the election, so I think we're fine.

Also the old thread is actually just over 2000 now.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #571 on: September 26, 2018, 01:45:43 AM »

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:



Walker is smart enough to know that a bunch of Republicans feeling complacent and staying home because of MUH 2016 is his worst nightmare.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #572 on: September 26, 2018, 01:47:27 AM »

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:



Walker is smart enough to know that a bunch of Republicans feeling complacent and staying home because of muh 2016 is his worst nightmare.
Already showing more intelligence than DJT. I'm thinking those wary college educateds will be coming home.
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #573 on: September 26, 2018, 03:00:07 AM »

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:



Walker is smart enough to know that a bunch of Republicans feeling complacent and staying home because of muh 2016 is his worst nightmare.
Already showing more intelligence than DJT. I'm thinking those wary college educateds will be coming home.

Oh yes because one fundraising email will swing large amounts of voters...
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #574 on: September 26, 2018, 03:11:59 AM »

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:



Walker is smart enough to know that a bunch of Republicans feeling complacent and staying home because of muh 2016 is his worst nightmare.
Already showing more intelligence than DJT. I'm thinking those wary college educateds will be coming home.

Oh yes because one fundraising email will swing large amounts of voters...
Not about that one e-mail, but in general.
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