For fun, let's try and predict the maps for the next six elections (user search)
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  For fun, let's try and predict the maps for the next six elections (search mode)
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Author Topic: For fun, let's try and predict the maps for the next six elections  (Read 14646 times)
Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,652
« on: September 23, 2018, 06:07:12 PM »

Hmmm... I'm seeing 2 general themes here.

Scenario 1 (more likely IMO)

2020



Trump wins the EC with more room to spare than in 2016.  This would be a 1.5-3% Trump PV win.  Democrats hold the House.  Republicans either hold or take back the Senate.

2024



The economy severely deteriorates during Trump's 2nd term.  This is a slightly bigger Dem PV win than Obama 2008.

2028



Easy Dem reelection in improving economy.  1st double digit PV win since 1984.

2032



4%ish Dem PV win, the curse is broken.

2036



1.5% GOP PV win, EC win only after recount in NC (because TX has many more EVs by then).

2040



GOP incumbent reelected, 3-4% PV win
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Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,652
« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2020, 07:03:07 PM »

2020



Biden/Harris 51% 325 EV
Trump/Pence 45% 213 EV

2024



Carlson/Hawley 49% 305ish EV
Harris/Polis 48% 233ish EV

2028



Carlson/Hawley 51% 345ish EV
Duckworth/Warnock 47% 213ish EV

2032



Dwayne Johnson/D Governor of Texas 290ish EV 47.5%
Hawley/R Governor of PA 248ish EV 48.5%

2036



Dwayne Johnson/Former D Governor of Texas 400ish EV 55%
R Senator from Michigan/R Governor of Tennessee 138ish EV 44%



VP (Former D Governor of Texas)/D Governor of NC 300ish EV 50%
R Businessman from Maine/R Senator from Florida 238ish 48%

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