For fun, let's try and predict the maps for the next six elections

[Ferguson97]

Skipping the maps:

2020: Biden defeats Trump in a decisive, if not landslide, victory.

2024: VP Harris is nominated after Biden retires after one term and goes on to defeat former VP Pence by a comfortable margin.

2028:  President Harris defeats former FL Governor Ron DeSantis.

2032: Harris' VP is defeated by a currently unknown moderate Republican Senator or Governor elected sometime in the 2020's.

2036: Incumbent Republican president is reelected.

2040:  Currently unknown Democrat is elected.

pretty much this

[Ferguson97]

Joe Kennedy defeats sitting VP in largest landslide since 84

Gretchen, stop trying to make Joe Kennedy happen. It's not going to happen.

[Ferguson97]

I'm too lazy to make maps but I'll just give my timeline with current EC totals.

2020 - Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump 325-213

2024 - Kamala Harris defeats Ted Cruz 277-261

2028 - Kamala Harris defeats Josh Hawley 365-173

2032 - Matt Gaetz defeats Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 287-251

2036 - Ayanna Pressley defeats Matt Gaetz 368-170

2040 - Ayanna Pressley defeats Elise Stefanik 397-141

My general theory: With a dominant Joe win in a few weeks - America will start to undergo a massive leftward shift. With changing demographics, dying boomers, and changing social values, the GOP is in for a few decades of hurt. Around 2032 or so, as I have, the Dems try to go a little bit too far left, and lose a close election. However, the Democrats quickly recover, and the Sanders/Establishment wings of the parties end their clash around 2036 or so - uniting around a balanced candidate like Rep. Pressley - to dominate American politics for decades to come.

Trump really f****d this party over.

Democrats winning 7/9 elections between 2008 and 2040 would be a goddamn dream

[Ferguson97]

2024

President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) - 303 EV / 52% PV
Fmr. President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Mrs. Kari Lake (R-AZ) - 235 EV / 47% PV

The Republicans, against all common sense, have nominated Trump for a third time. He doubles down on election denial and other unpopular MAGA policies. The economy mostly recovers by 2024, and House Republicans mostly focus on Hunter Biden's laptop instead of demonstrating a clear agenda. Biden wins with the exact same electoral map as 2020 and a slightly larger popular vote margin.


2028

President Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA) - 255 EV / 49% PV
Fmr. Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) / Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) - 283 EV / 50% PV

Biden resigns in 2026 after suffering a stroke, making Kamala Harris the first woman to ever be President of the United States. Though she hopes that the incumbency advantage and decent economy will help her, the fatigue of eight years of a Democrat in the White House (and actually 16 out of the last 20 years) sets in combined with Harris' relative unpopularity paves with way for a DeSantis victory. DeSantis' decision to sit out in 2024 and let Trump embarrass himself proves to be a smart decision, and he becomes the first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years, although he only won it by just under 1%.


2032

From here on out, we don't know what the electoral vote distribution will be. The only 'fair' thing to do would be to continue the current allocation, since anything else would be speculation subject to bias.



Governor Bee Nguyen (D-GA) / Senator Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) - 345 EV / 51% PV
President Ron DeSantis / Vice President Tim Scott - 193 EV / 48% PV


2036



President Bee Nguyen (D-GA) / Vice President Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) - 270 EV / 49% PV
Republican Candidate (R-?? / Republican Candidate (R-??) - 268 EV / 50% PV

Nguyen wins narrowly re-election due to a good economy and a competent response to the Social Security Crisis and Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But Republicans were able to put up a good fight by emphasizing the rising crime rate and surge of illegal immigration. 

This is the first time that the Republicans have won the popular vote and lost the electoral college.


2040



Democratic Candidate (D-??) / Democratic Candidate (D-??) - 249 EV / 50% PV
Republican Candidate (R-??) / Republican Candidate (R-??) - 289 EV / 48% PV

For the second time in a row, and the fourth time in 40 years, there is a split between the winner of the electoral college and the popular vote. Because of this, there is speculation that enough states will sign on to the NPVIC, ending this nonsense.

[Ferguson97]

2024: Biden defeats Trump, winning every state he won in 2020 + NC, winning 319-219.
2028: Harris defeats some right-wing freak, but loses NC/WI/AZ/NV, winning 276-262.
2032: Youngkin defeats Harris, flipping PA and his home state of VA, winning 294-244.
2036: Youngkin defeats a progressive Dem, flipping New Hampshire and New Mexico, winning 303-235. He is the first Republican to win the popular vote since Bush in 2004.
2040: A currently unknown Democrat defeats Youngkin's VP, flipping back New Mexico, Arizona, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Nevada - and even winning Alaska, and finally Texas, in a 362-176 landslide.
2044: Incumbent Democrat wins re-election, defeating a US Senator. The Republican flips back Texas, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Alaska, giving the Democrat a 293-245 victory.

[Ferguson97]

A lot depends on when or if the electoral college is abolished.

It probably won't happen before 2029, but it could happen after that, although even that might be unlikely.

Unless you're bullish on the NPVIC, we're not abolishing the electoral college.