Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Prediction:
Baldwin +7 ("GOLD STANDARD shows Baldwin leading.")

Walker + 3 and everyone decides Marquette is no longer the Gold Standard until they show results they want.

What I don't understand is why every other poll has shown Evers leading, while every Marquette poll  in this cycle has indicated Walker either leading or tied with Evers. Vukmir was the closest she'd ever been to Baldwin on the last Marquette poll. The Marquette poll obviously skews Republican.

Nope, the Marquette poll was lauded by the Atlas users until they showed uncomfortable results vis-à-vis this state.

[Virginiá]

Prediction:
Baldwin +7 ("GOLD STANDARD shows Baldwin leading.")

Walker + 3 and everyone decides Marquette is no longer the Gold Standard until they show results they want.

What I don't understand is why every other poll has shown Evers leading, while every Marquette poll  in this cycle has indicated Walker either leading or tied with Evers. Vukmir was the closest she'd ever been to Baldwin on the last Marquette poll. The Marquette poll obviously skews Republican.

Nope, the Marquette poll was lauded by the Atlas users until they showed uncomfortable results vis-à-vis this state.

Seriously? You do this too. You have no standing to complain about other people when you casually praise polls that confirm your biases and then turn around and trash the same outfit for showing results you don't like:

Gravis is gonna Gravis. Doesn't fly with a D+3 Generic ballot. Manchin +2 I can believe.

Compared to:

IN-SEN Gravis: Braun +1

Told you guys. This is Bayh 2.0, R+10 election day.  Where are those mocking me now?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction:
Baldwin +7 ("GOLD STANDARD shows Baldwin leading.")

Walker + 3 and everyone decides Marquette is no longer the Gold Standard until they show results they want.

What I don't understand is why every other poll has shown Evers leading, while every Marquette poll  in this cycle has indicated Walker either leading or tied with Evers. Vukmir was the closest she'd ever been to Baldwin on the last Marquette poll. The Marquette poll obviously skews Republican.

This may be an effect of their likely voter screen. 

[LimoLiberal]

prediction: Walker +4

edit: yep, sample is gop leaning.

[GeorgiaModerate]

MU: Evers+5 (49-44)

[Wiz in Wis]

EVERS +5!!!!

49-44!

[GeorgiaModerate]

prediction: Walker +4

edit: yep, sample is gop leaning.

How can you tell?

It's actually a D+1 sample.  I'm watching the live stream.

[MT Treasurer]

prediction: Walker +4

edit: yep, sample is gop leaning.

How can you tell?

It's actually a D+1 sample.  I'm watching the live stream.

Ah, I see. Thanks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Baldwin+11 (53-42).

[LimoLiberal]

prediction: Walker +4

edit: yep, sample is gop leaning.

How can you tell?

It's actually a D+1 sample.  I'm watching the live stream.

I said this because it looked more favorable to the GOP than the long-term party ID numbers they showed in the graph. never mind. Great poll for Evers!

[Wiz in Wis]

Wow... and they have Schimel up 7 in the AG race... WALKER HAS TO HATE THAT!

[Gass3268]

Baldwin is up 53-42

[GeorgiaModerate]

Those are all LV voters so far.  If anyone else wants to watch the stream, it's at https://law-media.marquette.edu/Mediasite/Play/a5025d14319b47e29f4b941e1bc1380c1d.

[Xing]

Like I said, it's going to have Walker leading. Mark my words!

Alright, Wisconsinite, you've got some explaining to do.

Anyway, inb4 people who hate Walker now think Marquette is the gold standard again, and people who love Walker think it's biased toward the Democrats.

[Dr. Arch]

YAAA BOIII  8]

[Zaybay]

Im guessing they fixed their screen

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

OK, cool, but we have 7 weeks to go. Wait for any October Surprise. This is narrower than this little gem from 2016...

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/11/02/mlsp41release/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Im guessing they fixed their screen

He said at the beginning that the screen is simply those who say they are certain to vote.  I don't know if this is a change from previous months.

[junior chįmp]

The end is near for the Walker-Koch regime. Liberation by Supernintendo Evers is at hand

[Gass3268]

Like I said, it's going to have Walker leading. Mark my words!

Alright, Wisconsinite, you've got some explaining to do.

Anyway, inb4 people who hate Walker now think Marquette is the gold standard again, and people who love Walker think it's biased toward the Democrats.

I knew after looking at the last poll that they got a very conservative sample from the City of Milwaukee, if that was adjusted it looked closer to this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Walker's favorability is 45/52, Baldwin's is 48/40.

[Zaybay]

Im guessing they fixed their screen

He said at the beginning that the screen is simply those who say they are certain to vote.  I don't know if this is a change from previous months.

Previous poll was a screen of 2014/2016 voters, which is why it yielded such an odd result. You can go back to the thread, I believe it was talked about a lot.

[Gass3268]

Im guessing they fixed their screen

He said at the beginning that the screen is simply those who say they are certain to vote.  I don't know if this is a change from previous months.

Previous poll was a screen of 2014/2016 voters, which is why it yielded such an odd result. You can go back to the thread, I believe it was talked about a lot.

I said that and I was wrong, but it’s still a super tight screen. You have to be 100% certain you are going vote in November. Even being 95% sure won’t cut it.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I wonder if Wisconsin Dems will start to lose sight of the goal and get too complacent early on/not fight for the legislature too with these polls in their corner. Don't let it happen, peeps.

[Zaybay]

Im guessing they fixed their screen

He said at the beginning that the screen is simply those who say they are certain to vote.  I don't know if this is a change from previous months.

Previous poll was a screen of 2014/2016 voters, which is why it yielded such an odd result. You can go back to the thread, I believe it was talked about a lot.

I said that and I was wrong, but it’s still a super tight screen. You have to be 100% certain you are going vote in November. Even being 95% sure won’t cut it.

Ah,thats it. All right, thanks! I wonder if it was changed, or Democrats are now saying 100%?