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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Ukrainian presidential election, 2019
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Poll
Question: Who will make it into the second round? (2 votes)
#1
Petro Poroshenko (BPP)
 
#2
Yulia Tymoshenko (BA)
 
#3
Anatoliy Hrytsenko (GP)
 
#4
Yuri Boyko (OB)
 
#5
Vladimir Zelenski (SN)
 
#6
Svyatoslav Vakarchuk (IND)
 
#7
Oleg Lyashko (RP)
 
#8
Vadim Rabynovych (ZZ)
 
#9
Andrii Sadovyi (SP)
 
#10
Evgeny Murayev (IND)
 
#11
Other (please specify)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 57

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Ukrainian presidential election, 2019  (Read 11863 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #50 on: March 31, 2019, 10:32:43 am »

Ukraine needs someone who will mercilessly break the power of the oligarchs and strike a unique, quintessentially Ukrainian geopolitical balance between Moscow and Brussels, while opposing Russia's territorial imperialism and the EU's cultural imperialism alike. None of the major candidates will do so, which is depressing. So I would vote for a nationalist candidate in the first round. And probably for Zelenskiy in the second round while holding my nose.
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jaichind
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« Reply #51 on: March 31, 2019, 10:49:38 am »

Voting will end 8pm Kiev time (1pm EST) which I assume exit polls will come out.  Donbas will not be voting of course but it seems Donbas residents who want to vote and travel to the areas controlled by the Ukraine government.

How does this work ?

Are these people even on the lists of eligible voters ? How does Ukraine maintain population/voter information of people who are under Russian/separatist control ?

No idea.  I imagine the Ukraine government will some way to make this work as long as proper ID can be given.  Anything else is to admit that Donbas is not part of Ukraine which has to be a big no no.
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Russian Bear
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« Reply #52 on: March 31, 2019, 10:56:43 am »
« Edited: March 31, 2019, 11:13:56 am by Russian Bear »

Voting will end 8pm Kiev time (1pm EST) which I assume exit polls will come out.  Donbas will not be voting of course but it seems Donbas residents who want to vote and travel to the areas controlled by the Ukraine government.

Correct. Also, those Ukrainians who currently live in Russia have to travel to Finland, Kazakhstan or Georgia in order to vote.


Also, Mustafa Nayyem seems to leak some exit polls from different candidates. According to them Ze and Poroshenko goes to the 2nd round. Only exit polls from Ti shows her second.

The average (my veeeery quick estimation of it) will be around:
Ze ≈ 28%
Po ≈ 20%
Ti ≈ 15%

He also says there are rumors that Ze and Ti are negotiating/discussing/working together on some sort of cooperation/coalition.

https://t.me/mustafanayyem (you'll probably need Telegram app to open it, though...)
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АndriуValeriovich
andjey
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« Reply #53 on: March 31, 2019, 11:58:32 am »

I still hope that Zelensky and Tymoshenko we will see in second round. In less than 5 minutes, we will get the results exit polls
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АndriуValeriovich
andjey
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« Reply #54 on: March 31, 2019, 12:03:02 pm »

Exit polls show that Zelensky and Poroshenko will make second round. I am very sad
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Russian Bear
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« Reply #55 on: March 31, 2019, 12:04:54 pm »
« Edited: March 31, 2019, 12:13:51 pm by Russian Bear »

The preliminary exit polls results (those who vote 08:00-18:00).


Ze 30,4%
Po 17,8%
Ti 14,2%


The 08:00-20:00 will be published in 3 hours.





Here the exit poll from 112 and newsone tv-channels.


And one from SOCIS:



I don't know how good they usually are, but Timoshenko's chances seems really bad.
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АndriуValeriovich
andjey
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« Reply #56 on: March 31, 2019, 12:30:40 pm »

The results were rigged by the current President, Petro Poroshenko. I am personally convinced of this
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mgop
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« Reply #57 on: March 31, 2019, 12:31:34 pm »

The results were rigged by the current President, Petro Poroshenko. I am personally convinced of this

don't worry, he's done in second round
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АndriуValeriovich
andjey
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« Reply #58 on: March 31, 2019, 12:39:47 pm »

The results were rigged by the current President, Petro Poroshenko. I am personally convinced of this

don't worry, he's done in second round
I understand, but I would like to see President Tymoshenko, not a comedian Zelensky
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #59 on: March 31, 2019, 12:41:55 pm »


This poll was conducted by Austrian "exit pollster" SORA, btw, who apparently also conduct them in Ukraine ...

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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #60 on: March 31, 2019, 12:44:34 pm »

Puppet of oligarch who had some shady deals in Russia and used tax havens vs oligarch vs oligarch. Ukraine at its finest.
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PSOL
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« Reply #61 on: March 31, 2019, 12:47:56 pm »

The results were rigged by the current President, Petro Poroshenko. I am personally convinced of this

don't worry, he's done in second round
I understand, but I would like to see President Tymoshenko, not a comedian Zelensky
If Tymoshenko’s party gets a majority this year, and if the Ukrainian people organize for the interest of Ukraine, you can probably weather this storm out. These flukes happen, it is always the responsibility of the people to not give up the search for justice no matter what happens electorally. Vote for her next election and ensure your people’s struggle since EuroMaidan isn’t co-opted and crushed by the thieves and cheaters behind the curtain.
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kelestian
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« Reply #62 on: March 31, 2019, 12:52:09 pm »

The results were rigged by the current President, Petro Poroshenko. I am personally convinced of this

don't worry, he's done in second round
I understand, but I would like to see President Tymoshenko, not a comedian Zelensky

She can easily win parliamentary elections.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #63 on: March 31, 2019, 12:55:09 pm »

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PSOL
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« Reply #64 on: March 31, 2019, 12:56:04 pm »

I wonder, does Ukraine have a functioning impeachment policy for the presidency. How are constitutional balances faring since EuroMaidan if the runoff winner turns incompetent and malicious.
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kelestian
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« Reply #65 on: March 31, 2019, 12:57:49 pm »

I wonder, does Ukraine have a functioning impeachment policy for the presidency. How are constitutional balances faring since EuroMaidan if the runoff winner turns incompetent and malicious.

There is no law about impeachment now. Zelenskiy promised to introduce such law.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #66 on: March 31, 2019, 01:04:07 pm »

BTW:

Official turnout reports can be found here:

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp063pt001f01=719.html

Official results here:

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp300pt001f01=719.html

It looks as if turnout will end up between 65-70%, which is high for Ukraine standards.
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Russian Bear
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« Reply #67 on: March 31, 2019, 01:30:52 pm »

BTW:

Official turnout reports can be found here:

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp063pt001f01=719.html

Official results here:

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp300pt001f01=719.html

It looks as if turnout will end up between 65-70%, which is high for Ukraine standards.

1999 - 70%
2004 - 75%
2010 - 67%
2014 - 60% (but Donetsk and to some degree Lugansk had really low turnout)


2019 - Huh around 65% Huh


I don't know if you can call it high, probably normal?
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jaichind
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« Reply #68 on: March 31, 2019, 01:54:37 pm »

I guess a Zelensky vs Poroshenko runoff should see Zelensky with the edge.  But one cannot ever count the incumbent out.  I can see Poroshenko and the entire regime now turn all their energy in digging up dirt on  Zelensky.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #69 on: March 31, 2019, 01:58:08 pm »

RIP the Godmother of Ukrainian Corruption.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #70 on: March 31, 2019, 01:59:50 pm »

Puppet of oligarch who had some shady deals in Russia and used tax havens vs oligarch vs oligarch. Ukraine at its finest.
This is basically all there is to say. It's a sad day. But it was destined to be a sad day.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #71 on: March 31, 2019, 03:16:51 pm »

0.54% Counted, 26.5K Votes:

Zelensky: 7538
Tymoshenko: 4767
Poroshenko: 4479
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jaichind
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« Reply #72 on: March 31, 2019, 03:20:47 pm »

0.54% Counted, 26.5K Votes:

Zelensky: 7538
Tymoshenko: 4767
Poroshenko: 4479


They are actually starting to count votes now ? It is almost midnight in Kiev
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #73 on: March 31, 2019, 03:26:47 pm »

0.54% Counted, 26.5K Votes:

Zelensky: 7538
Tymoshenko: 4767
Poroshenko: 4479


They are actually starting to count votes now ? It is almost midnight in Kiev

Yeah, the link posted earlier is getting data now.

Also Poroshenko is now ahead by about 20 votes, but this is all very early...and slow.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #74 on: March 31, 2019, 03:55:58 pm »

Ukraine: 1.1% of Polls, 65.3K Votes

Zelensky 17,642 27%
Petroshenko 11,486 17.57%
Tymoshenko 10,719 16.4%

Others (36 Candidates): 25,509 38.3%
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