IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2 (user search)
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  IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2  (Read 12693 times)
Virginiá
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« on: September 23, 2018, 08:40:17 PM »

2. I dont know what your obsession with beating down on rural voters is. Many of these guys have had the biggest swing towards Democrats. Its been the suburbs, the ones who voted for him by plugging their nose, and swung a bit Clinton, that have been the biggest obstacle. The fact that we are competitive in MT, and not in the GA suburbs show this.

That seems a little disingenuous. GA-06 might not have swung any further left, but it maintained it's 2016 swing more or less, and that is a big deal given how Republican-leaning it was before. Something I think you are not really noticing is that not only have Democrats improved somewhat on 2016 in some places, but a lot of suburban districts that flipped to Democrats at the presidential level in 2016 still reelected Republicans, but now appear poised to kick them out. Orange County, CA is an example (although Latino voters may necessitate waiting to 2020 to finish flipping all of those districts). Districts like CO-06, MN-02, MN-03, KS-03, IL-06, a smorgasbord of New Jersey districts and even some North Carolina districts.

Point being that I think you're undervaluing suburbs here. The evidence of their continued swings to Democrats is pretty well-established by now. Lastly, Montana is an interesting example. Democrats tend to do well there in statewide/federal races. They've had a bad run in the House seat, but not Senate elections. So it really shouldn't be that surprising. All this is to say that regardless of the merits of your argument, Montana isn't a good example for it.
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