Ukrainian presidential election, 2019

[Karpatsky]

Reposting on this topic as the previous thread got merged into Individual Politics for whatever reason, where it has been buried. Here's the old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=296391.0.

There is now a second official contender: last week former governor of Donetsk Serhiy Taruta announced his candidacy. He will almost certainly be mostly irrelevant, though he will likely contribute to siphoning votes away from Boyko, lessening his chances to make it to the final round.

Recent polling continues to indicate Tymoshenko and Hrytsenko as the top two, though Poroshenko appears to have rebounded slightly from last month to the low double digits, while 'wild cards' Vakarchuk and Zelensky continue to pull 8-10% each, suggesting either (but probably not both) could be a real contender.

[Karpatsky]

A few more announcements this week.

My man Sadovyi is officially in, with the slogan of 'restoring confidence to Ukraine'. Also declared is the Agrarian party candidate Bezsmertny and the mayor of a tiny town Tereshchenko. I am doubtful either of the latter will break 1%, and Sadovyi looks like he's still stuck around 3-4%. Hopefully he runs a good campaign, but I am doubtful - Poroshenko has been working on smearing him for years now and I don't think he will get far.

Speaking of Poroshenko, he has recovered some in recent polling and now again looks like he has a decent shot at the second round. Ironically despite being so unpopular he might be one of the few candidates who could beat Tymoshenko there. Of course comparing the current hypothetical polls to reality, it depends on if a united opposition ticket emerges and what Vakarchuk and Zelenski decide to do.

[Karpatsky]

Boyko is in, with a unified OB-ZZ platform. Interestingly, this still doesn't look like it will be enough to give him a solid chance of making the second round, as Rabinovich's support has been collapsing for some time.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2018/11/17/7198528/

[Karpatsky]

Lmao, Symonenko is running again. I thought the Communist party was banned?

[Karpatsky]

At this point I'm starting to come around to Zelensky. I'm not a fan of that sort of populism in general, but Ukraine might actually benefit from it, especially if the alternatives are members of the old oligarch class like Tymoshenko and Poroshenko.

[Karpatsky]

Some news
Today Andrei Sadovyi (mayor of Lviv, had 2-3% in polls) and Dmytro Gnap (minor candidate) dropped out from the race and announced their support towards Anatoliy Hrytsenko.


There are 3 ongoing HUGE scandals in Ukrainan politics.

1) It wasn't a big secret that Pororshenko and other government officials are involved in corruption schemes around military-industrial complex. But latest journalist investigationmade it clear that top managers of Ukrainian military-industrial complex and top Poroshnko's ally (and his friend for many years) partiipated in fishy schemes.
https://www.rferl.org/a/weeks-ahead-of-ukraine-vote-poroshenko-under-fire-over-smuggling-claim/29791859.html
Btw, in few days journalists will release second part of investigation.

2) Top officials from both Poroshenko's and Tymoshenko's parties in Kherson region were accused in organizing of killing anti-corruption activist Kateryna Handziuk. Speaker of regional legislature Manger, from Tymoshenko's party, was indicted.
https://112.international/article/who-is-who-in-acid-attack-murder-of-ukrainian-activist-handziuk-36970.html
However other two guys from Poroshenko's party, governor Hordeyev and his deputy Ryshchuk for now are clear from charges.

3) Constitutional Court (controlled by government) has killed major anti-corruption law, and public is angry.
https://www.transparency.org/news/pressrelease/constitutional_court_ruling_undermines_anti_corruption_achievements_in_ukra

  RIP FF

Not that I expected Sadovyi to go anywhere, and this is a responsible move from him. It would be great were Hrytsenko bumped back up into the top tier, I would take him over the top three. Endorsed by default for now.

Another major thing going on recently is the Rada failed to pass a major defense reform which would have brought the Ukrainian army up to NATO standards. This is a major embarrassment for the government.

[Karpatsky]

Taruta has dropped out and endorsed Tymoshenko, and I've seen some argument that this will help her regain some credibility in the eastern parts of the country, though I think this is a stretch given her history and the limited appeal of Taruta in the first place.

[Karpatsky]

i hope after this election:

zelenski - president
tymoshenko - opposition
poroshenko - jail

This is probably the first and last time I will ever agree with a post you make.

[Karpatsky]

For some unknown reason, Poroshenko decided to attack (via his close ally and relative, Attorney General Lutsenko) current US Ambassador, Marie Yovanovitch.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/434875-top-ukrainian-justice-official-says-us-ambassador-gave-him-a-do-not-prosecute

Between other things, he accused head of NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau) and some MPs in working for Hillary Clinton during 2016 US election. They, with assistance of ambassador Yovanovitch, tried to damage Paul Manafort's reputation. If you read Trump's twitter, he mentioned this question several times in last days.

Really, I think it's stupid move by President Petro. He definitely doesn't like Yovanovitch, who criticized ukrainian government in the past, but accuse her of participation in crime and in conspiracy against Trump? He also hates NGO's and activists supported by Embassy, but are they that big of a threat? It's clear he tries to make alliance with Trump against State Department bureucracy, but
1) He himself supported Clinton in 2016. I doubt that Manafort's info was leaked without his authorization
2) What if Trump loses in 2020?

I wonder what the reasoning for this is. I doubt the support of people who are willing to believe the corruption in the GPO is all America's fault are going to put him over the top.

[Karpatsky]

Looks a lot more like a 2014 retread than a pre-revolutionary map, esp. in Southern Ukraine separating politically from the Donbass.

[Karpatsky]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-04/ukrainian-leader-agrees-to-debate-comic-in-stadium-before-runoff
Ukrainian Leader Agrees to Debate Comic in Stadium Before Runoff

Excellent! Does anyone with better Ukrainian language skill than me know if this will be broadcast anywhere with Russian or English translation?

[Karpatsky]

What is most interesting is the ethnic dynamics at play here. Zelensky (who is Jewish) is a creature of Igor Kolomoyskyi (a very powerful, super-rich oligarch, who also happens to be Jewish). Meanwhile, all the Bandera* loving Neo-Nazi groups are supporting Poroshenko. It will be very interesting to see how they respond to having an openly Jewish leader. Its easy to imagine there being another "Maidan"...

* Note for Westerners, Stepan Bandera was a brutal Ukrainian nationalist who collaborated with the Nazi occupation during WW2. He and his followers killed up to one million people, including tens of thousands of Jews. Bandera is beloved by all the extreme Ukrainian nationalist groups (Pravy Sektor, Svoboda, C14 etc) and Poroshenko (as well as Yushchenko back in the 2000s) pander to Bandera's fanatical followers. Even Zelensky will probably try pandering to them, if he is allowed to win (especially considering that Kolomoyskyi himself has funded Bandera-loving groups in the past).

For the reference of those of us living outside of an RT media bubble, the chance of the loud but miniscule amount of actual Ukrainian Neo-Nazis causing a 'third Maidan' is roughly comparable to the chance of the American Antifa taking the White House by storm.

[Karpatsky]

Another Zelensky stronghold is Transcarpathia (in the country's southwest), which has the lowest turnout in Ukraine.

True, but Zakarpatia won't make the difference here.

[Karpatsky]

Another Zelensky stronghold is Transcarpathia (in the country's southwest), which has the lowest turnout in Ukraine.

True, but Zakarpatia won't make the difference here.

Correct, but why exactly do the mountain people not like Poroschenko, considering his strongholds of Lviv and suburbs are just to the North of them ?

If you look back, it has always been less Western Ukrainian politically than the rest of Western Ukraine, especially clearly in 2010. Despite the username, I have not studied it extensively, though I would guess this has to do with more conflicted ethnic identity; there are a lot of Hungarians, Rusyns, Romanians, etc.