Ukrainian presidential election, 2019

[kelestian]

Fun fact: the worst district for Poroshenko was Bolhrad district in Odessa region(3.82%). And it is his birthplace!
Not surprising, so: before 2014, it was very pro-eastern, and its population: 57% Bulgarians, 17% Gagauzes, 16% Russians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolhrad_Raion

Another sign of terrible Poroshenko's performance with ethnic minorities: the best district for Zelenskiy (51,13%) was Berehove district in  Zakarpattia region, 76% of population are Hungarians, 18,8% Ruthenians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berehove_Raion

[kelestian]

Another interesting fact: debates could be bad for Zelenskiy because... his Ukrainian language is bad! Usually he speaks Russian, only in some pre-scripted videos he spoke in Ukrainian. He said he has started Ukrainian about 2-3 years ago. Also his English is just terrible.

 

What did Poroshenko do to piss people off ?

Failed people's expectations. You know. only Kuchma of all Ukrainian presidents was re-elected (with major falsifications), so nothing strange here. People wanted better economic situation, raising of wages etc. They got tariff increasing. Honestly, i don't think Poroshenko could do anything big to improve economy. Demographics, geopolitics, local politics, history etc are too strong to radically change path of the country.

However, Poroshenko could do something against corruption. Unfortunately, he didn't. His closest allies are involved in corrupt schemes, but even his enemies were not prosecuted.

Third thing is ethnonationalism, which alienated eastern electorate.

[kelestian]

https://www.twitch.tv/mortis_gamer Debates with english translation, will start at 19-00 (GMT+3)

Also will be broadcasted on many ukrainian and russian tv-channels.

[kelestian]

not a very credible pollster (Dragomanov centre), numbers very different from most respected firms (KIIS, Rating). I don't think we should pay much attention to this (and only pro-Poroshenko media are paying it now)

New poll shows:
Zelensky 54%
Poroshenko 44%

Much closer, then previous. Why such change?

links for debates in Ukrainian/Russian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9oEAXL1qE8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ei1_hzGpBQc

[kelestian]

Very good performance from Zelenskiy. Average from Poroshenko

[kelestian]

What is most interesting is the ethnic dynamics at play here. Zelensky (who is Jewish) is a creature of Igor Kolomoyskyi (a very powerful, super-rich oligarch, who also happens to be Jewish). Meanwhile, all the Bandera* loving Neo-Nazi groups are supporting Poroshenko. It will be very interesting to see how they respond to having an openly Jewish leader. Its easy to imagine there being another "Maidan"...

* Note for Westerners, Stepan Bandera was a brutal Ukrainian nationalist who collaborated with the Nazi occupation during WW2. He and his followers killed up to one million people, including tens of thousands of Jews. Bandera is beloved by all the extreme Ukrainian nationalist groups (Pravy Sektor, Svoboda, C14 etc) and Poroshenko (as well as Yushchenko back in the 2000s) pander to Bandera's fanatical followers. Even Zelensky will probably try pandering to them, if he is allowed to win (especially considering that Kolomoyskyi himself has funded Bandera-loving groups in the past).

From what i see, noone talks about Zelenskiy jewish heritage. However rightwingers are infuriate by the fact that he is primarily Russian-speaking.


Some observations about Ukrainian Far-right: they are not about antisemitism at all. Yes, those groups glorified many antisemitic figures from the past (from Bandera to Corneliu Zelea Codreanu), but don't focused on antisemitic views of those figures. Main enemies of far-right groups are: migrants (but there aren't a lot of them in Ukraine), romani people, ethnic minorities like Russian and Hungarian, USSR heritage. Also there are special far-right groups (like Tradition and Order) which are focused on anti-LGBT/anti-feminism activities.

[kelestian]

Also, turnout is ca. 2x as high in the south-eastern Zelenski strongholds vs. the western Poroschenko strongholds.

not enough data so far. Usually, Western Ukraine votes later (many people go to church in the morning)

[kelestian]

Some maps.

Winner of electoral district

Poroshenko won 1 district in Ivano-Franhivsk region (city of Ivano-Franhivsk), two districts in Ternopol region (city of Ternopol and suburbs) and all districts in Lviv region.

Voting abroad (Poroshenko won with 56%)
Not much people voted outside of Ukraine. Only in 6 countries (Poland, Czechia, Germany, USA, Spain, Italy) more than 1000 votes.

USA - Poroshenko 72%
Canada - Poroshenko 74%
UK - Poroshenko 70%
Italy - Poroshenko 62%
Portugal - Poroshenko 58%
Spain - Poroshenko 56%
Germany - Poroshenko 55%
Israel - Poroshenko 50.46%
Poland - Zelensky 51%
Czechia - Zelensky 59%

[kelestian]

Interesting that some districts near the secessionist Donbass conflict zone appear to be tight.

Do you think this is because of vote rigging there, or maybe because many nationalist pro-Poroshenko soldiers are stationed and voting there ?

Probably second. Those districts are only partially controlled by Kiev, so soldiers can be majority of voters there.
Reports: Poroshenko won about 50% of soldiers' votes, Zelensky 46% (regiments deployed in Donbass)


Interactive map (by precincts)
https://elections.dekoder.org/ukraine/en

[kelestian]

Finally, some maps by administrative districts.



Change of Poro's % of votes in districts, second round (compared to first round)


You can clear see where falsifications in the first round were: in some districts in Donetsk region Poro's vote share fell by 10%!

[kelestian]

Is there such a map for change in Zelensky's vote share?