MT-SEN (Gravis): Tester + 4
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:15:41 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  MT-SEN (Gravis): Tester + 4
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: MT-SEN (Gravis): Tester + 4  (Read 2331 times)
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 25, 2018, 08:46:36 AM »

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_September_25_2018.pdf

Same Poll has Gianforte + 9 over Williams

This Race has tightened up considerably.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2018, 08:49:00 AM »

This isn't gonna be easy, it's a pure tossup now
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2018, 08:49:09 AM »

Might be surprising, but Im not going to take this poll rather seriously. There is just...something about this poll that makes me want to trash it. I cant think of what it is, but its there. Its almost like I can sense its presence.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2018, 08:49:39 AM »

Might be surprising, but Im not going to take this poll rather seriously. There is just...something about this poll that makes me want to trash it. I cant think of what it is, but its there. Its almost like I can sense its presence.

Does it start with a G and end with an S?
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,454
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2018, 08:51:33 AM »

Tilt D.

Too bad Gianforte leads by 9. This is lean R.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2018, 08:54:45 AM »

MT-AL results:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_September_25_2018.pdf

Anyway, a MT Democrat winning by 4?! When has that ever happened before? Tongue The Senate numbers are believable, the House numbers... less so. It’s better than their last poll, but that’s a very low bar.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2018, 08:56:43 AM »

MT-AL results:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_September_25_2018.pdf

Anyway, a MT Democrat winning by 4?! When has that ever happened before? Tongue The Senate numbers are believable, the House numbers... less so. It’s better than their last poll, but that’s a very low bar.

I don’t believe 17% of Democrats voting for Greg Gianforte for a second, but it’s Gravis so I shouldn’t expect much.
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2018, 08:59:20 AM »

Tilt D.

Too bad Gianforte leads by 9. This is lean R.

LOL, it's a Toss Up now.

Trump won Montana by 21 Points in 2016. That means something. If Tester wins he is going to win it because Trump Voters staying home.

And why are Trump Voters staying home: Because the Democrats blocking Kavernaugh!
Logged
TheRocketRaccoon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 761
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2018, 09:02:29 AM »

Tilt D.

Too bad Gianforte leads by 9. This is lean R.

LOL, it's a Toss Up now.

Trump won Montana by 21 Points in 2016. That means something. If Tester wins he is going to win it because Trump Voters staying home.

And why are Trump Voters staying home: Because the Democrats blocking Kavernaugh!

This is high quality analysis
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2018, 09:05:14 AM »

Daines won his race big, and Foxx is gonna be Gov. I know 2016, was Clinton's fault but Tester failed to get the Dems the Majority
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2018, 09:09:25 AM »

>GRAVIS
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2018, 09:16:50 AM »

Despite the believable toplines for both races... it’s Gravis, guys
Logged
😥
andjey
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,510
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2018, 09:27:39 AM »

Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2018, 09:28:19 AM »

Junk with believable numbers. Hmmmm...
Logged
GM Team Member and Senator WB
weatherboy1102
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -7.83

P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2018, 09:33:34 AM »

g r a v i s

but this is at least somewhat believable, except the house result. Still gonna take it with a grain of salt.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,454
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2018, 09:39:23 AM »

Tilt D.

Too bad Gianforte leads by 9. This is lean R.

LOL, it's a Toss Up now.

Trump won Montana by 21 Points in 2016. That means something. If Tester wins he is going to win it because Trump Voters staying home.

And why are Trump Voters staying home: Because the Democrats blocking Kavernaugh!

You ever heard of Steve Bullock and his electoral history?

MT is an elastic state in down-ballot races and Tester a popular incumbent running for reelection in a favorable environment against a low-profile challenger. Tester is safer than Nelson, Heitkamp or McCaskill.
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,448
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2018, 09:56:18 AM »

Lean D race is Lean D.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2018, 10:05:43 AM »

WHAT'S EVERYONE COMPLAINING BOUT?! Tester by 4 is a decent result for us, and sounds realistic.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2018, 10:06:19 AM »

MT-AL results:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_September_25_2018.pdf

Anyway, a MT Democrat winning by 4?! When has that ever happened before? Tongue The Senate numbers are believable, the House numbers... less so. It’s better than their last poll, but that’s a very low bar.

I don’t believe 17% of Democrats voting for Greg Gianforte for a second, but it’s Gravis so I shouldn’t expect much.

Their crosstabs can be very weird, I honestly wouldn’t pay any attention to them. But yeah, I know this forum is convinced that Montana is the most elaaaaaaaastic state in the country, but I’d be very surprised if Gianforte did 13 points better than Rosendale. Obviously there will be no shortage of Tester/Gianforte voters (and let’s be honest here: Williams' first name doesn’t help), but Gianforte, while not an extremely weak incumbent, isn’t exactly someone with a lot of crossover appeal, and I fail to see in which areas of the state he’s going to do much better than last time around. My current prediction is Tester +3, Gianforte +5/6, and I wouldn’t call either race "safe" for the incumbent (Lean D and R, respectively, is a fair rating at this point IMO).

Also, I’m not sure where this idea that Fox is the electoral savior of the MT Republican Party who will make MT-GOV 2020 Safe R comes from.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2018, 10:08:08 AM »

Anyways, Tilt D.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2018, 10:27:50 AM »

"Tester's Numbers Beginning to Sink Amidst Trump Attention"? I doubt he was ever ahead by more than 4 or 5 points in this race.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2018, 10:42:25 AM »

Of course Gravis would only poll Garfield County...
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2018, 10:47:40 AM »

Of course Gravis would only poll Garfield County...

They probably only polled pro-life, gun-owning, hardcore Republicans from Winnett.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2018, 11:15:25 AM »

Essentially the undecideds.

http://www.mtpr.org/post/trump-voters-not-necessarily-slam-dunk-republicans-montana#stream/0

Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2018, 11:23:16 AM »

Tilt D.

Too bad Gianforte leads by 9. This is lean R.

LOL, it's a Toss Up now.

Trump won Montana by 21 Points in 2016. That means something. If Tester wins he is going to win it because Trump Voters staying home.

And why are Trump Voters staying home: Because the Democrats blocking Kavernaugh!

If you're saying that 2016's margin proves Montana has gotten more Republican-leaning or something, I don't really buy that:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana,_2000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana,_2004

It's not the first time it voted >20 points for the Republican. I think 2008 and 2012 just misled people a bit and they forgot that Montana is usually a considerably Republican state at the presidential level but competitive in other statewide races.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 13 queries.