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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Should've left Pangolins alone)
  Ukrainian presidential election, 2019 (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who will make it into the second round? (2 votes)
#1
Petro Poroshenko (BPP)
 
#2
Yulia Tymoshenko (BA)
 
#3
Anatoliy Hrytsenko (GP)
 
#4
Yuri Boyko (OB)
 
#5
Vladimir Zelenski (SN)
 
#6
Svyatoslav Vakarchuk (IND)
 
#7
Oleg Lyashko (RP)
 
#8
Vadim Rabynovych (ZZ)
 
#9
Andrii Sadovyi (SP)
 
#10
Evgeny Murayev (IND)
 
#11
Other (please specify)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 57

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Ukrainian presidential election, 2019  (Read 11656 times)
jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: September 26, 2018, 08:24:30 am »

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll

Tymoshenko    19.3
Poroshenko     11.9
Zelensky         11.8   (showman/actor)
Hrytsenko       10.9   (Civic Position Party)
Vakarchuk        8.4   (singer)
Boiko               8.1   (Opposition Bloc)
Rabinovych       7.5   (Life Party)
Liashko             6.7   (Radical Party)
Sadovy             4.2   (Lviv mayor)

I am for Boiko but I guess he will not make it into the second round.  Looks like Tymoshenko will make it into the second round and a cluster of candidates fighting to make it into second round to face her.

Zelensky's surge is interesting and shows the extent of the mood against conventional politics. 
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2019, 08:52:49 am »

I think Poroshenko is most likely under-rated in these polls.   He has access to resources as the incumbent and if the non-Poroshenko field is split between many candidates and no common opposition candidate energies I think Poroshenko should be better than even money to win re-election.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2019, 02:43:50 pm »

Ukraine Has 44 Presidential Candidates in All-time Record

https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-s-44-presidential-candidates-set-all-time-record/4778722.html
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2019, 05:50:14 pm »

I am for Boyko but I would be fine if Poroshenko wins re-election
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jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2019, 06:38:32 am »

I am for Boyko but I would be fine if Poroshenko wins re-election

Interesting choices, given that Boyko is one of the most pro-Russia candidates, and Poroshenlo - one of the most anti-Russia...

Well, within the Ukraine context I am pro-Russia.  I am also pretty anti-Tymoshenko so I want Poroshenko to make it into the second round.   In many ways I like the status quo.  What I oppose the most is Ukraine joining NATO.  If Poroshenko can win perhaps the anti-incumbency feelings toward Poroshenko could somehow delay the vote to join NATO.
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jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2019, 06:48:47 am »

Voting will end 8pm Kiev time (1pm EST) which I assume exit polls will come out.  Donbas will not be voting of course but it seems Donbas residents who want to vote and travel to the areas controlled by the Ukraine government.
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jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2019, 10:49:38 am »

Voting will end 8pm Kiev time (1pm EST) which I assume exit polls will come out.  Donbas will not be voting of course but it seems Donbas residents who want to vote and travel to the areas controlled by the Ukraine government.

How does this work ?

Are these people even on the lists of eligible voters ? How does Ukraine maintain population/voter information of people who are under Russian/separatist control ?

No idea.  I imagine the Ukraine government will some way to make this work as long as proper ID can be given.  Anything else is to admit that Donbas is not part of Ukraine which has to be a big no no.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2019, 01:54:37 pm »

I guess a Zelensky vs Poroshenko runoff should see Zelensky with the edge.  But one cannot ever count the incumbent out.  I can see Poroshenko and the entire regime now turn all their energy in digging up dirt on  Zelensky.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2019, 03:20:47 pm »

0.54% Counted, 26.5K Votes:

Zelensky: 7538
Tymoshenko: 4767
Poroshenko: 4479


They are actually starting to count votes now ? It is almost midnight in Kiev
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2019, 04:05:41 pm »

Ukraine: 1.1% of Polls, 65.3K Votes

Zelensky 17,642 27%
Petroshenko 11,486 17.57%
Tymoshenko 10,719 16.4%

Others (36 Candidates): 25,509 38.3%

Lyashko is at 8.22% which seems to imply that the count is fairly biased toward Northern Ukraine since his Radical Party tends to be stronger there.  I do not think he is expected to do this well Ukraine wide.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2019, 04:41:37 pm »

Tymoshenko claims that her count based on 63.51% of the results has it at "Zelensky 28.1%, Tymoshenko 16.1%, Poroshenko 15.2%"
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2019, 04:54:12 pm »

Tymoshenko, the man, is at 0.8% right now...

Are either of them related to Marshal Semyon Timoshenko?
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2019, 06:07:21 pm »

With 9.12% in we have

Zelensky             29.48%
Petroshenko        16.96%
Tymoshenko        13.87%
Boyko                 11.08%

It seems Zelensky lead is growing but so is the Petroshenko-Tymoshenko gap
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jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2019, 07:26:42 pm »

With 17.04% in we have

Zelensky             30.08%
Petroshenko        16.65%
Tymoshenko        13.38%
Boyko                 11.41%

Zelensky and Boyko going up over time with Petroshenko and Tymoshenko going down over time.  Petroshenko-Tymoshenko gap increasing.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2019, 09:08:12 pm »

With 27.74% in we have

Zelensky             30.10%
Petroshenko        16.77%
Tymoshenko        13.25%
Boyko                 11.35%

These numbers look pretty steady now so they should pretty much be the result which would mostly match exit polls.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #15 on: April 01, 2019, 06:32:19 am »

With 79.18% in we have

Zelensky             30.41%
Petroshenko        16.05%
Tymoshenko        13.24%
Boyko                 11.54%

Note that this vote share calculation also does not filter out the around 1.18% that are invalid so the non-null vote share are all a bit higher.  Also this is Ukraine only and not vote from abroad which my understanding  leans Petroshenko. 

It seems a gap of over 14% between Zelensky  and Petroshenko  will be too large for Petroshenko to overcome even though I was always pretty positive on Petroshenko's chances.  It seems Petroshenko reaction to the results is the same old attacks on Zelensky and Kolomoyskyi which I think is already baked in" into voting intentions.  He better come up something else soon on his line of attack.  Perhaps now is a time for a renewed conflict with Russia ?
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jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #16 on: April 01, 2019, 08:25:49 am »

With 79.18% in we have

Zelensky             30.41%
Petroshenko        16.05%
Tymoshenko        13.24%
Boyko                 11.54%

Note that this vote share calculation also does not filter out the around 1.18% that are invalid so the non-null vote share are all a bit higher.  Also this is Ukraine only and not vote from abroad which my understanding  leans Petroshenko.  

It seems a gap of over 14% between Zelensky  and Petroshenko  will be too large for Petroshenko to overcome even though I was always pretty positive on Petroshenko's chances.  It seems Petroshenko reaction to the results is the same old attacks on Zelensky and Kolomoyskyi which I think is already baked in" into voting intentions.  He better come up something else soon on his line of attack.  Perhaps now is a time for a renewed conflict with Russia ?

In REAL conflict Russia would almost surely crush him. He needs "good imitation" of conflict, but still - imitation....

Of course.  I think the best way is some sort of standoff in  Donbass like troops from both sides face to face with some shooting here or there for some strategic spot.  Ideally for  Petroshenko  the standoff lasts for 2 weeks or so before the runoff.  Then Petroshenko  can have all sorts of threatening speeches and military parades and drown out any news of Zelensky in the media.  The election then becomes a Petroshenko vs Putin race.
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jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2019, 06:37:03 am »

It seems to me Zelenskiy is better off with Timoshenko not endorsing him for the second round or else it might stain his outsider new politics image.
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jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,143
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #18 on: April 21, 2019, 09:37:52 am »

I guess these turnout patterns finish off any chances Poroschenko had
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