IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2

[Blackacre]

This is a Tilts D race, and if you look at the special elections in Iowa, you shouldn't be surprised by this kind of result

[Blackacre]

Bloomberg said he would run third party if Sanders win nomination. Dems are gonna nominate BIDEN, Booker or Gillibrand

If anything, a run by Bloomberg as a 3rd option should pull away more moderate voters who held their nose last year for Trump, not the voters from the Democrats.

Sort of like a 1992 situation.

Bloomberg would appeal to approximately 5 Trump voters. If anything he'd be an outlet for Romney-Clinton voters who the Democrats very well may end up needing.

The idea that Romney-Clinton voters exist in large quantities is rather unfounded.


As you can see, only 8 seats are actually Romney-Clinton seats, compared to the 11 Obama-Trump seats. Their location is also important. All of the Obama-Trump areas are in the midwest and North East, areas the Dems need to win the presidency. The Romney-Clinton seats, however, are in rather unimportant areas, where them going for a 3rd party wont make a real difference.

Also, the way to win the EC in 2020 is through 3 states, MI, WI, and PA. Trump was able to win MI and WI on the backs of suburbanites who didnt really like him, and rural Rs who loved him. If Wakasuha county were to have a significant amount of votes go to Bloomberg, then Trump loses the state. Same with MI. PA is a bit more complicated, and as the suburbs there are more D friendly. But, if say the Democrat is a person who wins back Obama-Trump voters while losing Romney-Clinton voters, then the state is D once again.

Also, if you think that only white hicks voted for Trump and not, as data shows, a large amount of upscale suburbanites who didnt like Trump, and were open to a third option(like a rich guy former R who argued for good old Republican policies), then you may be in for a surprise.

(psst the real number is 13, you add the C-R-M and the C-R-O seats together)