Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Unless one is Obama or Dubya or JFK, debates don't sway much.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

He's right to be worried. Wisconsin is the next Arkansas. Dems have completely forgotten this state in their pursuit for Atlanta old money denizens.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Evers lead flopping down in new Reuters poll. Where are all those that doubted me now? 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Cannot wait for the next Marquette poll. This race has been the most exciting this year, bar none.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It’ll be Evers +4 or +5, and Atlas will proceed to call the race for Evers before a single vote has been counted.

Mhmm, if there's something everyone can agree on, Dems are too overconfident about Wisconsin.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I'm tired of the notion that Walker "came back to win all his elections"

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2010? Every single one. In fact, the polls actually overestimated Walker in 2010!

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in his 2012 recall election? All but two, and none after February 2012. The polling average was exactly where he ended up too.

Want to know how many polls Scott Walker led in 2014? The vast majority of them, and he ultimately led in the polling average by election day.

Scott Walker's strength is severely overestimated by people just because he managed to perform like Generic R would in two GOP wave years and survived a recall which he was always favored in.

A lot of us who have been around a while have been burned by this race quite a few times (3 times in 4 years, in fact!) so it makes sense that we'd be more cautious. The polling average doesn't really tell the whole story here. I couldn't tell you how many times the overconfident Dems insisted that we'd have Gov. Barrett and Gov. Burke, sometimes even backed up by favorable polling.

This 1000x times. I can't count how many times Walker was declared DOA on here over the years. I've been monitoring this forum since '09, and that's a common thread.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/bradkowieski/status/1056715431787094016

This "Brad Kowieski" person could be being a little biased because looking at his Twitter feed, he seems to be a big Walker supporter and even denied the accuracy of the Marist poll. However, a tie is the most likely result of tommorrow's MU poll based on his alleged "early call" to the pollster.

Sounds about right to me. One can really see that Walker winning back WOW is key to a victory here.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056

If Walker is winning WI-06 by 10 or fewer points, he really can't win.

He can easily make up the margins where Dems have struggled recently (The Driftless as well as Duffy's district).

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarquetteMedia/status/1057362530450862080

I can't wait; I've been waiting for Marquette to come back and give us those Gold Standard numbers.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

My body is ready for the Marquette poll . People don't understand how much I've been waiting for it.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

My body is ready for the Marquette poll . People don't understand how much I've been waiting for it.

How are you going to spin it if Evers is up by 5 or more?

I'm gonna pore over the crosstabs as well as measure it against early voting numbers.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I'm being pessimistic and predicting Walker +1.

I'm predicting the same. There seems to be no change from the fundamentals from then till today.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

My prediction was only a percentage point off. I'd have to give the edge to Walker, though. A lot of the rogue GOPers/NeverTrumpers are coming home and it won't even be this close, honestly. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Wait Walker might win?

It's not even a might at this point. This is brutal for the Dems...for this to happen at the height of Pittsburgh/Bombing mania.   

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Eternal Gov. Walker, the Terry Branstad of our times

Yep, I've been saying this since I've started on this forum. The fact that I've been mocked endlessly for it honestly annoys me to no end. It's gonna take a wave much bigger than '06 to knock him off.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Were they using 2014 demographics again?

They weight for education...to my knowledge, the only one polling Wisconsin that does.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Why does Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland counties always vote Democratic?

The same reason Vermont does. Heavy on tourism. The same reason as Cook County, MN. These are the sites of amazing Lake Superior resorts. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Is the Wisconsin 6th Congressional District really going to be competitive this years? Since when?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/wisconsin/6/#deluxe

http://www.wuwm.com/post/analysis-why-wisconsins-6th-congressional-race-so-competitive#stream/0

My guess is Ozaukee County is trending D perhaps?

One can only hope. This is one of the oldest GOP areas in the nation.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Early vote numbers compared to 2016 looking fantastic for the GOP, as main GOP counties of Ozaukee and Waukesha are crushing Dane and Milwaukee in turnout. 

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I wish there were good, analysis-friendly anecdotes from the WOW counties, but nothing of any worth at the moment.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

I asked the poll workers in my precinct how turnout was today and they said "VERY good". I'm more interested to see if Dems are peeling off some voters in WOW. Evers needs to keep Walker under 70 in Waukesha to win.

Hmm, very good turnout in Waukesha...where have we seen this before. Granted, Dane is doing fine so far...so it's all down to the swingy rurals.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The WOW counties might surprise us. With the way Dems are being projected to make gains in the suburbs or win suburban districts, I would not be surprised if Dems make solid gains in WOW.

Only to be matched by erosion in the Driftless? Trends go both ways. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Kenosha is almost all in, and Evers winning by 7%... that's a really bad sign for Walker. Evers has 100k margin in MKE.

I'm still waiting on the rurals.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Most of the City of Madison and parts of the urban core in MKE. If Evers can keep the margins he has in the rest of the state, he's got the governorship.

Are they all in or out? I can't breathe here. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Manitowoc, Monroe, Pepin, Polk, Burnett, and Calumet still mostly out...and 7 precincts to go in Waukesha.  This ain't over.