Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

OK, cool, but we have 7 weeks to go. Wait for any October Surprise. This is narrower than this little gem from 2016...

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/11/02/mlsp41release/

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I wonder if Wisconsin Dems will start to lose sight of the goal and get too complacent early on/not fight for the legislature too with these polls in their corner. Don't let it happen, peeps.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Mud (even untrue) tends to stick when repeated enough times, though. Have we forgotten Swift Boat?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Mud (even untrue) tends to stick when repeated enough times, though. Have we forgotten Swift Boat?

Your obsession with Wisconsin is even more chronic than MT Treasurer's obsession with New Hampshire...and I thought no obsession could get more chronic than that!  At least MT can concede NH is winnable for the GOP at times.

I wouldn't be so obsessed if people weren't rushing to call Walker "DOA" every single time a hiccup happens. He has survived much worse.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

2.5K votes cast compared to 3.1K in the Presidential race just a few months later. And basically comparable to the 2.4K cast in 2014, one of the lowest-turnout midterms in history.

Well yeah, of course it was never going to match or exceed the presidential race. But despite being a random special election in June it still exceeded turnout in 2010 and 2014, which was pretty damn impressive. In fact, it was the highest turnout ever for a Wisconsin gubernatorial race.

Leave it to Walker to inspire tons of conservative voters to come to the polls for him. Imagine what he can do in 2018.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

2.5K votes cast compared to 3.1K in the Presidential race just a few months later. And basically comparable to the 2.4K cast in 2014, one of the lowest-turnout midterms in history.

Well yeah, of course it was never going to match or exceed the presidential race. But despite being a random special election in June it still exceeded turnout in 2010 and 2014, which was pretty damn impressive. In fact, it was the highest turnout ever for a Wisconsin gubernatorial race.

Leave it to Walker to inspire tons of conservative voters to come to the polls for him. Imagine what he can do in 2018.

Your one-liners are getting old.  Come up with REAL arguments, please.

I literally was agreeing with IceSpear, yet I get the brunt of the hate.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I haven't seen the numbers, or spending from the 2016 race but my assumption was that a late injection of money from GOP outside groups,a strong state GOP operation and Trump boosting rural turnout all gave RoJo just enough to get through- combined with Feingold's own weaknesses from past campaigns.

Walker won't have the luxury of outspending, or boosted rural turnout.

Why won't he, though? He replaces scant rural numbers with fantastic numbers in WOW...and the Kochs have him as their own personal pet project.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Working on some different Wisconsin stuff, but here is a map that averages the total votes (not %'s) of every election from 2008 on. Even though Democrats have only won 5 (08 Pres, 10 SoS, 12 Pres & 12 Sen) of the last 16, because a few of those ended up being high turnout wins, the results ended up being only 49.41-48.35 in favor of the Republicans with only a 26,351 vote differential. So this is pretty close to what an even map would look like.



I also took a look at what counties average margins were the closest to the statewide margin as an attempt to see which ones best predicted the state over the past 10 years. Here were the top-10 and their difference from the statewide average:

1. Door (0.49% more Republican)
2. Grant (1.39% more Democratic)
3. Adams (1.69% more Republican)
4. Lafayette (1.89% more Democratic)
5. Richland (2.19% more Democratic)
6. Dunn (2.16% more Republican)
7. Kenosha (3.47% more Democratic)
8. Jackson (3.53% more Democratic)
9. Trempealeau (3.64% more Democratic)
10. Columbia (3.66% more Democratic)

Not shocking, but Door County is almost the prefect swing county and quite possibly the most important county to observe on election night.

Nice map, what do you see happening in the Driftless Area? It's not particularly Rust-Belt, but it did drop off from the Dems heavily...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Another election ploy by Scott Walker: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/09/24/scott-walker-offers-50-increase-counties-fix-their-roads/1411699002/

He should've done this YEARS ago!

Pre-October surprise. This is good news for him.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:

https://twitter.com/McCormickJohn/status/1044650149048397825

Walker is smart enough to know that a bunch of Republicans feeling complacent and staying home because of muh 2016 is his worst nightmare.

Already showing more intelligence than DJT. I'm thinking those wary college educateds will be coming home.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:

https://twitter.com/McCormickJohn/status/1044650149048397825

Walker is smart enough to know that a bunch of Republicans feeling complacent and staying home because of muh 2016 is his worst nightmare.

Already showing more intelligence than DJT. I'm thinking those wary college educateds will be coming home.

Oh yes because one fundraising email will swing large amounts of voters...

Not about that one e-mail, but in general.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

I don't know why you keep bringing up this "Dems are concentrated in..." - Just look at the presidential numbers and that will give you a good idea of where Democrats can look for seats, which as useful as it is, still doesn't even include reach targets like the special elections they won:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1077872047

District 5 - Vukmir's old seat: 47.71 - 46.69 Trump seat -- Open seat
District 17: 51 - 43 Trump seat, but 56 - 42 Obama seat -- Big swing, Dems may have a shot
District 19: 50 - 43 Trump, 49 - 49 Obama/Romney


There are some other big Trump seats that were only marginal Romney seats, so depending on how you think the wave will go, and the dynamics of those seats, Democrats could pull a rabbit out of the hat in one of them. If you don't think so, keep in mind that the only reason Democrats are even competitive in the state Senate this cycle is because they pulled a rabbit out of the hat twice in big Trump / marginal Romney seats.

They also have to defend SD-01, which scares me a little bit. I'd put it as a Toss Up. Personally I feel pretty confident about SD-17, so Lean D, Vukmir might have coattails in SD-05 so I'd probably put that at Lean R, SD-19 feels like a toss up. Also depending on how much of a rural/small town resurgence there is, SD-23 could surprise, probably Likely R.

Hmm, assuming they lose SD-01 and Vukmir's seat, they're gonna need to win everything else to flip the chamber. Bad odds.

What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

I don't know why you keep bringing up this "Dems are concentrated in..." - Just look at the presidential numbers and that will give you a good idea of where Democrats can look for seats, which as useful as it is, still doesn't even include reach targets like the special elections they won:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1077872047

District 5 - Vukmir's old seat: 47.71 - 46.69 Trump seat -- Open seat
District 17: 51 - 43 Trump seat, but 56 - 42 Obama seat -- Big swing, Dems may have a shot
District 19: 50 - 43 Trump, 49 - 49 Obama/Romney


There are some other big Trump seats that were only marginal Romney seats, so depending on how you think the wave will go, and the dynamics of those seats, Democrats could pull a rabbit out of the hat in one of them. If you don't think so, keep in mind that the only reason Democrats are even competitive in the state Senate this cycle is because they pulled a rabbit out of the hat twice in big Trump / marginal Romney seats.

Thanks for enlightening Hofoid, Virginia! I don't know why they want Wisconsin to be as red as Mississippi so bad.

No, I'm glad Virginia's reminding me about state fundamentals. She's good at district-by-district analysis. I'm still extremely nervous about legislative races considering how much Dems neglected them during 2010 thinking having Obama in office was enough. Furthermore, even if they win back the chamber this year, 2020 is a presidential year and Wisconsin Dems have to fight against the headwinds of DJT being on the top of the ballot.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I believe the poll will tighten or even show Walker with a healthy lead (that's the only logical conclusion after everything since the last MU Law poll, but if not, then I'm happy for Wisconsinites everywhere.

I hope you all are right and Evers is still continuing his streak against Walker. I'm more curious about the current mood of WI voters with regard to Kavanaugh's confirmation because this will be a question asked on this week's MU law poll.

And yeah, Hofoid will say this race is getting closer if Evers is leading by less than 5 points this time.

Um, duh, isn't that the point? The unskewing will be madness if Evers doesn't maintain/widen his margin. "Evers is actually blowing this race wide open because 'muh broken roads', 'muh Dane County',  and 'muh Tammy Baldwin mega-coattails'. You guys just can't see the fundamentals." You guys are predictable.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

You must really have a low standard for a massive tightening if a two point shift is massive to you. Also, Obama got BTFO in Waukesha both elections and won them comfortably. Please delete your account, thanks.

You must be forgetting one (not-so) tiny little detail...Dems have collapsed in the Driftless since then.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

You must really have a low standard for a massive tightening if a two point shift is massive to you. Also, Obama got BTFO in Waukesha both elections and won them comfortably. Please delete your account, thanks.

You must be forgetting one (not-so) tiny little detail...Dems have collapsed in the Driftless since then.

Oh, If only there was a way to see whether of not this is still true. If only there was a primary, or some judicial election, or even just a poll broken up by region, if only we had that!

Yeah, because that is more indicative than, I dunno, a highly divisive presidential election where lines were drawn in the sand. Gee, when was the last time that happened? Can someone Wikipedia what the county map looked like for Wisconsin?

The poll hasn't released yet and you guys are already getting defensive at people posting their analysis that doesn't fit yours.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I'm waiting impatiently for the dang Marquette poll to release.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is what happens when National Dems decide that Atlanta CEO's are the new base of the party.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is what happens when National Dems decide that Atlanta CEO's are the new base of the party.

You're right. They're much better off listening to a concern troll on US Election Atlas dot org.

You have people cheerleading identity politics on the 2020 board here. Both sides do it.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

LOL Walker isn't winning while Baldwin is winning by double digits. Leans D.

Not that hard to believe.  Walker is keeping Romney margins in WOW, while having DJT numbers elsewhere.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.

Hmm, this is telling me to believe the Gold Standard over Marist.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is notable:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1052928421771137024

If anything, DJT will be a drag on Walker (who never needed him and who relies on WOW votes). Smart move from the GOP.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is notable:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1052928421771137024

If anything, DJT will be a drag on Walker (who never needed him and who relies on WOW votes). Smart move from the GOP.

OK, looks like you're back to the bargaining stage of denial...

PPP (a Dem-affiliated polling agency) held back on the Governor numbers. There was something there that was extremely uncomfortable for them. This is why Marquette is the "Gold Standard", because they weigh properly.   

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Baldwin will probably win by over 20 points at this rate. I am thinking that will be more than enough to push Bryce, Engebretson, and Liegeois over the top. Wisconsin will probably have a 6-2 Democratic delegation after this years elections.

They'll be lucky to get 4-4. This isn't '06 anymore.