FL-SEN(Quinnipiac): Nelson +7

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1044633205251411969

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

This is definitely an outlier, all indications are it's a tied race, unless more polling comes out verifying Quinnipiac this is an outlier

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1044629912286625792

[Politician]

Interesting how Atlas is writing off a poll from one of the nation's best pollsters as an "outlier" because they don't believe it to be plausible. When those "Scott +6" polls came out from far worse pollsters nobody was complaining.

[Yank2133]

No

Yes.

[john cage bubblegum]

It's an outlier for now, but we were getting so many tied results that it was really looking like herding.
  
It's reasonable to keep this race as a toss-up based on the polling, but I consider Nelson a pretty heavy favorite to win.  In this sort of a race, Florida is almost always going to go as the national environment goes, especially with Nelson as the incumbent in a wave midterm.

[Beet]

It's closer than this, but giving a slight edge to Nelson for now.

[Blair]

Nelson sliding into the lead like

[ajc0918]

I wonder what impact this will have on this race. It's very likely more college students will be voting than prior elections due to on campus early voting precincts.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1043594514890469378

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow, Gillum is ahead 55-44 or something.

[Skye]

Interesting how Atlas is writing off a poll from one of the nation's best pollsters as an "outlier" because they don't believe it to be plausible. When those "Scott +6" polls came out from far worse pollsters nobody was complaining.

UNF, a fairly good pollster, did a poll that showed a tie, and the last few polls have been very close. Maybe it's an outlier, or maybe it'll indicate a new trend. Dunno.

The race is still a tossup, but under the environment, I'd rather be Nelson than Scott. A shame.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Outstanding freedom poll.

[mds32]

This poll flies in the face of conventional wisdom.

[Zaybay]

Would just like to note that the previous Quinnipiac poll, done around 8/30-9/3, found the race tied, 49-49.

Their previous poll was one out of 6 to show a statistical tie, along with:

Gravis: tied

SurveyUSA: Scott+2

Ramussen: Nelson +1

FAU: Scott+1

UNF: tied

[ajc0918]

This poll flies in the face of conventional wisdom.

Not really. Next.

[Hindsight was 2020]

As always, Quinnipiac always exaggerates the leads.

I know remember when they had Ralph Northam up 9?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Interesting how Atlas is writing off a poll from one of the nation's best pollsters as an "outlier" because they don't believe it to be plausible. When those "Scott +6" polls came out from far worse pollsters nobody was complaining.

It is just like TX-SEN, people ignoring Quinnipiac and trusting in a large group of low quality pollsters that are all herding together.

[Sestak]

As always, Quinnipiac always exaggerates the leads.

I know remember when they had Ralph Northam up 9?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nelson sliding into the lead like

More like Gillum hauling him

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

As always, Quinnipiac always exaggerates the leads.

I know remember when they had Ralph Northam up 9?

I know, remember when they had Ted Cruz up 9 also?

[TheRocketRaccoon]

I mean, QU has experience polling FL, but this year is their first cycle in TX. I'm not saying they might get the TX electorate off, but it isn't outside the realm of possibility.

[MT Treasurer]

Interesting how a poll from one of the few reputable pollsters polling this race is "junk." I agree that it's most likely an outlier, but the idea that this race is shifting in Nelson's favor isn't implausible.

It’s not, but a 7-point lead is a bit hard to believe, especially after their Cruz +9 (54-45) poll (which most people called an "outlier" as well). That said, I’d rather be Nelson than Scott at this point, and people might be underestimating how much the red tide problem is hurting Scott.

[KingSweden]

Well then

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Interesting how a poll from one of the few reputable pollsters polling this race is "junk." I agree that it's most likely an outlier, but the idea that this race is shifting in Nelson's favor isn't implausible.

It’s not, but a 7-point lead is a bit hard to believe, especially after their Cruz +9 (54-45) poll (which most people called an "outlier" as well). That said, I’d rather be Nelson than Scott at this point, and people might be underestimating how much the red tide problem is hurting Scott.

It's not remotely implausible that Dems could have a substantial lead in FL and Reps have a substantial lead in TX at the same time. In 2012, Nelson won 55-42 and Cruz won 56-40. That is if anything a far higher divergence (Nelson +13 and Cruz +14) than merely Nelson +7 and Cruz + 9. Both of the 2 Quinnipiac polls are consistent with the fundamentals of each state/past election results of each state, with Nelson doing a bit worse because Scott is a good candidate willing to spend millions, while Cruz is doing worse because Beto is a good candidate running in a good Dem year in TX.

[President Johnson]

Big if true. I think this is an outlier, but Nelson should win due to the environment and incumbency. I leave this as toss-up, but if more polls show a Nelson lead above the margin of error, this may move to lean Democratic.

No governor race poll?