FL-SEN(Quinnipiac): Nelson +7

[OneJ]

I like this poll.

It's an outlier for now, but we were getting so many tied results that it was really looking like herding.
 

Reminds me of what happened last year in Virginia. Quinnipiac is the pollster to nail the Governor race while most of the other pollsters were suggesting a very close race.

Of course we still have a long way to go, but I expected Nelson to pull it out months ago and I still expect him to so. The only question is the margin. Popular incumbent + Favorable year for specific party, especially wave year + Tossup/Generally Tilt R state = a very tough race for Scott to win in spite of him being a popular Governor.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news, let's see their Governor polla

[Gass3268]

Big if true. I think this is an outlier, but Nelson should win due to the environment and incumbency. I leave this as toss-up, but if more polls show a Nelson lead above the margin of error, this may move to lean Democratic.

No governor race poll?

Quinnipiac always breaks up their polls into parts.

[Brittain33]

Rick Scott's big red wave

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Crodstabs show Nelson winning Women, Hispanics and Black voters quite well. The white vote is split. I want to see the governor poll.

[Zaybay]

For those who are skeptic, and those who are believers, we are getting a Marist poll(another A pollster) at 5.

[Pericles]

Extremely plausible poll. Looks like all the Atlas posters thinking Scott would actually win will get egg on their face.

[MAINEiac4434]

I want to believe

[Bidenworth2020]

Yeah, I think we all knew Scott's lead wasn't gonna last. Lean D at this point.

I've never seen such open confirmation bias. This is so blatantly an outlier and you know it.

to be fair, with every other poll being pure tossup, I can see a poll like this enabling moving this to lean D.

[adrac]

Right into my veins.

[Badger]

For those who are skeptic, and those who are believers, we are getting a Marist poll(another A pollster) at 5.

Showing Nelson Up 3, FYI.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I can be Rick Scott too!



Lol

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Regardless of the state of things now, this will probably be around the final margin.

[TarHeelDem]

Regardless of the state of things now, this will probably be around the final margin.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

[Antonio the Sixth]

It looks like the polls are moving toward the fundamentals, which suggest a Nelson lead in the mid single digits. Probably would've happened earlier if so many pollsters weren't herding.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This race is so confusing but at least it doesn't look like a lost cause for Nelson anymore. I'm still not moving it out of the tossup category though.

[Sirius_]

NUT!

[GeorgiaModerate]

It looks like the polls are moving toward the fundamentals, which suggest a Nelson lead in the mid single digits. Probably would've happened earlier if so many pollsters weren't herring.

Are they fishing for results?

[Antonio the Sixth]

It looks like the polls are moving toward the fundamentals, which suggest a Nelson lead in the mid single digits. Probably would've happened earlier if so many pollsters weren't herring.

Are they fishing for results?

Typing on a phone while on the bus is tough. >_>

[IceSpear]

The astronaut bounce has finally arrived. And since there's no gravity in space, it won't come back down. Stupendous news!

In all seriousness, between this and the Marist poll it looks the political environment is finally starting to catch up to the Medicare Fraudster. Thank god. LOL at all the people who were insisting Sen. Scott was inevitable because he led in July/August polls.

[IceSpear]

Interesting how a poll from one of the few reputable pollsters polling this race is "junk." I agree that it's most likely an outlier, but the idea that this race is shifting in Nelson's favor isn't implausible.

It’s not, but a 7-point lead is a bit hard to believe, especially after their Cruz +9 (54-45) poll (which most people called an "outlier" as well). That said, I’d rather be Nelson than Scott at this point, and people might be underestimating how much the red tide problem is hurting Scott.

It's not remotely implausible that Dems could have a substantial lead in FL and Reps have a substantial lead in TX at the same time. In 2012, Nelson won 55-42 and Cruz won 56-40. That is if anything a far higher divergence (Nelson +13 and Cruz +14) than merely Nelson +7 and Cruz + 9. Both of the 2 Quinnipiac polls are consistent with the fundamentals of each state/past election results of each state, with Nelson doing a bit worse because Scott is a good candidate willing to spend millions, while Cruz is doing worse because Beto is a good candidate running in a good Dem year in TX.

Yeah, I'm going to trust Quinnipiac far more than any of these low quality junk pollsters in either FL or TX considering they stuck their neck out on the line in VA while everyone else was herding towards a toss up race.

[Sir Mohamed]

This was I expect to be Nelson's ceiling under very good circumstances. Otherweise, I think he wins by 2-5 points. Curious to see whether over- or underperforms Gillum.

[Use Your Illusion]

Didn't this same poll project Gillum +9? Give me about 3 more samples of Nelson by better than +2 before I call this anything else other than a tossup. Florida is lean R and probably always will be. I'm not going to believe that the blues are gonna be rushing out of the woodwork until I see it on election day.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

#KavanaughBump