Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wiz in Wis]

Im guessing they fixed their screen

He said at the beginning that the screen is simply those who say they are certain to vote.  I don't know if this is a change from previous months.

Previous poll was a screen of 2014/2016 voters, which is why it yielded such an odd result. You can go back to the thread, I believe it was talked about a lot.

I said that and I was wrong, but it’s still a super tight screen. You have to be 100% certain you are going vote in November. Even being 95% sure won’t cut it.

Ah,thats it. All right, thanks! I wonder if it was changed, or Democrats are now saying 100%?

Probably the same filter, but we're seeing more Dem energy

[RogueBeaver]

My guess is he loses 52/46, part of the Midwestern boomerang a la 2006.

[2016]

The Republicans will get all those Seats back and more in 2022 especially if Democrats (Warren) win the WH in 2020. Then they'll likely overreach just like Obama did with Stimulus & ObamaCare and get clobbered in 2022. At least that's what I am hoping if we lose big in November.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1042130637359120384

White Non-College Educated Men: Walker +12
White Non-College Educated Women: Evers +2
White College Educated Men: Evers +4
White College Educated Women: Evers +26
Nonwhite or Hispanic: Evers +12

[Scottholes 2.0]

WOW - I was wrong!

Let's hope the GOP doesn't purge Democrats from voter rolls, gerrymandered, closed polling stations in D areas, and suppress the vote due to unusual voter ID laws. They can’t win fairly so they’ve protected themselves via fraud. Let's hope they don't steal the election. Again. Remember, Hillary was leading in the final Marquette poll.

[junior chįmp]

F5

https://www.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1042143831242825728

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1042130637359120384

White Non-College Educated Men: Walker +12
White Non-College Educated Women: Evers +2
White College Educated Men: Evers +4
White College Educated Women: Evers +26
Nonwhite or Hispanic: Evers +12

Don't show RINO Tom those numbers.

[libertpaulian]

What's with everyone's boner for RINO Tom in every thread?!

[Dr. Arch]

What's with everyone's boner for RINO Tom in every thread?!

Too many crushes, it seems.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1042130637359120384

White Non-College Educated Men: Walker +12
White Non-College Educated Women: Evers +2
White College Educated Men: Evers +4
White College Educated Women: Evers +26
Nonwhite or Hispanic: Evers +12

Don't show RINO Tom those numbers.

"Hey RINO Tom, sorry if this ruins what might be a great Cubs game for you, but I have some news that might be... difficult to tell you. You see, Scott Walker is losing college educated white voters in Wisconsin, providing a data point which suggests that college educated voters might trend Democratic in 2018. I know that this is devastating for you, but know that we're all here to support you during this difficult time."

[IceSpear]

What's with everyone's boner for RINO Tom in every thread?!

Well, he's a very handsome man, but personally my boner was from that Evers +26 number.

[Virginiá]

Former aides give Wisconsin Gov. Walker re-election headache

https://www.apnews.com/35bb8cada6524e6ba6e6e9e4440d2be7

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[Scottholes 2.0]

Walker is launching more attack ads against Evers, this time accusing him of not firing a teacher for having a physical altercation with a student.

http://www.therepublic.com/2018/09/20/wi-election-2018-governor-wisconsin-6/

[Gass3268]

Walker is launching more attack ads against Evers, this time accusing him of not firing a teacher for having a physical altercation with a student.

http://www.therepublic.com/2018/09/20/wi-election-2018-governor-wisconsin-6/

That’s the only attack line that Walker has been using since Evers won in August. Polling clearly shows it isn’t working.

[Virginiá]

I really hate this part of politics. It can get so vicious at times, and usually with attacks that completely lack context that would make them significantly less attack-worthy if provided. It's all just so shameless. Just throw anything at them, even if it's blatantly false or irrelevant, and see if it sticks.

[Gass3268]

I really hate this part of politics. It can get so vicious at times, and usually with attacks that completely lack context that would make them significantly less attack-worthy if provided. It's all just so shameless. Just throw anything at them, even if it's blatantly false or irrelevant, and see if it sticks.

Evers has done a pretty good job at defending himself from these attacks. Explaining he had to follow the law as written and that he tried to get the law changed, all before pivoting to another issue like health care or Scottholes.

[libertpaulian]

When your only option is to go negative, you're losing.

[junior chįmp]

Walker is launching more attack ads against Evers, this time accusing him of not firing a teacher for having a physical altercation with a student.

http://www.therepublic.com/2018/09/20/wi-election-2018-governor-wisconsin-6/

Lol....this is the best desperado can do? Walker is finished.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Mud (even untrue) tends to stick when repeated enough times, though. Have we forgotten Swift Boat?

[libertpaulian]

Mud (even untrue) tends to stick when repeated enough times, though. Have we forgotten Swift Boat?

Your obsession with Wisconsin is even more chronic than MT Treasurer's obsession with New Hampshire...and I thought no obsession could get more chronic than that!  At least MT can concede NH is winnable for the GOP at times.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Mud (even untrue) tends to stick when repeated enough times, though. Have we forgotten Swift Boat?

Your obsession with Wisconsin is even more chronic than MT Treasurer's obsession with New Hampshire...and I thought no obsession could get more chronic than that!  At least MT can concede NH is winnable for the GOP at times.

I wouldn't be so obsessed if people weren't rushing to call Walker "DOA" every single time a hiccup happens. He has survived much worse.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

[IceSpear]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

[Antonio the Sixth]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

2.5K votes cast compared to 3.1K in the Presidential race just a few months later. And basically comparable to the 2.4K cast in 2014, one of the lowest-turnout midterms in history.

[IceSpear]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

2.5K votes cast compared to 3.1K in the Presidential race just a few months later. And basically comparable to the 2.4K cast in 2014, one of the lowest-turnout midterms in history.

Well yeah, of course it was never going to match or exceed the presidential race. But despite being a random special election in June it still exceeded turnout in 2010 and 2014, which was pretty damn impressive. In fact, it was the highest turnout ever for a Wisconsin gubernatorial race.