GA-Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group(D)- Abrams+6
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Author Topic: GA-Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group(D)- Abrams+6  (Read 1983 times)
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 23, 2018, 06:53:25 PM »

An internal for Abrams released these results(Likely Voters):

Abrams(D)- 48%

Kemp(R)- 42%

Metz(L)- 3%

https://secure.staceyabrams.com/page/-/2018_September/Email/Polling%20Memo%20from%20Garin%20Hart%20Yang.pdf
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2018, 06:54:16 PM »

> internal

This is probably still a tossup.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2018, 06:55:17 PM »

Kemp's only saving grace is that he isn't as polarizing as DeSantis.
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2018, 07:01:35 PM »

The final result will be 51-47-2 Abrams
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Politician
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2018, 07:02:47 PM »

N U T, but still worth taking with a grain of salt.

Abrams might be running one of the best campaigns this cycle.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2018, 07:03:21 PM »

No.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2018, 07:05:41 PM »

Great news
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2018, 07:18:30 PM »

I want to believe.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2018, 07:23:06 PM »

States are gonna go against norm and GILLUM is good position as well😀,
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2018, 07:46:21 PM »

I think is Abrams is already over 50...but Kemp is somewhere around 46-47.

In short, I don't think are that many undecided voters left.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2018, 07:54:45 PM »

GHY is a good Democratic internal pollster, but they do have a bias. Halve the margin and that's probably a more realistic indicator of where we are currently (aka the Danger Zone™).
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2018, 08:03:53 PM »

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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2018, 08:49:57 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2018, 08:55:22 PM by RFKFan68 »

I think is Abrams is already over 50...but Kemp is somewhere around 46-47.

In short, I don't think are that many undecided voters left.
Correct. Republicans have been spending millions throwing punches that aren’t landing. Abrams is racking up thousands of votes as we speak through her VBM initiative and booming population centers are itching to go to the polls for her. Abrams is running the biggest field operation in this state’s history. I plan to move this to Tilt D once we start getting absentee and early vote numbers.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2018, 08:57:58 PM »

God a gubernatorial runoff in Georgia is going to be a nasty, expensive fight. Kemp will no doubt go nuclear with toxic ads and probably dirty tricks, while massive amounts of cash are airlifted into the state by hyper-excited Democratic activists and depressed Republican billionaires eager to win something after licking their wounds from November 6th.

I feel good about an Abrams win in a runoff though. Democrats have excelled in lower-turnout elections so far, and since this isn't a presidential election, I don't think a big win by Democrats in the GE is going to suck the air out of the wave. Trump will still be in office, and he'll still be pissing off voters big time. The question is whether Georgia is ripe enough to send a Democrat to the govs mansion.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2018, 09:13:52 PM »

Democratic internal polls shouldn’t be taken at face value, but yeah, it has been obvious since 2016 that this race is fairly competitive. This is a Trump +5 state with a very high D floor that’s trending strongly Democratic, after all.
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Cold War Liberal
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« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2018, 09:17:13 PM »

N U T, but still worth taking with a grain of salt.

Abrams might be running one of the best campaigns this cycle.
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2018, 09:18:00 PM »

God a gubernatorial runoff in Georgia is going to be a nasty, expensive fight. Kemp will no doubt go nuclear with toxic ads and probably dirty tricks, while massive amounts of cash are airlifted into the state by hyper-excited Democratic activists and depressed Republican billionaires eager to win something after licking their wounds from November 6th.

I feel good about an Abrams win in a runoff though. Democrats have excelled in lower-turnout elections so far, and since this isn't a presidential election, I don't think a big win by Democrats in the GE is going to suck the air out of the wave. Trump will still be in office, and he'll still be pissing off voters big time. The question is whether Georgia is ripe enough to send a Democrat to the govs mansion.
Fortunately Abrams will win outright on November 6. I think she's going to clear 1.4 million and Kemp will do a tad worse than the 1.34 million Deal got in 2014.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2018, 09:18:41 PM »

I think it's probably more like 48-46 Abrams, she just needs that last 2%. Hopefully she can find it in the pool of unregistered voters and rurals.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2018, 09:30:55 PM »

Abrams is probably ahead 1-3% right now.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2018, 09:31:51 PM »

God a gubernatorial runoff in Georgia is going to be a nasty, expensive fight. Kemp will no doubt go nuclear with toxic ads and probably dirty tricks, while massive amounts of cash are airlifted into the state by hyper-excited Democratic activists and depressed Republican billionaires eager to win something after licking their wounds from November 6th.

I feel good about an Abrams win in a runoff though. Democrats have excelled in lower-turnout elections so far, and since this isn't a presidential election, I don't think a big win by Democrats in the GE is going to suck the air out of the wave. Trump will still be in office, and he'll still be pissing off voters big time. The question is whether Georgia is ripe enough to send a Democrat to the govs mansion.

I see what you did there.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2018, 10:53:37 PM »

So it's still probably a tie.
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Xing
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« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2018, 11:05:47 PM »

It's an internal, but I could buy Abrams being at 48%. The question is whether or not she can get to 50%, though.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2018, 11:18:29 PM »

Nothing matters if Abrams can't get above 50%.
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Beet
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« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2018, 11:32:12 PM »

Looks about right. Abrams will win.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2018, 01:37:25 AM »

If ABRAMS and GILLUM win, CORDRAY and SISOLAK should look fine, I don't see how Dems win in more rural states before they win in the more urban states, as well as Iowa usually votes with Ohio
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