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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
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Author Topic: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2  (Read 6292 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #25 on: September 23, 2018, 01:16:30 am »

Nice.

I knew this would become competetive and now it seems all the Rust Belt voters have a guilty conscience about electing Trump and swing heavily Dem (except OH-Gov., which remains uncertain).
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #26 on: September 23, 2018, 01:50:57 am »

Based off Iowaís swingy history, it shouldnít have been counted out in the first place.

BUT MUH 2016 VOTING PATTERNS ARE SET IN STONE FOREVER!!!!11!!1!!!
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #27 on: September 23, 2018, 03:21:51 am »

This might be a Tilt D race, tbh. Lol at the people who thought Iowa is unwinnable for Democrats after 2016.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2018, 04:26:37 am »


The incumbent usually has an advantage, but it does not show in the poll. She needs at least 45% approval at this stage of the electoral season to not be in deep trouble, and she does need a lead. She has neither. This gubernatorial race leans D. There is not enough time to both change the fundamentals and make a strong campaign for re-election.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #29 on: September 23, 2018, 04:41:44 am »

Bagel, its not R
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Blackacre
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« Reply #30 on: September 23, 2018, 08:51:07 am »

This is a Tilts D race, and if you look at the special elections in Iowa, you shouldn't be surprised by this kind of result
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #31 on: September 23, 2018, 10:44:11 am »

Pundits have underestimated Hubbell, BREDESEN, Kelly,of Kansas and Evers
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President Johnson
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« Reply #32 on: September 23, 2018, 10:54:00 am »

Toss-up. Reynolds at 41% isn't so well and Trump's dumb trade war may swing Iowa heavily towards the Democrats. Both closer to 40 rather than 50% isn't that meaningful, though. But I give Hubbell a 55% chance to win at this point.

Trump can't win without Iowa😁. He needs Reynolds and Walker to get reelected

LOL... state elections = / = federal elections. Especially with two years in between.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #33 on: September 23, 2018, 10:58:36 am »

BIDEN won Iowa along with Obama in 2012 and BIDEN is leaning towards running. Trump said he needs Walker reelected numerous times
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #34 on: September 23, 2018, 11:13:06 am »

If Hubbell, Finkenauer, and Axne win, and the Dems make substantial gains in the state legislature (and possibly even flip a chamber), then Ernst might be in some trouble in 2020.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #35 on: September 23, 2018, 12:47:20 pm »

This election strikes me as potentially sneaky important because Grassley is 85 years old.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #36 on: September 23, 2018, 01:18:29 pm »
« Edited: September 23, 2018, 01:21:41 pm by Cory Booker »

Grassley is done due to his role in Kavanaugh and Christie Vilsack can challenge Ernst now, since Iowa is beginning to turn on Grassley due to Ford allegations. Can't wait til Christie Vilsack challenges Ernst😁

Ernst is a yes vote for Kavanaugh.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #37 on: September 23, 2018, 01:45:20 pm »


Thatís because IA is more of a  democratic state than OH
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Everything Burns...
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« Reply #38 on: September 23, 2018, 03:53:46 pm »

But...but Atlas told me the Democrats blew this race by nominating evil establishment rich person Fred Hubbell.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #39 on: September 23, 2018, 04:07:05 pm »

If Reynolds, Blum and Young all lose, thatís terrible news for Joni Ernst and Trump's chances in IA in 2020.
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Holmes
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« Reply #40 on: September 23, 2018, 04:14:06 pm »

If Reynolds, Blum and Young all lose, thatís terrible news for Joni Ernst and Trump's chances in IA in 2020.

Maybe, but Democrats for example got blown out in Tennessee in 94 and Clinton still carried the state two years later. A lot can happen.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #41 on: September 23, 2018, 04:15:53 pm »

If Reynolds, Blum and Young all lose, thatís terrible news for Joni Ernst and Trump's chances in IA in 2020.

Maybe, but Democrats for example got blown out in Tennessee in 94 and Clinton still carried the state comfortably two years later. A lot can happen.

And Democrats lost the Illinois gubernatorial race, Senate race, and 4 House seats in 2010, and it didn't mean a damn thing for 2012.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #42 on: September 23, 2018, 04:25:37 pm »

BIDEN is considered the front riunner for Dem nod and Obama and BIDEN both won Iowa in 2012😁 Joni Ernst is vulnerable if Dems get Christie Vilsack to run😁
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #43 on: September 23, 2018, 04:26:34 pm »

If Reynolds, Blum and Young all lose, thatís terrible news for Joni Ernst and Trump's chances in IA in 2020.

Maybe, but Democrats for example got blown out in Tennessee in 94 and Clinton still carried the state two years later. A lot can happen.

Trump is much more polarizing than Clinton/Obama were and nowhere near as skilled a politician as them, plus he most likely wonít have the luxury of facing someone as or more unpopular as Clinton in 2020. Iím pretty sure Democrats will be as fired up in 2020 as they are right now, and I donít see any reason why the Trump 2016 voters who are either abandoning him right now or not showing up to vote at all will do so in 2020. If Republicans get crushed in IA this year, thereís no way the state is anything worse than Toss-up for Democrats in 2020. Iíd say itís even Lean/Likely D with someone like Sanders.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #44 on: September 23, 2018, 04:29:16 pm »

Bloomberg said he would run third party if Sanders win nomination. Dems are gonna nominate BIDEN, Booker or Gillibrand
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #45 on: September 23, 2018, 04:31:10 pm »

If Reynolds, Blum and Young all lose, thatís terrible news for Joni Ernst and Trump's chances in IA in 2020.

Maybe, but Democrats for example got blown out in Tennessee in 94 and Clinton still carried the state comfortably two years later. A lot can happen.

And Democrats lost the Illinois gubernatorial race, Senate race, and 4 House seats in 2010, and it didn't mean a damn thing for 2012.
At the very least, we can all agree that such a result should make Joni Ernst nervous.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #46 on: September 23, 2018, 04:32:32 pm »

Bloomberg said he would run third party if Sanders win nomination. Dems are gonna nominate BIDEN, Booker or Gillibrand
If anything, a run by Bloomberg as a 3rd option should pull away more moderate voters who held their nose last year for Trump, not the voters from the Democrats.

Sort of like a 1992 situation.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #47 on: September 23, 2018, 04:34:47 pm »

Christie Vilsack should consider this race not Tom Vilsack. Voters didn't vote for a rubber stamp for Trump and Ernst hasn't been moderate on anything
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IceSpear
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« Reply #48 on: September 23, 2018, 04:36:28 pm »

If Reynolds, Blum and Young all lose, thatís terrible news for Joni Ernst and Trump's chances in IA in 2020.

Maybe, but Democrats for example got blown out in Tennessee in 94 and Clinton still carried the state comfortably two years later. A lot can happen.

And Democrats lost the Illinois gubernatorial race, Senate race, and 4 House seats in 2010, and it didn't mean a damn thing for 2012.
At the very least, we can all agree that such a result should make Joni Ernst nervous.

Yes, in the sense that it means Iowa isn't the new Wyoming that is unwinnable for Dems even in waves, but very few if any people have been arguing that. It's just a strawman. Just because Dems can win Iowa in a wave like 2018 is shaping up to be doesn't mean it isn't trending heavily R and that Republicans are more likely than not to win it in a more neutral environment. Illinois didn't become a red state or a swing state just because Republicans dominated there in a wave.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #49 on: September 23, 2018, 04:39:29 pm »

Bloomberg said he would run third party if Sanders win nomination. Dems are gonna nominate BIDEN, Booker or Gillibrand
If anything, a run by Bloomberg as a 3rd option should pull away more moderate voters who held their nose last year for Trump, not the voters from the Democrats.

Sort of like a 1992 situation.

Bloomberg would appeal to approximately 5 Trump voters. If anything he'd be an outlet for Romney-Clinton voters who the Democrats very well may end up needing.
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