Bold Predictions: September Edition

[Progressive Pessimist]

-NJ-05 is the only district in NJ to flip. This is because Menendez's campaign tanks in the last couple weeks, and he only wins by a single percentage point

Nooooo! This better not happen!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems win Senate winning TX and TN while losing NV and FL. This might be first time happening winning control while losing incumbents.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My updated house guess as of today:

[Yellowhammer]

-Maria Elvira Salazar will win.
-The CA-Gov margin will be very similar to 2014.
-NM-Gov will be fairly close, with MLG winning by *only* 5-7 points.
-Leah Vukmir will fare significantly better than Jim Renacci. (both will lose, obviously)
-Jason Lewis will only lose by 1-2 points as Erik Paulsen loses by around 10.

[Bidenworth2020]

-Maria Elvira Salazar will win.
-The CA-Gov margin will be very similar to 2014.
-NM-Gov will be fairly close, with MLG winning by *only* 5-7 points.
-Leah Vukmir will fare significantly better than Jim Renacci. (both will lose, obviously)
-Jason Lewis will only lose by 1-2 points as Erik Paulsen loses by around 10.

most of these are pretty reasonable, though I want some non-internal polling before saying anything about fl-27

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Senate

Democrats take a razor thin 51-49 majority, flipping Nevada and Arizona, while losing none of their own seats.
The 2 closest races are Tennessee and Texas, both of which will be won by Republicans by less than 5%.
All other races will be decided by more than 5%, with the possible exception of California where there are 2 Democrats.
Dianne Feinstein is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the Country.
Bill Nelson wins in 2018 by a larger margin than he won in 2012.
Not only does Tim Kaine win big, but he also wins the White people vote.
Ben Cardin, Bob Menendez, and Jenny Wilson slightly underperform Hillary Clinton 2016 margins, while all other Senate Democratic candidates who are facing a Republican opponent races outperform her.
Angus King will not win on the 1st Count, but will break 60% on the 2nd Count.
Gary Johnson comes in 3rd place in New Mexico, and gets a lower percentage of the vote than he got in his 2016 performance in the state.

Governor

Charlie Baker will have the largest winning margin out of any winning Republican, and be the only one to break 60% of the vote.
Ben Jealous will win.
Gretchen Whitmer will have the largest winning margin out of every candidate to flip a state.
Kate Brown will break 60% of the vote.

[President Johnson]

Jacky Rosen loses narrowly after a recount, Phil Bredesen wins by four points.

[TheSaint250]

1. Ted Cruz wins by less than 2%.
2. Phil Bredesen wins by less than 1%.
3. Doug Ducey wins by more than 5%.

[Orser67]

Democrats pick up 50 seats in the House, and take every district Clinton won except for Katko and Valadao's districts. No Democratic seat flips except Lamb's.

Democrats defend all of their seats in the Senate and pick up AZ, NV, and TN.

Democrats pick up 10+ governorships.

[Politician]

More "bold" predictions:

Jacky Rosen wins by only one point (cue IceSpear/xingkurei/MT Treasurer butthurt)
Bill Nelson wins easily
Claire McCaskill has the closest race of any Dem incumbent
Sherrod Brown outperforms his 2006 margin
Joe Manchin wins by double digits.

Jack Bergman has a much closer than expected race
Due to the lack of a statewide race North Carolina Republicans lose 3 seats
VA-5 or WI-1 flip
FL-27 is extremely close due to the horrible Democratic nominee

Hogan wins easily
Dunleavy greatly underperforms polls and only wins by 2
Phil Scott just barely gets above 50%

[IceSpear]

Jacky Rosen wins by only one point (cue IceSpear/xingkurei/MT Treasurer butthurt)

How is that even a bold prediction though? The pundits and most posters here think that either Heller will win or that Rosen will only win by the skin of her teeth. So the actual "bold prediction" would be Rosen doing better than Clinton.

[Roblox]

My "bold" predictions.

-Brian Fitzpatrick loses
- Rosen will win by at least 6 points, and outperform Sinema easily.
-John Katko will come very close to losing, and it will either take all night to call his race or it requires a recount.

[Brittain33]

A popular governor at the end of their political career will lose their campaign for Senate.

"If Croesus goes to war he will destroy a great empire."

[jamestroll]

All four competitive House Races in Illinois fall to the Democrats (Il-06, IL-12, IL-13, IL-14).

All statewide offices in Illinois go to the Democrats by 15 point margins minimum.

MO-Sen will go down to the wire but Hawley barely wins due to rural trends.

Democrats still retake the senate despite the above result

[Continential]

Cruz will lose and Lamb will win by 15+ points

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anotha one, Manchin will lose.

[Pericles]

Bill Nelson wins by around 5-7 points.
Manchin wins by double digits.
Gianforte loses his seat.
Montana is one of the closest Senate races in the country.
Rosen wins by 5 while Sinema wins by 1.
Tennessee is won by less than a point(not sure which one ultimately wins).
Democrats win Kansas and Oklahoma gubernatorial races.
Dems gain a majority of governorships.
Donna Shalala wins by double digits or very close to it.
Menendez also wins by double digits in the end.
Tom MacArthur loses(idk if it's bold anymore though after the NYT poll)
Ojeda comes within single digits, but still loses
If I had to pick; Dems win Senate by gaining NV & AZ, losing no seats, while TX and TN go GOP. It'll be very close either way.
Dems get around 240 House seats(would be ironic if they do an exact switch with GOP get 240-195 or 241-194)
Polls underrate Democratic performance overall.