Ukrainian presidential election, 2019

[Tender Branson]

Voting will end 8pm Kiev time (1pm EST) which I assume exit polls will come out.  Donbas will not be voting of course but it seems Donbas residents who want to vote and travel to the areas controlled by the Ukraine government.

How does this work ?

Are these people even on the lists of eligible voters ? How does Ukraine maintain population/voter information of people who are under Russian/separatist control ?

[Tender Branson]

This poll was conducted by Austrian "exit pollster" SORA, btw, who apparently also conduct them in Ukraine ...

https://twitter.com/sora_institut/status/1112406844184629254

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

Official turnout reports can be found here:

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp063pt001f01=719.html

Official results here:

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp300pt001f01=719.html

It looks as if turnout will end up between 65-70%, which is high for Ukraine standards.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the runoff:

63.4% Zelensky
36.6% Poroshenko (Inc.)

[Tender Branson]

Ze sometimes changes to Russian language.

I'm not a linguist, but for those who know both languages:

Is Ukrainian quite different to Russian or just some estranged dialect of Russian, similar to Dutch relative to Standard/High-German or Austrian-German relative to Standard/High-German ?

It would come across as very odd to Austrian voters for example if some major politician with origins in Germany would debate on TV here, speaking High-German ... because it is so distinct to our German. And vice-versa it would be weird as well.

[Tender Branson]

Ze sometimes changes to Russian language.

I'm not a linguist, but for those who know both languages:

Is Ukrainian quite different to Russian or just some estranged dialect of Russian, similar to Dutch relative to Standard/High-German or Austrian-German relative to Standard/High-German ?

Not a linguist too, but i would answer "different, but not SO different"... I never studied Ukranian, but understand 80-90% of spoken words nevertheless....

OK, so it is probably the same as Swiss German relative to Austrian German, but not relative to Standard/High-German:

While Austrians understand ca. 80-90% of what the Swiss say, the Northern Germans only understand some 20-30% of what the Swiss say when they talk plain Schwitzerdütsch ... (the Swiss notoriously have an inferiority complex when talking Swiss-German, because they think nobody understands them in Austria or Germany, which is absolutely not the case for Austrians ... but for North Germans, so they almost always try to speak High-German with us and the Germans. This results in the Swiss speaking High-German really well, better than Austrians, yet Austrians simply don't give a sh*t if North Germans understand us or not. Austrians think if someone from Hamburg wants to understand us, this person should simply learn Austrian German ... )

[Tender Branson]

Until 11am local time, turnout is a bit higher than in Round 1:

17.1% vs. 16.7%

That is based on 69/199 districts that have submitted their turnout data so far.

[Tender Branson]

Also, turnout is ca. 2x as high in the south-eastern Zelenski strongholds vs. the western Poroschenko strongholds.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout approaching 18%, now that most districts have submitted their 11am data.

I think about 2/3 voters will cast ballots today (up from 63.5% in Round 1).

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know why there are now more eligible voters in the runoff compared with the first round, despite the fact that the Ukraine has a vastly shrinking population ?

Normally, there should be fewer voters in this case ...

Runoff: 29.659.013 + 700.604 overseas voters
1st round: 29.622.527 + 682.865 overseas voters

[Tender Branson]

Interfax has created a turnout map by region for 11am:



http://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Utvzd/3/

[Tender Branson]

As a comparison, here are the regional maps showing the support for Selenski and Poroschenko in the 1st round:

[Tender Branson]

All 199 electoral districts have now reported their 3pm turnout:

45.26% (1st round: 45.11%)

So, turnout is basically unchanged at the national level.

On the regional level though, Volyn and Rivne (in the West) have seen a big drop for example.

Other than that, there is a small increase or slight decrease in most regions.

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp063pt001f01=720.html

[Tender Branson]

Here is the updated regional 3pm turnout map:

http://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Utvzd

It still remains highest in the Selenski strongholds in the South-East and Center, while the Poroschenko-strongholds in the West are lagging far behind ...

[Tender Branson]

I guess these turnout patterns finish off any chances Poroschenko had

Yeah.

I think those 70-30 Selenski polls ahead of the runoff won't be too far off the actual results.

[Tender Branson]

Another Zelensky stronghold is Transcarpathia (in the country's southwest), which has the lowest turnout in Ukraine.

True, but Zakarpatia won't make the difference here.

Correct, but why exactly do the mountain people not like Poroschenko, considering his strongholds of Lviv and suburbs are just to the North of them ?

[Tender Branson]

Exit Poll:



Not really close ...

[Tender Branson]

Here is the "National" Exit poll. Right now only in Ukranian.
http://dif-exitpoll.org.ua/


Ze's share:

West 57%
Centre 70%
South 85%
East 88%

Total 73%


In English, too, now. http://dif-exitpoll.org.ua/en

It should be noted that this exit poll takes into account responses until 6pm local time, but polls closed at 8pm.

There will be another exit poll update later on to account for the final 2 hours of voting.

[Tender Branson]

Police/election observers recorded some 1.000 cases of election irregularities, mostly small offenses like not providing a passport to vote or holding the filled-out ballot into the camera.

The last one actually led to a charge in court by Selenski himself, who waved with his filled-out ballot in front of journalists. Police filed a charge against him ...

[Tender Branson]

Lviv + suburbs (Poroschenko's best region in the 1st round) had one of the lowest turnouts in the morning.

Now, surprisingly, it has the highest turnout of all regions ...

Doesn't make a difference though, because all his other strongholds underperformed.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is largely unchanged from the 1st round:

62-63% with almost all districts reporting their numbers.

That means Zelensky will get ~14 million votes, Poroschenko ~5 million votes.

[Tender Branson]

Incumbent President Poroshenko meanwhile has accepted his defeat and has called President-elect Zelenski to congratulate him on his victory:

Volodymyr Zelensky, the winner of the second round of the presidential elections in Ukraine according to the results of exit polls, said incumbent head of state Petro Poroshenko had called him, congratulated him on his victory, and stated he was ready to provide comprehensive assistance.

"I am very grateful to the President of Ukraine, Petro Oleksiyovych Poroshenko. He has just congratulated me on my victory. I am grateful to him, he said I can count on his assistance at any time. He recognized my victory and the victory of my team," Zelensky said at a briefing on Sunday evening.

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/582736.html

[Tender Branson]

5% of the votes counted:

73.6% Zelensky
26.4% Poroshenko

Exit Polls look very accurate.

[Tender Branson]

91% of the votes counted:

74.9% Zelensky
25.1% Poroshenko

Zelensky is ahead in every region except Lviv, where Poroshenko has 63%.

Ternopil is also close, but even there Zelensky is ahead by a few points.

Zelensky's best region is Luhansk with 89% support.

[Tender Branson]

98% counted:

74.88% Zelensky
25.12% Poroshenko

Turnout: 62%