Democratic pickup prospects in 2020 senate elections?

[Jesus save us]

Too early? Who cares, let's speculate.

The first thing that strikes me about the 2020 senate class is that is has remarkably few vulnerable senators on either side. With the notable exceptions of Susan Collins, Doug Jones and Cory Gardner, all states are represented by the party that they voted for in the 2016 presidential election. It's a safe assumption that the Doug Jones and Gardner will both lose their seats, while Collins will hold hers(unless she retires)... and beyond that, there are very few obvious pick up opportunities for either party.

Democrats have a credible chance in North Carolina(a poll shows "generic Democrat" favoured over Senator Tillis). OTOH, Joni Ernst is strongly favoured over generic Democrat in Iowa. Besides that... Georgia is a possibility given it's blue drift. Montana isn't implausible, given it's record of voting Democrat on a state level and the possibility of either a Bullock or Schweitzer candidacy.

As for the Republicans? The only plausible targets I can see are Michigan and New Hampshire, though neither have been subject to any polling recently.

[Yellowhammer]

Tina Smith in Minnesota could also be a (long-shot) target for republicans. It will be interesting to see how much she underperforms Klobuchar in November.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CO and NC, and ME is a wildcard should Collins vote for Kavanaugh

[InheritTheWind]

Colorado and North Carolina are clearly the most promising. I wouldn't call Gardner DOA but he's awfully close, while Tillis is a terrible incumbent in a state with a good Dem bench.

Other potential pickups:
* Alaska: Begich stupidly deciding to run for governor kinda made this harder for Dems
* Georgia: Perdue has gone full nativist in a state getting more diverse by the minute
* Iowa: Ernst is a good candidate, but not invincible
* Kentucky: The Bluegrass State is stily fairly, uhm, blue downballot — and lord knows if Cocaine Mitch will run again
* Maine: I don't buy that Collins is safe; she's done a fantastic job at pissing off both party's bases
* South Carolina: Longshot, but if Lindsey Graham loses a primary to a nutjob then things could get interesting
* Texas: Ask me again after November
* West Virginia: Senator Richard Ojeda?

Of course, a lot of these are stretches. But if 2020 is a wave year, then this Senate class has the potential to be a disaster for the GOP.

[ON Progressive]

Colorado and North Carolina are clearly the most promising. I wouldn't call Gardner DOA but he's awfully close, while Tillis is a terrible incumbent in a state with a good Dem bench.

Other potential pickups:
* Alaska: Begich stupidly deciding to run for governor kinda made this harder for Dems
* Georgia: Perdue has gone full nativist in a state getting more diverse by the minute
* Iowa: Ernst is a good candidate, but not invincible
* Kentucky: The Bluegrass State is stily fairly, uhm, blue downballot — and lord knows if Cocaine Mitch will run again
* Maine: I don't buy that Collins is safe; she's done a fantastic job at pissing off both party's bases
* South Carolina: Longshot, but if Lindsey Graham loses a primary to a nutjob then things could get interesting
* Texas: Ask me again after November
* West Virginia: Senator Richard Ojeda?

Of course, a lot of these are stretches. But if 2020 is a wave year, then this Senate class has the potential to be a disaster for the GOP.

Can't ignore Montana if Bullock runs for Senate.

[Blair]

FWIW I'm worried that Gardner could easily be the cycle's Rob Portman.

[Zaybay]

FWIW I'm worried that Gardner could easily be the cycle's Rob Portman.

I doubt it, Rob Portman was in a tilt R state, which got even more R, and was rather popular, or at least lukewarm with the public. He was able to get support from the unions, and position himself excellently as conservative on social issues, and populist on economic ones, even though he isnt.

Cory Gardner is in a tilt D state, which is getting even more D, and is hated, being one of the most unpopular senators in America. The only issue he has to appeal to CO voters is the fact that he likes Marijuana, but I doubt that will be enough.

I think hes DOA, unless the CODEM really messes up. While Incumbency usually helps out a candidate, it can be a double edged sword if you happen to be unpopular, and without a base. In my opinion, Jones is in a safer position than Gardner, but thats a post for another day.

[InheritTheWind]

Colorado and North Carolina are clearly the most promising. I wouldn't call Gardner DOA but he's awfully close, while Tillis is a terrible incumbent in a state with a good Dem bench.

Other potential pickups:
* Alaska: Begich stupidly deciding to run for governor kinda made this harder for Dems
* Georgia: Perdue has gone full nativist in a state getting more diverse by the minute
* Iowa: Ernst is a good candidate, but not invincible
* Kentucky: The Bluegrass State is stily fairly, uhm, blue downballot — and lord knows if Cocaine Mitch will run again
* Maine: I don't buy that Collins is safe; she's done a fantastic job at pissing off both party's bases
* South Carolina: Longshot, but if Lindsey Graham loses a primary to a nutjob then things could get interesting
* Texas: Ask me again after November
* West Virginia: Senator Richard Ojeda?

Of course, a lot of these are stretches. But if 2020 is a wave year, then this Senate class has the potential to be a disaster for the GOP.

Can't ignore Montana if Bullock runs for Senate.

D'oh! Knew I missed one.

[Blackacre]

These can be divided into a few categories for Democrats:

Low-hanging fruit - Colorado

Swing-state targets - North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Arizona-Special

Retirement/Primary Watch - Maine, (without Collins) South Carolina (without Graham)

Dem Downballot Miracles - Montana, Alaska, Kentucky (with McConnell)

Wave Insurance Recommended - Texas, Kentucky, (without McConnell) Maine, (with Collins) South Carolina, (with Graham) Mississippi, Louisiana, South Dakota

Bonus Round, GOP Pickup Opportunities:

Low-hanging fruit - Alabama

Swing-state targets - New Hampshire

Wave Insurance Recommended - Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alaska with Berkowisk, CO with Cary Kennedy and NC and AZ special and ME, 5 vulnerable seats

[IceSpear]

People here seem to be assuming that 2020 will be a great year for the Democrats just because 2018 is looking like it will be, just like how the GOP thought 1996/2012 would be slam dunks after 1994/2010.

[Mr. Smith]

People here seem to be assuming that 2020 will be a great year for the Democrats just because 2018 is looking like it will be, just like how the GOP thought 1996/2012 would be slam dunks after 1994/2010.

GOP thought 2016 would be reasonable after 2014... they were right. Dems thought well of 2008 after 2006, they were right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If 2018 is a wave year, then Dems will have a great 2020. Alot of the purple states: NH, CO, VA and MI are in states that that Dem incumbents are doing well; except for Co, but its a pickup. So, with Cooper strong reelection bid, they have to target NC and ME, due to Collin's vote on Kavanaugh.

[IceSpear]

People here seem to be assuming that 2020 will be a great year for the Democrats just because 2018 is looking like it will be, just like how the GOP thought 1996/2012 would be slam dunks after 1994/2010.

GOP thought 2016 would be reasonable after 2014... they were right. Dems thought well of 2008 after 2006, they were right.

Yeah, exactly. We have no idea what the political environment will be like in 2020.

[Zaybay]

People here seem to be assuming that 2020 will be a great year for the Democrats just because 2018 is looking like it will be, just like how the GOP thought 1996/2012 would be slam dunks after 1994/2010.

GOP thought 2016 would be reasonable after 2014... they were right. Dems thought well of 2008 after 2006, they were right.

Yeah, exactly. We have no idea what the political environment will be like in 2020.

Yeah, right. We can know a lot about the 2020 environment just based off what we know today.
-2018 will be a wave year for Dems
-the economy will falter, how much is unknown
-Tariffs will continue
-Trump will likely be unpopular unless he can completely change his character
-The Dem will likely be mediocre to strong
-Dems will show up to the polls
Based on all of this info, its safe to say 2020 will be a Dem leaning environment, how much, I am uncertain, but baring any crazy events, this is it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC, CO and AK are my targets

[wesmoorenerd]

FWIW I'm worried that Gardner could easily be the cycle's Rob Portman.

I doubt it, Rob Portman was in a tilt R state, which got even more R, and was rather popular, or at least lukewarm with the public. He was able to get support from the unions, and position himself excellently as conservative on social issues, and populist on economic ones, even though he isnt.

Cory Gardner is in a tilt D state, which is getting even more D, and is hated, being one of the most unpopular senators in America. The only issue he has to appeal to CO voters is the fact that he likes Marijuana, but I doubt that will be enough.

I think hes DOA, unless the CODEM really messes up. While Incumbency usually helps out a candidate, it can be a double edged sword if you happen to be unpopular, and without a base. In my opinion, Jones is in a safer position than Gardner, but thats a post for another day.

Not to mention that Strickland ran a bad campaign, whereas in CO Hickenlooper or Perlmutter would probably run a very good campaign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rob Portman is very much the George Vonovich of the 2016 cycle, and like Brown, will stay in the seat as long as he wants it.

[GreatTailedGrackle]

Kyle Kondike at Sabato's Crystal Ball published the first professional analysis of the 2020 Senate map I've seen this election cycle, but I need twenty posts to include links, so I will just quote the bottom line predictions and hope that the next person links the article.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I largely agree with this, however I think that Jones in Alabama is basically in the same position in 2020 that Scott Brown was in 2012: unless he gets another amazingly awful opponent, he's a goner.  Unlike MA in 2012, it's likely that the president won't be popular nationally, but also unlike MA, Alabama is a very inelastic state and I get the impression Jones has worked with Trump far less than Brown worked with Obama.

I also think that if Trump's popularity stays where it is now, Montana, South Carolina, and Texas could be competitive depending on the Democratic candidates.  Montana is a very elastic state, and Kondike mentions that if Steve Bullock runs it could be competitive.  

Meanwhile Texas and South Carolina aren't quite as red as people tend to think they are, but they are relatively inelestic states, which helps the GOP for as long as they remain even slightly red. Graham in particular could be a weak incumbent because he is a former NeverTrumper who did an about-face.  Cornyn and Graham's speeches made a strongly negative impression on me at least, and I no longer think of Cornyn as "the sane one."  I'd say that Cornyn is still safer than Graham, but If Cruz goes down in this election, Cornyn may look even more out-of-touch, and it might also convince the national Democrats that Texas is worth investing in.  What I don't know is whether there are Democrats in Texas and South Carolina who are willing to run and who could repeat O'Rourke's success in fundraising and building statewide name recognition.

If Trump's popularity were to go down further, I feel like it is most likely to affect the agricultural states, which are already feeling the effects of his trade war.  This could potentially make Kansas, South Dakota, and Nebraska competitive, especially if Sasse faces a strong primary challenge.  However the remaining Southern states plus Idaho and Wyoming I can't imagine being competitive even if Trump gets Bush-in-2008 numbers, except Alabama, where Jones would no longer be a definite goner.

Conversely, I don't think that if Trump's popularity were to go up (even if his favorable and unfavorable numbers reversed), it would make any of the blue states Kondike rated as safe competitive, though his popularity going up combined with a retirement or a Menendez-level scandal could do it.  But I do think that a rise in his popularity to that level removes all potential Democratic pickup opportunities except Colorado, Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina, while helping Republican challengers in Michigan and Minnesota and possibly New Hampshire.  Even if his numbers end up evenly split, I would take Kentucky and Georgia off the list, and potentially Iowa, though his trade war may throw a wrench into that race.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Maine, only if Collins retires or is primaried out.

[GreatTailedGrackle]

Maine, only if Collins retires or is primaried out.

I don't think that's true.  As another thread noted, at least one poll showed her approval ratings currently underwater.  Collins has moved noticeably to the right recently, and I am definitely not the only person who has noticed that whenever McConnell needs her to be the deciding vote for something, she is.  That wouldn't be as much of an issue with a normal president, but when Collins has cast herself a a voice of reason against Trump, it feels positively dishonest that she will further his agenda whenever McConnell needs her to.

Now, Maine is a small, very quirky state, which means her incumbency advantage is going to be quite strong, unless she retires or is primaried.  If she runs and doesn't face a strong primary challenge, it will be an uphill climb for anyone to beat her.  But if she continues to have underwater popularity ratings two years from now, or even fails to regain the popularity she once had with Democrats and independents, then she is definitely vulnerable.

[Virginiá]

I like what GreatTailedGrackle wrote, but I am skeptical of the "potentially competitive" states. Virginia is just not going to be competitive, and Minnesota/Michigan always seem to be a target but haven't moved. I'd also have to know who is running first in New Hampshire, but again, not convinced.

Part of my skepticism is that I'm expecting a Trump performance that is notably worse than his first run, but I haven't settled on how much worse. He really started from a bad spot and he has done nothing to make it better and in fact is making it impossible to appeal to anyone outside his base. So even if one were to whip out the "but 2012" angle, you still have to contend with the fact that Obama lost almost half his winning margin. By that metric, Trump can't win. I'm not even trying to take this for granted either. It's just hard to see a path. And Trump losing by, say, 4 points or so, would be a very good thing for Democratic Senators running for reelection.

People here seem to be assuming that 2020 will be a great year for the Democrats just because 2018 is looking like it will be, just like how the GOP thought 1996/2012 would be slam dunks after 1994/2010.

GOP thought 2016 would be reasonable after 2014... they were right. Dems thought well of 2008 after 2006, they were right.

Yeah, exactly. We have no idea what the political environment will be like in 2020.

Yeah, right. We can know a lot about the 2020 environment just based off what we know today.
-2018 will be a wave year for Dems
-the economy will falter, how much is unknown
-Tariffs will continue
-Trump will likely be unpopular unless he can completely change his character
-The Dem will likely be mediocre to strong
-Dems will show up to the polls
Based on all of this info, its safe to say 2020 will be a Dem leaning environment, how much, I am uncertain, but baring any crazy events, this is it.

A few things:

1. Historically-speaking, it should (for whatever reason(s)) before the end of 2020, but there is no guarantee. Expansions have been lasting longer over the past couple generations. And boy would it suck if Trump got booted out only for a Democrat to take office and immediately face a small-medium recession . But the game of chicken with the tariffs may bring it upon us sooner than it would have otherwise, maybe?

2. If Obama could barely bring his approvals back even with a steady hand in governance and relatively scandal-free administration, then there is simply no way Trump can. I just don't buy it. I would argue that he destined to live out the remainder of his presidency with approvals where they are at now or lower, depending on how the economy goes. We have to keep in mind that once Democrats flip the House, they are going to turn over every rock that Republicans let be over these first 2 years, and there is likely an unusual amount of dirt there. At the very least that will probably keep them from going any higher, if not drive them to a lower average.

3. I think users may not be fully appreciating the degree to which Democrats show up in 2020 if Trump (1) remains unpopular and (2) continues enraging Democrats and basically everyone who isn't his hardcore base. This would be worse if Democrats nominate a decent candidate who can inspire people. Even with the ongoing movement of WWC voters to the GOP, who tend to turn out more in presidential years, Democrats still have the lion's share of infrequent voters who do tend to show up during presidential years, so long as they have proper motivation. Even without a rock star candidate, half that equation is still filled and it'll bring these people to the polls. In the end, it won't take too much to push Trump over the edge, as he barely won to begin with.

[GreatTailedGrackle]

As a New Englander, I can speak to New Hampshire better than most states. A large chunk of the electorate are white, college-educated, white-collar, "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" voters who moved there from Massachusetts (and to a lesser extent from other New England states) because of annoyance over overregulation and taxes, and these people probably represent the median voter there.  New Hampshire voters also tend to be contrarian and in favor of throwing the bastards out the moment they do something New Hampshire voters dislike.  There are times that New Hampshire seems to have an anti-incumbency bias.

I cannot imagine Trump winning New Hampshire, but I can definitely imagine Jeanne Shaheen doing something to piss off enough New Hampshire voters that they are willing to back her opponent, even while they vote against Trump in the presidential election. It's not likely, but its definitely possible.  It's also not without precedent.  In 2004 New Hampshire voters overwhelmingly reelected Judd Gregg, while also being the only state which had supported W. in 2000 to support Kerry in 2004.

I will say that you are probably right about Virginia, and not just because of your name.  It's probably where Oregon was a few cycles ago: a former red state that's turned a purplish blue really quickly, but was red so recently and has large enough swathes of deep-red territory that the state as a whole seems more competitive than it really is.

On the other hand, Minnesota and Michigan have both been trending redder, but very slowly.  They are also places where Trump's combination of social conservatism and economic populism plays well, though I am not sure about Trump himself.  Michigan barely went for Trump and Minnesota barely went for Hillary, but since presidential elections with incumbents are generally referendums on incumbents I would expect both to be bluer this time around unless he improves his ratings.  However if his does improve his ratings, or if the voters split their tickets, then those states could be competitive in the Senate.

3. I think users may not be fully appreciating the degree to which Democrats show up in 2020 if Trump (1) remains unpopular and (2) continues enraging Democrats and basically everyone who isn't his hardcore base.

Speaking as someone who definitely isn't his hardcore base but who voted Johnson/Weld in 2016, I fully agree with this.  At this point I am so angry at Trump and most of the congressional GOP caucus that I am willing to vote for almost any of the 2020 Democratic hopefuls if they get the nomination.  I am probably even willing to vote for Sherrod Brown or Oprah if it comes to that.

This would be worse if Democrats nominate a decent candidate who can inspire people.

Fortunately for Trump, that seems unlikely.  Fortunately for the rest of us, the Democrats don't have anyone running who is nearly as unpopular with everyone who isn't a registered Democrat as Hillary was.