KS-GOV: Kelly (D) 41% Kobach (R) 39% Orman (I) 9%

[Progressive Pessimist]

I’m a Kelly guy through and through, and yes, I think she’ll win by 2-4.

But enough about NH-GOV, what are your thoughts on this race?

Zing!

In all seriousness though, it's good to see Kelly ahead in a poll. Maybe this is indeed a tossup after all. It's still not good enough though. Kobach needs to lose!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Remember Chris Daggett? Yeah, me neither. I don't even know if I spelled the name right. What I can say is that this race will come down to turn out just like any other, Orman can have his single digits result and no one will care.

That was New Jersey though. We don't have very high rates of third party support. Third parties got about 6% of the vote in Kansas in 2016, while in New Jersey it was barely 2%. Orman can make an impact.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Remember Chris Daggett? Yeah, me neither. I don't even know if I spelled the name right. What I can say is that this race will come down to turn out just like any other, Orman can have his single digits result and no one will care.

That was New Jersey though. We don't have very high rates of third party support. Third parties got about 6% of the vote in Kansas in 2016, while in New Jersey it was barely 2%. Orman can make an impact.

Third parties got 2% in Kansas in 2012. That sort of thing varies based on candidates and context.

Sure but that also means that third parties did even worse in New Jersey in 2012. My point is that Chris Daggett isn't equivalent to Greg Orman who is much more well established in a state that is likely to have a fair amount of defections from both major parties.