Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Antonio the Sixth]

Huh, fair enough. I guess we just define "low-turnout" differently.

[IceSpear]

Huh, fair enough. I guess we just define "low-turnout" differently.

Lol yeah, the definition of "high turnout" in Murica is definitely a lot different than it is for most European countries.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

2.5K votes cast compared to 3.1K in the Presidential race just a few months later. And basically comparable to the 2.4K cast in 2014, one of the lowest-turnout midterms in history.

Well yeah, of course it was never going to match or exceed the presidential race. But despite being a random special election in June it still exceeded turnout in 2010 and 2014, which was pretty damn impressive. In fact, it was the highest turnout ever for a Wisconsin gubernatorial race.

Leave it to Walker to inspire tons of conservative voters to come to the polls for him. Imagine what he can do in 2018.

[libertpaulian]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

2.5K votes cast compared to 3.1K in the Presidential race just a few months later. And basically comparable to the 2.4K cast in 2014, one of the lowest-turnout midterms in history.

Well yeah, of course it was never going to match or exceed the presidential race. But despite being a random special election in June it still exceeded turnout in 2010 and 2014, which was pretty damn impressive. In fact, it was the highest turnout ever for a Wisconsin gubernatorial race.

Leave it to Walker to inspire tons of conservative voters to come to the polls for him. Imagine what he can do in 2018.

Your one-liners are getting old.  Come up with REAL arguments, please.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

2.5K votes cast compared to 3.1K in the Presidential race just a few months later. And basically comparable to the 2.4K cast in 2014, one of the lowest-turnout midterms in history.

Well yeah, of course it was never going to match or exceed the presidential race. But despite being a random special election in June it still exceeded turnout in 2010 and 2014, which was pretty damn impressive. In fact, it was the highest turnout ever for a Wisconsin gubernatorial race.

Leave it to Walker to inspire tons of conservative voters to come to the polls for him. Imagine what he can do in 2018.

Your one-liners are getting old.  Come up with REAL arguments, please.

I literally was agreeing with IceSpear, yet I get the brunt of the hate.

[libertpaulian]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

2.5K votes cast compared to 3.1K in the Presidential race just a few months later. And basically comparable to the 2.4K cast in 2014, one of the lowest-turnout midterms in history.

Well yeah, of course it was never going to match or exceed the presidential race. But despite being a random special election in June it still exceeded turnout in 2010 and 2014, which was pretty damn impressive. In fact, it was the highest turnout ever for a Wisconsin gubernatorial race.

Leave it to Walker to inspire tons of conservative voters to come to the polls for him. Imagine what he can do in 2018.

Your one-liners are getting old.  Come up with REAL arguments, please.

I literally was agreeing with IceSpear, yet I get the brunt of the hate.

You have yet to prove to us why Walker will be able to recreate the Tea Party Coalition successfully when anti-Trump sentiment is strong nationwide, including in Trump's upset states in the Upper Midwest.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Above is my prediction map for the gubernatorial race. I predict that Walker will win Waukesha and Ozaukee Counties by less than 70 percent unlike last time because of the latest poll showing that he's trailing among the college-educated. Washington County will most likely vote for Walker by 70 percent.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Walker's recent tweet about the Marquette poll:

[Virginiá]

Walker's recent tweet about the Marquette poll:

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1979/44801415072_3c481a691f_o.png

Booo Walker, Marquette had Feingold+1 in their last poll. For all Walker knows, Feingold really was up +6 in September. The race just changed in the end for well-known reasons. So Walker's tweet is misleading. No surprise there.

[Xing]

Walker's recent tweet about the Marquette poll:

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1979/44801415072_3c481a691f_o.png

Booo Walker, Marquette had Feingold+1 in their last poll. For all Walker knows, Feingold really was up +6 in September. The race just changed in the end for well-known reasons. So Walker's tweet is misleading. No surprise there.

That seems to be the one argument that people claiming that Walker is favored have left: That the polls were wrong in 2016. Of course, it's not a good argument, and often those who make it end up doing worse than the polls suggest, not better. However, I think it's pretty clear to anyone following this race how much trouble Walker is in, and I think that even he knows that he's losing right now.

[Virginiá]

That seems to be the one argument that people claiming that Walker is favored have left: That the polls were wrong in 2016. Of course, it's not a good argument, and often those who make it end up doing worse than the polls suggest, not better. However, I think it's pretty clear to anyone following this race how much trouble Walker is in, and I think that even he knows that he's losing right now.

Yeah, I mean, he's just saying it to rile his people up. He obviously is seeing his internals and I bet he is down in them, or tied at best. I just think it says something about people in general that they would lie about that stuff just for some raw-raw pep tweet. It's symbolic of just how little certain types of pols care about the truth, which coincidentally Walker is a poster boy for.

On a side note, Walker being down really shouldn't be that surprising. He was never a particularly strong incumbent as far as I am concerned. His wins were pretty small and they happened in GOP wave years, and the recall happened under a Democratic president who was still more unpopular than popular at the time, with the same approvals that got Democrats blown out in 2010. Not to mention Walker was an incumbent and they usually have an advantage.

An actually-strong incumbent ought to have winning margins that look more like Tommy Thompson's, where he won 4 terms in a row, and every race but his first was won with mid-high double digit margins. Walker's winning margins have nothing on that. And at least Thompson could win his first election under the 6-year itch of a Republican president, where Democrats won the House popular vote by just shy of 10 points.

Meanwhile, Walker's first Democratic wave election and he's already on lagging behind in the polls, and as an incumbent no less. He's just a bland empty suit Republican who won a few elections and somehow got branded a master of elections and politics.

[Doimper]

Mud (even untrue) tends to stick when repeated enough times, though. Have we forgotten Swift Boat?

Your obsession with Wisconsin is even more chronic than MT Treasurer's obsession with New Hampshire...and I thought no obsession could get more chronic than that!  At least MT can concede NH is winnable for the GOP at times.

I wouldn't be so obsessed if people weren't rushing to call Walker "DOA" every single time a hiccup happens. He has survived much worse.

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Wait. Is that you, Unbeatable Titan?

It all makes sense now.

[Blair]

I haven't seen the numbers, or spending from the 2016 race but my assumption was that a late injection of money from GOP outside groups,a strong state GOP operation and Trump boosting rural turnout all gave RoJo just enough to get through- combined with Feingold's own weaknesses from past campaigns.

Walker won't have the luxury of outspending, or boosted rural turnout.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I haven't seen the numbers, or spending from the 2016 race but my assumption was that a late injection of money from GOP outside groups,a strong state GOP operation and Trump boosting rural turnout all gave RoJo just enough to get through- combined with Feingold's own weaknesses from past campaigns.

Walker won't have the luxury of outspending, or boosted rural turnout.

Why won't he, though? He replaces scant rural numbers with fantastic numbers in WOW...and the Kochs have him as their own personal pet project.

[mcmikk]

That seems to be the one argument that people claiming that Walker is favored have left: That the polls were wrong in 2016. Of course, it's not a good argument, and often those who make it end up doing worse than the polls suggest, not better. However, I think it's pretty clear to anyone following this race how much trouble Walker is in, and I think that even he knows that he's losing right now.

Yeah, I mean, he's just saying it to rile his people up. He obviously is seeing his internals and I bet he is down in them, or tied at best. I just think it says something about people in general that they would lie about that stuff just for some raw-raw pep tweet. It's symbolic of just how little certain types of pols care about the truth, which coincidentally Walker is a poster boy for.

On a side note, Walker being down really shouldn't be that surprising. He was never a particularly strong incumbent as far as I am concerned. His wins were pretty small and they happened in GOP wave years, and the recall happened under a Democratic president who was still more unpopular than popular at the time, with the same approvals that got Democrats blown out in 2010. Not to mention Walker was an incumbent and they usually have an advantage.

An actually-strong incumbent ought to have winning margins that look more like Tommy Thompson's, where he won 4 terms in a row, and every race but his first was won with mid-high double digit margins. Walker's winning margins have nothing on that. And at least Thompson could win his first election under the 6-year itch of a Republican president, where Democrats won the House popular vote by just shy of 10 points.

Meanwhile, Walker's first Democratic wave election and he's already on lagging behind in the polls, and as an incumbent no less. He's just a bland empty suit Republican who won a few elections and somehow got branded a master of elections and politics.

This. All of this.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I haven't seen the numbers, or spending from the 2016 race but my assumption was that a late injection of money from GOP outside groups,a strong state GOP operation and Trump boosting rural turnout all gave RoJo just enough to get through- combined with Feingold's own weaknesses from past campaigns.

Walker won't have the luxury of outspending, or boosted rural turnout.

Why won't he, though? He replaces scant rural numbers with fantastic numbers in WOW...and the Kochs have him as their own personal pet project.

Like I've told you before, those "fantastic WOW numbers" could likely plummet slightly this year because of the latest Marquette poll showing Walker trailing among the college-educated and the nationwide shift of college-educated white people towards the Democrat Party. WOW won't save him this time if Evers and Baldwin regain many Obama-Trump voters in the rural areas of the state.

On a side note: I made a vow to myself that if Walker gets reelected, I am heading for Minnesota! 8 years is LONG enough! ACT 10 has been an absolute detriment to my wages and working conditions as a public-sector employee.

[Dr. Arch]

I haven't seen the numbers, or spending from the 2016 race but my assumption was that a late injection of money from GOP outside groups,a strong state GOP operation and Trump boosting rural turnout all gave RoJo just enough to get through- combined with Feingold's own weaknesses from past campaigns.

Walker won't have the luxury of outspending, or boosted rural turnout.

Why won't he, though? He replaces scant rural numbers with fantastic numbers in WOW...and the Kochs have him as their own personal pet project.

Like I've told you before, those "fantastic WOW numbers" could likely plummet slightly this year because of the latest Marquette poll showing Walker trailing among the college-educated and the nationwide shift of college-educated white people towards the Democrat Party. WOW won't save him this time if Evers and Baldwin regain many Obama-Trump voters in the rural areas of the state.

On a side note: I made a vow to myself that if Walker gets reelected, I am heading for Minnesota! 8 years is LONG enough! ACT 10 has been an absolute detriment to my wages and working conditions as a public-sector employee.

Likely where I'm headed too, if not Vancouver

[Gass3268]

Very little enthusiasm for the Republican ticket in Burlington, a pretty Republican city in WI-01:

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Source

[Dr. Arch]

Very little enthusiasm for the Republican ticket in Burlington, a pretty Republican city in WI-01:

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Source

WI might surprise more than believed in November. We'll see.

[Virginiá]

Very little enthusiasm for the Republican ticket in Burlington, a pretty Republican city in WI-01:

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Source

WI might surprise more than believed in November. We'll see.

I really hope Democrats can flip at least one chamber of the legislature if they win the Govs office. It's critical because Wisconsin Republicans are exactly the type to use their remaining power in the legislature to refer a constitutional amendment to the ballot in 2020 to take away the Gov's ability to veto new maps. I wouldn't put it past them to try and end same-day voter registration too (Walker already looked into it but deemed it to expensive). They need to pass the amendment by a majority vote in two back-to-back sessions to get it on the ballot, which means if they lose the state Senate this cycle, they can't do it in time.

Never underestimate what corrupt, partisan lawmakers will do when backed into a corner and threatened with the loss of power they have come to take for granted. Pennsylvania Republicans seriously entertained impeaching every Democrat on the state Supreme Court for overturning the Congressional map, and they already made moves to try and take away Democrats' influence in redistricting just like I mused about above. I'm not 100% the WIGOP will try this, but we're bound to see them try this in a couple states if the losses are bad. They are not going to go quietly.

[Dr. Arch]

Very little enthusiasm for the Republican ticket in Burlington, a pretty Republican city in WI-01:

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Source

WI might surprise more than believed in November. We'll see.

I really hope Democrats can flip at least one chamber of the legislature if they win the Govs office. It's critical because Wisconsin Republicans are exactly the type to use their remaining power in the legislature to refer a constitutional amendment to the ballot in 2020 to take away the Gov's ability to veto new maps. I wouldn't put it past them to try and end same-day voter registration too (Walker already looked into it but deemed it to expensive). They need to pass the amendment by a majority vote in two back-to-back sessions to get it on the ballot, which means if they lose the state Senate this cycle, they can't do it in time.

Never underestimate what corrupt, partisan lawmakers will do when backed into a corner and threatened with the loss of power they have come to take for granted. Pennsylvania Republicans seriously entertained impeaching every Democrat on the state Supreme Court for overturning the Congressional map, and they already made moves to try and take away Democrats' influence in redistricting just like I mused about above. I'm not 100% the WIGOP will try this, but we're bound to see them try this in a couple states if the losses are bad. They are not going to go quietly.

I honestly hope they flip both chambers, for this state's sake. It's honestly quite tiresome to live under such a blatantly toxic political environment that is the WI GOP. Very few other state-level Republican parties can top it (I can think of at least NC here).

In any case, if this state is to not go the way of Kansas, there has to be significant change for a good period of time. The gap between WI and MN will continue to widen as this state sinks further into an economic and migratory abyss.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I haven't seen the numbers, or spending from the 2016 race but my assumption was that a late injection of money from GOP outside groups,a strong state GOP operation and Trump boosting rural turnout all gave RoJo just enough to get through- combined with Feingold's own weaknesses from past campaigns.

Walker won't have the luxury of outspending, or boosted rural turnout.

Why won't he, though? He replaces scant rural numbers with fantastic numbers in WOW...and the Kochs have him as their own personal pet project.

Like I've told you before, those "fantastic WOW numbers" could likely plummet slightly this year because of the latest Marquette poll showing Walker trailing among the college-educated and the nationwide shift of college-educated white people towards the Democrat Party. WOW won't save him this time if Evers and Baldwin regain many Obama-Trump voters in the rural areas of the state.

On a side note: I made a vow to myself that if Walker gets reelected, I am heading for Minnesota! 8 years is LONG enough! ACT 10 has been an absolute detriment to my wages and working conditions as a public-sector employee.

Likely where I'm headed too, if not Vancouver

I studied abroad in Vancouver for a month back in undergrad school. I really liked Granville Island. It has a good variety of pubs, restaurants, and bakeries which encapsculate the charm of the area

Very little enthusiasm for the Republican ticket in Burlington, a pretty Republican city in WI-01:

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Source

WI might surprise more than believed in November. We'll see.

I don't know, but how many Baldwin-Walker voters exist? The number of split ticket voters is getting smaller. I would argue that is especially true here in Wisconsin where Walker has been polarizing in Wisconsin for years. It is also hard to think of a specific issue where Tammy Baldwin and Scott Walker are the same on which would give a clear reason for people to vote for both. I personally feel like Baldwin is going down if Evers does. It's just hard to envision, but like you said we'll see in Nov! Here's a good article on how voters could split tickets to reelect Walker and Baldwin: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/blogs/wisconsin-voter/2018/09/10/even-polarized-partisan-wisconsin-swing-voters-still-exist/1223275002/

If Evers continues to lead like this from this point onward, I believe he's got this race in the bag! Walker is no Tommy Thompson!

[Gass3268]

Very little enthusiasm for the Republican ticket in Burlington, a pretty Republican city in WI-01:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Source

WI might surprise more than believed in November. We'll see.

I really hope Democrats can flip at least one chamber of the legislature if they win the Govs office. It's critical because Wisconsin Republicans are exactly the type to use their remaining power in the legislature to refer a constitutional amendment to the ballot in 2020 to take away the Gov's ability to veto new maps. I wouldn't put it past them to try and end same-day voter registration too (Walker already looked into it but deemed it to expensive). They need to pass the amendment by a majority vote in two back-to-back sessions to get it on the ballot, which means if they lose the state Senate this cycle, they can't do it in time.

Never underestimate what corrupt, partisan lawmakers will do when backed into a corner and threatened with the loss of power they have come to take for granted. Pennsylvania Republicans seriously entertained impeaching every Democrat on the state Supreme Court for overturning the Congressional map, and they already made moves to try and take away Democrats' influence in redistricting just like I mused about above. I'm not 100% the WIGOP will try this, but we're bound to see them try this in a couple states if the losses are bad. They are not going to go quietly.

I don't think the state is dumb enough to go along with that. They just rejected an obvious power grab to eliminate the Treasurer position.

[Virginiá]

I don't think the state is dumb enough to go along with that. They just rejected an obvious power grab to eliminate the Treasurer position.

Well, on one hand, sometimes voters are smart enough to reject these kinds of power grabs (Minnesota even rejected voter ID, yet other states didn't), but on the other, Wisconsin voted for Donald Trump of all people, and has seemed completely unbothered by the ethics issues surrounding Walker & Co. So I'm not exactly taking solace in the idea that they can be relied on to reject a measure that changes redistricting rules. To voters, it's a boring and confusing process that only happens once in a while and the amendment language for stuff like that often looks pretty innocent (or can be made to - re: North Carolina judicial amendment). Democrats could wage a big persuasion campaign against it, but given their poor track on ballot initiatives prior to 2018, I'm not sure I trust that either.

At any rate, it's just better that Republicans can't put anything on the ballot in the first place.

[Gass3268]

Working on some different Wisconsin stuff, but here is a map that averages the total votes (not %'s) of every election from 2008 on. Even though Democrats have only won 5 (08 Pres, 10 SoS, 12 Pres & 12 Sen) of the last 16, because a few of those ended up being high turnout wins, the results ended up being only 49.41-48.35 in favor of the Republicans with only a 26,351 vote differential. So this is pretty close to what an even map would look like.



I also took a look at what counties average margins were the closest to the statewide margin as an attempt to see which ones best predicted the state over the past 10 years. Here were the top-10 and their difference from the statewide average:

1. Door (0.49% more Republican)
2. Grant (1.39% more Democratic)
3. Adams (1.69% more Republican)
4. Lafayette (1.89% more Democratic)
5. Richland (2.19% more Democratic)
6. Dunn (2.16% more Republican)
7. Kenosha (3.47% more Democratic)
8. Jackson (3.53% more Democratic)
9. Trempealeau (3.64% more Democratic)
10. Columbia (3.66% more Democratic)

Not shocking, but Door County is almost the prefect swing county and quite possibly the most important county to observe on election night.