Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

She attended his presidential kickoff event in 2015:

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Also:



Source

[Gass3268]

Sheriff Clarke too:

[Gass3268]

Kelda Roys is the leading fundraiser, Mitchell second and then Evers. All behind Walker by a lot:

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1019214499679793153

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1019215459776974848

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1019215717915353089

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1019216012393287680

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1019216120170115077

[Gass3268]

I swear, if Kelda Roys gets the nomination, Im moving WI to safe R.

Also, those fundraising numbers are scattered between, like, 10 candidates. After the primary, funding should be directed at the nominee(hopefully Evers or Mitchell)

Why would you do that during the Year of the Woman?

[Gass3268]

Paul Soglin will not be running for reelection for Mayor of Madison:

https://twitter.com/WiStateJournal/status/1019286917823782913

[Gass3268]

Walker can withstand the Democratic wave, since Milwaukee and Madison don't have many Latinos as other states might have. That's a reason why, Trump did so well in MI, PA and WI. But more WWC in WI.

100x yep. 2018 DNC (and supporting arms) has no clue how to win states outside the coastal bubbles.

If the Dems run on an old school labor message, they have a chance of ousting Walker.  If they run a boilerplate campaign that sounds like something the national party would create, Walker will win again.

Just saying Mills and Tony Evers arent the charismatic candidate like Whitmer and Grisham are.

It's the Rust Belt.  You don't need charismatic and sexy to win.

Mark Dayton, Terry Branstad, Pat Quinn, Ted Strickland, and Jennifer Granholm are prime examples of that.

Granholm is pretty charismatic. Just watch some of her tipsy DNC speeches.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1022471072942313472

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/boniver/status/1025139177896079360

[Gass3268]

Three State Senators endorsed Evers over the weekend:

https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1025387385868218368

https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1025446461713068032

https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1026144899274629120

[Gass3268]

Mitchell hitting Milwaukee-area airwaves hard. Not sure whether the final push will be enough to push him past the others, but this race is going to be close. My guess is that Evers wins by a small margin, with Mitchell the runner-up. It all depends on whether Milwaukee flexes some of its muscle, which seems doubtful if one looks at the 2016 general results as well as this spring's election turnout (relative to the rest of the state).

My opinion of the MKE area, outside of politics (although, as we can see, the city's residents have gone out of their way to show that they don't really care all that much), is overall very poor. So far, it's been the most disappointing city I've visited.

Milwaukee's problem is that 1) it tries to play second-fiddle to Chicago instead of trying to develop its own niche and identity, and 2) it's followed the same patterns and traits of every post-industrial Midwestern city.

Sounds about right. I couldn't be paid enough to move to a city where mediocrity is, by and large, the modus operandi apparent.

Milwaukee has a lot of issues, but there is definitely an identity. Summerfest, its beer history and culture, Brewers/Bucks, butter burgers, custard stands, Mr. Baseball, Happy Days, Laverne and Shirley, the Milwaukee Art Museum Cream City, etc.

[Gass3268]

Former Walker cabinet official claims in a new book that Scott Walker and Brad Schimel drove him to the brink of suicide.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1027915002114658306

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1027914228420804608

[Gass3268]

Dane County:

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1029406723877027840

[Gass3268]

Very high turnout in Madison:

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1029582374030467073

[Gass3268]

Said Evers by 25%, almost dead on, the other nobodies were far behind, lol at Soglin.

In other good nears Earnell Lucas won, and two liberals are up for the Aldermanic seat in Milwaukee, replacing a moderate conservative. Aka should be one more streetcar supporter on the common council!

Milwaukee Democrats came out big time yesterday too, Dem Gov vs Rep Gov was 73-27. There have been some primaries in the past where Democrats have been in the low 60's in Milwaukee.

[Gass3268]

Good choice by Evers and Barnes!

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1029745033484877825

[Gass3268]

Another ex-Walker cabinet member backs Evers

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I bet Evers has been sitting on this for a while

There was also a report out today that Walker has been using taxpayer money to fly very short distances (sometimes less than 40 miles). Corruption and misusing of funds could become a key point in the fall. Also its a way to draw similarities to Trump.

Source

[Gass3268]

Mayor Soglin out directing traffic this morning in Madison's westside after flooding took out power last night:

https://twitter.com/MatthewCashWkow/status/1031907815496015876

[Gass3268]

Now the Kochs are rushing to support Walker AGAIN to help him win and crash our blue wave. Argh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/kochs-fund-1point8-million-ads-for-wisconsins-walker-ahead-of-midterms.html

Lean -> Likely R at this point unless Marquette shows Evers up in double digits. Wisconsin has always been a Koch-influenced state.

Lolno, this a pure toss-up contest. Believing it to be leaning in any direction, either way, would be foolish.

[Gass3268]

Can certain posters stop posting after every other post. Half my screen is currently on ignore.

[Gass3268]

Watch this space tonight. I've been working on some PVI maps that could give us some clues on what to be on the look for on election night.

[Gass3268]

Watch this space tonight. I've been working on some PVI maps that could give us some clues on what to be on the look for on election night.

ooooh---- looking forward to this!!!!!

Not going to happen tonight as some other things came up, but I hope to have something posted tomorrow.

[Gass3268]

It has been flooding in Madison since Monday night when it rained like 13 inches in only a couple hours:

https://twitter.com/wxgeoff/status/1031721836516712450

https://twitter.com/isthbel/status/1031901392783458304

The fear now is that there are more storms forecasted for this evening and the dams that control the water flow for the Yahara River, which connects Lake Mendota to Lake Monona and has already flooded badly, are at risk of be compromised and failing, which would be horrific:

https://twitter.com/msommerhauser/status/1032696379389472768

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1032977647683469312

https://twitter.com/CapTimesPhotos/status/1032682130327973888

https://twitter.com/akschaaf/status/1032967896539049987

Governor Walker has already declared a state emergency:

https://twitter.com/GovWalker/status/1032055235693486080

[Gass3268]

Marquette's Gov number was fine, it was their senate number that was crazy.

[Gass3268]

I gotta say, Evers is doing really well in the polls this election season, A LOT better than Mary Burke did when she was running against Walker. Walker has literally only led in ONE poll so far. I just hope Evers continues to slaughter him as polling becomes more important, like in October. He's going to win this race if he polls like this in October. Heck, if he continues to beat Walker in the polls in a month from now, this race should be consiered lean D.

Come on, Evers. You've got this!

And why does Cook Political still have this race as lean R yet has Baldwin's race as likely D when Walker's much more vulnerable than Baldwin?

Im glad that youve got the enthusiasm about the race back! This race is definitely gonna be a top D pickup, and Walker is definitely on the ropes.

And about the Cook Political thing, they still rate the OK governorship solid R, and moved OR to lean D after a Gravis poll. This is why no one on Atlas really trusts the pundits.

Wasserman does a relatively good job with the House ratings, it's much better than Inside Elections, however the person who does the SEN/GOV ratings is struggling.

[Gass3268]

I've some horrific pictures from Ontario in Vernon County.